Week 9 Preview: Wisconsin

[RedSavage]

 

 

 

two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

 

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.

How much is Tommie's injury bothering him? Will it be a factor. It seems like he has been throwing off of his back foot the last 2 games - thus bad throws. Missed a sure long TD throw against Purdue. Is it his injury or returning to bad habits? I hope he can spread the wealth this week to the receivers and open the door in the running game. We'll need it as Wisc LBs are fast and active.

it seems that way. But on that TD run, he sure looked fine.

 

I just cant help but think we've been saving him for this stretch. not running him more than we've had to. Just something that sticks out in my eyes last couple games is the overall lack of read options, RPO's and the designed qb runs. Knowing we can win those games with them. And when we lose that threat in the eyes of the defense, obviously it makes it easier to defend. i just wonder if Langs cuts him loose Saturday night like he did the Oregon game. Get back to playing 11 on 11.

His running looked fine to me as well. Throwing off the back foot was simply Tommy being Tommy. BUT, when he stepped into those throws, they were on a rope and money.

 

Like you said, we need to rely heavily on the RPO plays. Make their LB's sit back and wait, not just come straight up field. Get them leaning one way and go the other. Through our first 5 games, I thought Langs did a great job of exploiting the various defensive schemes. Not taking what we wanted or what they gave, but calling plays to nullify or slow JP their schemes. That will be key IMO.

 

Defensively we have got to get pressure Hornibrook and set the edge. Make Clement and Co, cut back inside. We can't let their RB's hit the edge and go. And for the love of all that's dear, watch the RB or TE dragging underneath. I'd also really, really, really, really like to see more press coverage at the LOS to disrupt their passing game. Their OL is typical Wisky OL....If we can't get pressure quickly, at least slow the receivers release to give the DL time to get in there.

 

I think this game is winnable.

 

I still don't think Tommy is quite 100%. I was in section 25 row 1 (so basically field level) and there were a couple times that Tommy got tackled (esp. in the 4th qtr.), that he got up and it looked to me like he was slightly hobbling. It wasn't glaringly obvious so I don't think it's too bad but I think he's more like 85-90%.

[GBRHouston]

We're last in punting? Caleb had a bad first couple of games, but he has gotten way better. I'm surprised.

[lo country]

We're last in punting? Caleb had a bad first couple of games, but he has gotten way better. I'm surprised.

I think they might take into account the blocked punts in that statistic.

[GBRHouston]

 

We're last in punting? Caleb had a bad first couple of games, but he has gotten way better. I'm surprised.

I think they might take into account the blocked punts in that statistic.

 

#fireread

[BigRedBuster]

This game is all mental for our team. They need to get over the mental block that makes them melt down against Wisconsin.

 

I think we have a coaching staff that can help them accomplish that.

 

Wisconsin is not more talented than we are. They have just had the mental edge.

 

And.....some fans have that problem too.....understandably.

[dvdcrr]

 

 

For the life of me I cant figure out why people think a team like NU that hasnt shown they can reliably drive the ball downfield against anybody, is going to beat a team like Wisconsin with one of the toughest Defensive units in America on the road. Wisconsin also knows if they win out All of their goals are still on the table. There is no and I mean no logical reason to believe Nebraska is going to win this game. "Hope" is not a good strategy for a season. I prefer "run blocking"

What were you doing during the whole 4th quarter against Illinois, Indiana, NW and Purdue, taking a crap? I will admit the offense has been pretty inconsistant the past couple of games, but to say that NU hasn't driven the ball downfield against anybody is a little bit of an exaggeration.

 

It is a bummer that Nebraska has some injuries to their offensive line, doesn't mean they can't come out and have a good game running the ball. Comparing how one team plays against another isn't really all that logical. Football is a sport about matchups and momentum.

 

So what are you doing around 6 on Saturday night, your obviously not watching the game since you already know who is going to win.

Charlie McBride today on hail varsity said the O line didnt look very mean. They are matching up against one of the best D in the country. And it will show. Going into a game saying "we know we cant run the ball but..." isnot a good thing. That is what Spurrier was thinking going into the NC game in 96. How did that work out? Its also like starting a 4 hour boat ride in a boat and saying well we know the bottom leaks, but hopefully we can bail pretty well.

[mnhusker]

If the offense line can take a step up on the health meter it will be a huge plus ........ one concern I have it that we better clean up the penalties, Wisconsin has been very disciplined and beating them on the road will require the team to be very disciplined.

[alwayshusking]

I think we're going to have to spread them out and have the pass open up the run to some extent. So we need Tommy to be on his game. Ideally we could get the pass game going and have some unexpected success on the ground similar to the MSU game last year.

 

Lining up in tight formations and pounding it right at them isn't to our advantage this year.

[Taylor21]

 

Wisconsin has played a much tougher schedule than our team and still has great defensive numbers...with pass defense featuring their worst overall rating by my count (z-score of 0.86 so still up there). Their offensive figures are another matter...with scoring offense being the worst category relative to national averages. The turnover margin category is another that gives me some hope. Outside of having managed a decent number of interceptions on defense and not fumbling the ball away on offense, their stats are all below average.

 

What am I spamming about? It's the z-scores, as usual (shown below):

 

Nebraska pass O 0.12, pass D 0.81, rush O 0.62, rush D 0.62, total O 0.38, total D 0.81, scoring O 0.68, scoring D 1.37, turnover margin 0.50, overall average 0.66, offensive average 0.45, defensive average 0.90, SOS 35.30

Wisconsin pass O -0.29, pass D 0.86, rush O -0.35, rush D 1.42, total O -0.29, total D 1.44, scoring O -0.68, scoring D 1.90, turnover margin -0.14, overall average 0.43, offensive average -0.40, defensive average 1.41, SOS 48.90

 

I calculated a spread just below (talking about hundredths at -7.42 to -7.5) what's posted now. I like to think my numbers are pretty conservative so that isn't a good sign. If Vegas's goes down, I still wouldn't consider taking the Badgers because of their offense and turnover margin. I wouldn't take us because of the difference in strength of schedule (SOS).

 

On the injury front, aren't they getting their stud LB back? Maybe he was back for the Iowa game?

 

I also lined the game at 7 1/2 ( and it opened up at that in spots) I'm waiting to hit + 10. Public will drive it up to that area, sharps will bring it back down before game time... Currently at +9 on my book

[Count 'Bility]

 

 

For the life of me I cant figure out why people think a team like NU that hasnt shown they can reliably drive the ball downfield against anybody, is going to beat a team like Wisconsin with one of the toughest Defensive units in America on the road. Wisconsin also knows if they win out All of their goals are still on the table. There is no and I mean no logical reason to believe Nebraska is going to win this game. "Hope" is not a good strategy for a season. I prefer "run blocking"

What were you doing during the whole 4th quarter against Illinois, Indiana, NW and Purