*** 2016 Game 3 "Expert" Picks: Oregon at Nebraska***

[Saunders]

2016 Game 3 “Expert” Picks: Oregon @ Nebraska

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CollegeFootballNews.com

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/oregon-nebraska-game-preview-fearless-prediction-line-tv

 

Why Oregon Will Win

The offense still works.

It might not be quite the high-octane point-per-minute fest it was a few years ago under Marcus Mariota, but it’s not all that far off with Dakota Prukop stepping in and throwing well, the running game rolling without a problem, and the explosion coming back.

The problem is with the timing and tempo – they’re not quite there yet – but that seems like it’s more of an early-season issue and not a big problem. Once Prukop gets in a little more work, this thing should be going at warp speed.

But is it ready now? Can the Oregon offense be dangerous enough to get past a suddenly-strong Husker defense?

Wyoming had its chances against Nebraska – don’t be fooled by the 52-17 final. The Huskers exploded in the fourth quarter, but they were helped a ton by mistake after mistake as UW QB Josh Allen couldn’t stop giving the ball away. Oregon lost a few fumbles early, but it’s not going to make the massive errors to give Nebraska a whole slew of easy chances.

Royce Freeman is averaging over nine yards per carry so far, the line is doing a decent job of coming together – it’s the one big question mark other than Prukop coming into the season – and overall, there haven’t been too many concerns other than …

 

Why Nebraska Will Win

The Oregon pass defense has been shockingly mediocre.

One of the key unnoticed aspects to Oregon’s run to the national title game a few years ago was the play of a strong, aggressive defense. It’s not in place so far this season.

 

Of course, everyone has to try bombing away to keep up the pace, but the Duck secondary hasn’t been tight when the outcomes have still been in doubt, giving up over 300 yards to UC Davis and struggling for a stretch against a mediocre Virginia attack.

 

This isn’t a ball-control Nebraska offense, but it’s been good so far at keeping drives alive and controlling the clock. As always, Oregon doesn’t care about time of possession, looking to score as quickly as possible with an avalanche of points. However, Nebraska might have the offense to take the Ducks out of their game, and this year, if last week away any indication, it’s got the firepower to keep up.

 

Just when the Nebraska offense started to struggle a bit against Wyoming, what did it do? Tommy Armstrong was fantastic, throwing for 412 yards and four scores including two to Jordan Westerkamp, who came up with a big-time scoring play to all but put the game away.

 

What’s Going To Happen?

Expect a thriller.

This isn’t the Nebraska team of last year. It’s playing with more efficiency, effectiveness, and confidence with the offense not making big mistakes and the defense – somewhat surprisingly – holding up well on the defensive front.

Oregon hasn’t looked the part yet of a Pac-12 killer in search of a playoff spot, but this could be the moment when it starts to pick up a bit more national love. Prukop will be fine, but this is Royce Freeman’s day.

Nebraska bottled up Wyoming’s Brian Hill, and the back seven has swarmed over the first two games to keep either of the Mountain West teams on the slate from breaking off anything too big, but Oregon’s offense is about to work. The Huskers will play well, but Freeman will be that much better.

 

Oregon 34 - Nebraska 30

 

(Part 2)

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/week-3-college-football-expert-picks-predictions

 

Fiu - O

Russ - O

Rich - N

Phil - O

Crow - N

Con - O

Dave - O

Jere - O

Chris - N

Schmo - O

Cluck - O

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BTN.com

http://btn.com/2016/09/13/polls-its-time-to-pick-your-week-3-big-ten-winners/

 

Tom Dienhart: Nebraska 33 - Oregon 30

Sean Merman: Oregon 34 - Nebraska 31

Brent Yarina: Nebraska 40 - Oregon 37

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CBSSports.com

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/3

Dennis Dodd - O

Jon Solomon - N

Jerry Palm - N

Tom Fornelli - O

Robby Kalland - O

Ben Kercheval - N

Chip Patterson - O

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John Conzano - The Oregonian

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2016/09/canzano_vlog_why_nebraska_beat.html

I don't love Nebraska's football team. Let's get that straight up front. They're flawed. They play stupid at times. They're not great. Sometimes, they don't even look good. But they're going to beat Oregon on Saturday playing at home.

 

Oregon's front seven on defense are ordinary. The defensive tackles in Brady Hoke's 4-3 scheme aren't play makers and the Huskers must have seen what we all saw vs. UC Davis and Virginia. I think Nebraska will have a lot of success running the ball, passing the ball... spiking the ball in the end zone, etc. I don't see fewer than 40 points for Nebraska's offense vs. Oregon... and one more thing... the Huskers feel like they're playing for so much more than the Ducks.

 

Nebraska 44 - Oregon 30

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Big Red Wrap-Up

http://netnebraska.org/interactive-multimedia/sports/big-red-wrap-oregon-prediction

 

Kevin Kugler: Oregon 35 - Nebraska 31

Blake Lawrence: Nebraska 38 - Oregon 31

Sean Callahan: Nebraska 41 - Oregon 37

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Daily Nebraskan

http://www.dailynebraskan.com/sports/football-score-predictions-nebraska-vs-oregon/article_596797fa-7897-11e6-a193-4b4b2114a631.html

 

Brett Nierengarten: Nebraska 38 - Oregon 35

Riley Bowden: Oregon 38 - Nebraska 34

Michael Dixon: Nebraska 35 - Oregon 31

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FEI Projections

http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-game-projections/

 

Oregon 35 - Nebraska 28

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FootballStudyHall

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/9/15/12912962/college-football-week-3-picks-projections-schedule-tv-listings

 

S&P+: Oregon 38.5 - Nebraska 36.2 (Oregon 55.3% Win probability)

F+: Oregon By 3.1

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ESPN FPI

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400869113

 

Nebraska 74.2% Win

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ESPN Blogger Breakdown

http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/136415/breaking-down-the-matchup-between-nebraska-and-no-22-oregon

Nebraska and No. 22 Oregon will meet for the first time in 30 years on 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Memorial Stadium – but there will still be quite a bit of familiarity on the sideline. Nebraska coach Mike Riley faced these Ducks 14 times during his tenure at Oregon State from 1997-98 and 2003-14. Pac-12 reporter Chantel Jennings and Big Ten reporter Josh Moyer break down the matchup between the Ducks and Cornhuskers.

 

How to beat Oregon: Run the ball well. Brady Hoke’s Oregon defensive unit hasn’t picked up the 4-3 defense quite as quickly as it seemed to have happened at Michigan in 2011. Against Virginia last weekend the Ducks allowed 11 rushes of 10 or more yards -- it’s second-most ever allowed in the Mark Helfrich era. Hoke has spent a lot of time harping on how Oregon’s tackling needs to improve; the Cavaliers picked up 79 rushing yards after contact (nearly two yards per rush) against the Ducks. So, if the Cornhuskers can run the ball well with Devine Ozigbo (and add some carries from Tommy Armstrong Jr.), they’ll put themselves in a good spot. -- Jennings

 

How to beat Nebraska: Go for the big play. Maybe this goes without saying when you play a team with the speed of Oregon. But the Huskers have struggled in this department and, if Oregon takes advantage, it could be a long day in Lincoln. Since the start of Riley’s tenure at Nebraska, only a half-dozen Power 5 defenses have allowed more big plays (83) of at least 20 yards. And only two -- Arizona State and Indiana -- have allowed more big plays through the air. On the other end of it, Oregon is No. 2 in the Power 5 when it comes to producing said 20-plus-yard plays (110). If Nebraska doesn’t generate a pass rush, or the secondary plays like it did in 2015, it could be another huge day offensively for Oregon. -- Moyer

 

How Oregon beats you: Offensive weapons. Last week, quarterback Dakota Prukop seemed to settle into this Oregon offense. He aired it out, scrambled well and made the right decisions at the right time. If he’s playing well, it only makes the job of his talented offensive weapons that much easier. Oregon will look to pound on the ground with Royce Freeman, Kani Benoit and Tony Brooks-James. And then they’ll air it out with a slew of receivers who have diverse skill sets -- Devon Allen, Darren Carrington, Dwayne Stanford andPharaoh Brown. -- Jennings

 

How Nebraska beats you: Run, run, run. The Huskers’ offense has flashed quite a bit of versatility these first two weeks, running on 80 percent of their plays in Week 1 and then throwing for 412 yards in Week 2. But, against the Ducks and their so-so front seven, the key is going to be to keep that run game going a la Stanford in 2012 and 2013. That’s really when Nebraska has been at its best. Since Riley took over, when Nebraska runs for more than 200 yards, it’s an undefeated 5-0. When it runs for 170 yards or less? Try 1-5. Riley’s crew can control the tempo against Oregon by establishing the run game, much like they did against UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl, and it’ll be hard to top them. --Moyer

 

Oregon's X factor: Offensive line. Prukop and Freeman need a young offensive line -- the Ducks start three redshirt freshmen along the O-line -- to get the job done. Though Prukop and Freeman can still make plays when the line’s play isn’t perfect, their production is certainly aided when the linemen are acting as a well-oiled machine and not picking up penalties every other down. --Jennings

 

Nebraska's X factor: QB Armstrong. As Huskers fans know, he can almost single-handedly win you the game -- or lose it. Armstrong is a streaky, strong-armed passer who can take off running and has the ability to turn a game on its head. Against a top-15 pass defense in Minnesota last season, he completed 69 percent of his passes and boasted a QBR of 95.8 en route to a win. Against Miami’s No. 38 pass defense, he completed less than half his attempts and tossed three interceptions en route to a loss. If Armstrong is consistent and doesn’t turn the ball over, it’s hard to beat those Cornhuskers. But if the turnover-prone Armstrong shows up, well, then it’s another story. -- Moyer

 

Predictions:

Jennings: I think the Cornhuskers jump out to a quick lead on the Ducks but by the end of the second quarter/beginning of the third quarter, the Ducks will have made it a game. At that point, it’ll come down to which defense can make the greater number of plays. And since I’ve yet to see Hoke’s defense really stand out, my nod goes to Mark Banker and crew for this one.

Nebraska 48 - Oregon 38

 

Moyer: The Ducks’ speed on the outside is concerning, but Riley has really shown a commitment to the run -- and I like how that matches up against the Ducks. The secondary will be tested against Oregon, but they’ve proven to be opportunistic in the early going -- the Huskers lead the nation with seven interceptions -- and that should be enough for a close win.

Nebraska 38 - Oregon 35

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Athlon Sports

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/predicting-which-team-will-win-every-game-week-3-college-football

 

Steven Lassan: O

Mitch Light : O

Bryan Fischer: N

Jim Weber: O

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AP - Ralph D Russo

http://collegefootball.ap.org/article/oklahoma-ole-miss-facing-potential-september-elimination

 

Two fragile fan bases, with much skepticism for their coaches.Mental health on the line in Lincoln

Nebraska 38 - Oregon 32

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Prediction Tracker

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

The average of 50-plus computer projections has Nebraska favored by 2.6 points. On the high end, one projection has the Huskers winning by 15.67 points. The biggest projection for Oregon is a 7-point win.

 

Nebraska Win

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ESPN Big Ten Blog

http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/136441/week-3-b1g-game-picks-can-buckeyes-huskers-and-spartans-all-win

 

Brian Bennet: Nebraska 35 - Oregon 33

Josh Moyer: Nebraska 38 - Oregon 35

Dan Murphy: Nebraska 31 - Oregon 30

Jesse Temple: Oregon 38 - Nebraska 35

Austin Ward: Nebraska 34 - Oregon 33

 

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ESPN Pac 12 Blog

http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/103670/pac-12-week-3-game-picks-stanfords-title-defense-beings-against-usc

 

Kyle Bonagura: Oregon 38 - Nebraska 37

Kevin Gemmell: Oregon 45 - Nebraska 38

Chantel Jennings: Nebraska 48 - Oregon 38

David Lombardi: Oregon 41 - Nebraska 40

Ted Miller: Nebraska 35 - Oregon 30

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FOX Sports: Stewart Mandel

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/gallery/college-football-odds-spreads-lines-betting-week-3-alabama-ohio-state-notre-dame-mandel-091516

 

RB Royce Freeman is a stud, but Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo and Terrell Newby are also capable and going up against an atrocious Oregon rush D.

 

Nebraska 42 - Oregon 37

 

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More to come...

[Redux]

This should feel like a monumental game. But with the national perception of Nebraska being ho-hum and Oregons spotlight being fairly dim we are left with a marquee matchup that isn't getting the love it deserves.

 

This is going to be a hell of a game. GBR!

[BigRedBuster]

It sure feels like a monumental game to me. Maybe the national guys don't feel that way. But, I'm not concerned about that. Win this game and they start taking notice. This would even feel like a bigger game if I didn't have a friggen family wedding starting at 2:30 on Saturday.

 

PS.....the Oregonian guy sure doesn't like their team. Wow....

[Redux]

It's pretty telling that CoachT and the Oregonian writer are really down on thr Ducks. Glad this game is in Lincoln this year, I think we win this game handily if we can keep our mistakes to a bare minimum and exploit theirs every chance we get.

[commando]

looks like everyone thinks it will be a close game. hope that if it is that close that we have the ball last after watching all those last play losses last year.

[teachercd]

The fans have stopped selling out the stadium and there is chatter of interest starting to really fall off with the Ducks.

[Saunders]

The fans have stopped selling out the stadium and there is chatter of interest starting to really fall off with the Ducks.

Which is insane because they had one "down" year in which they only won 9 games for the first time since 2007.

[Landlord]

On the national scale it doesn't have the hype of a battle at bristol or a top 10 matchup, but inside the confines of Memorial on Saturday the fans are going to be rightfully screaming as if we're playing one of the top 5 programs of the last decade.

[hskrfan4life]

It sure feels like a monumental game to me. Maybe the national guys don't feel that way. But, I'm not concerned about that. Win this game and they start taking notice. This would even feel like a bigger game if I didn't have a friggen family wedding starting at 2:30 on Saturday.

 

PS.....the Oregonian guy sure doesn't like their team. Wow....

You know what you have to do.....

 

You must disown them...

 

They broke a rule.

[TAKODA]

I am not sure how the rest of you feel about the upcoming game but I feel tension. I have not felt this way for many years and I think it is because I would really love for the Huskers to get that Monkey off their back and start building their reputation for being a contender once again. We all have suffered immensely through the years with getting our hopes up, only to get them crushed.

 

To me, regardless of how high Oregon is ranked or not, I feel this is one of those statement games that we "need" to win. Win it, and we are on the right path. Lose it, and while it won't change our seasonal goals, it cements the same old feeling that we have a long ways to go.

 

The stadium needs to be rocking each possession Oregon has the ball. If the fans can create one miscue, or one bad play decision for Oregon, that might be the difference in the final score.

 

We need to unsettle Prukop and his go to guys.

 

I am tired of saying this but "Let's get this done"!

 

Do your part to bring the crowd to a frenzy in your section guys/gals.

 

I can assure you I will be pumping up anyone and everyone wearing red!

[NUinID]

It's pretty telling that CoachT and the Oregonian writer are really down on thr Ducks. Glad this game is in Lincoln this year, I think we win this game handily if we can keep our mistakes to a bare minimum and exploit theirs every chance we get.

 

Having watched the Ducks against UC Davis I definitely feel that this is not a vintage Oregon team. Their O and D lines are suspect. Their O-line is greener than than ours. They start 3 freshman. They have some real playmakers in Freeman and a couple of recrivers, but I think NU can slow them down. Defensively I just don't see Oregon being able to stop NU. Athlete wise they are better than Wyoming but schematically I don't think they are a whole lot better defesively. They didn' t get much pressure rushing the passer unless they brought the house, and when Davis or Virginia ran right at them they were able to move the ball running it. Davis also had 300 passing in the game.

 

I just don't know. I was a lot more uneasy about the Wyoming game, a classic trap game, than I am about this one for some reason. That is what worries me.

[Mavric]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BigTen/status/776088341708103681

Jennings: Nebraska 48-38. I think the Cornhuskers jump out to a quick lead on the Ducks but by the end of the second quarter/beginning of the third quarter, the Ducks will have made it a game. At that point, it’ll come down to which defense can make the greater number of plays. And since I’ve yet to see Hoke’s defense really stand out, my nod goes to Mark Banker and crew for this one.

Moyer: Nebraska 38-35. The Ducks’ speed on the outside is concerning, but Riley has really shown a commitment to the run -- and I like how that matches up against the Ducks. The secondary will be tested against Oregon, but they’ve proven to be opportunistic in the early going -- the Huskers lead the nation with seven interceptions -- and that should be enough for a close win.

[teachercd]

I am not sure how the rest of you feel about the upcoming game but I feel tension. I have not felt this way for many years and I think it is because I would really love for the Huskers to get that Monkey off their back and start building their reputation for being a contender once again. We all have suffered immensely through the years with getting our hopes up, only to get them crushed.

 

To me, regardless of how high Oregon is ranked or not, I feel this is one of those statement games that we "need" to win. Win it, and we are on the right path. Lose it, and while it won't change our seasonal goals, it cements the same old feeling that we have a long ways to go.

 

The stadium needs to be rocking each possession Oregon has the ball. If the fans can create one miscue, or one bad play decision for Oregon, that might be the difference in the final score.

 

We need to unsettle Prukop and his go to guys.

 

I am tired of saying this but "Let's get this done"!

 

Do your part to bring the crowd to a frenzy in your section guys/gals.

 

I can assure you I will be pumping up anyone and everyone wearing red!

I would imagine that the student section will be crazy packed and rocking. What time do they get in for the game?

[TAKODA]

 

I am not sure how the rest of you feel about the upcoming game but I feel tension. I have not felt this way for many years and I think it is because I would really love for the Huskers to get that Monkey off their back and start building their reputation for being a contender once again. We all have suffered immensely through the years with getting our hopes up, only to get them crushed.

To me, regardless of how high Oregon is ranked or not, I feel this is one of those statement games that we "need" to win. Win it, and we are on the right path. Lose it, and while it won't change our seasonal goals, it cements the same old feeling that we have a long ways to go.

The stadium needs to be rocking each possession Oregon has the ball. If the fans can create one miscue, or one bad play decision for Oregon, that might be the difference in the final score.

We need to unsettle Prukop and his go to guys.

I am tired of saying this but "Let's get this done"!

Do your part to bring the crowd to a frenzy in your section guys/gals.

I can assure you I will be pumping up anyone and everyone wearing red!

 

I would imagine that the student section will be crazy packed and rocking. What time do they get in for the game?

Varies game by game and opponent, but it seems to me that many of them are staying at their tailgates, parties, or roaming around until about 1/2 hour before game time. You know, drinking pepsi and eating health food!

[JJ Husker]

I am not sure how the rest of you feel about the upcoming game but I feel tension. I have not felt this way for many years and I think it is because I would really love for the Huskers to get that Monkey off their back and start building their reputation for being a contender once again. We all have suffered immensely through the years with getting our hopes up, only to get them crushed.

To me, regardless of how high Oregon is ranked or not, I feel this is one of those statement games that we "need" to win. Win it, and we are on the right path. Lose it, and while it won't change our seasonal goals, it cements the same old feeling that we have a long ways to go.

 

Absolutely agree. This one let's us know if we're headed in the right direction or if we're still treading water/drowning. Huge game.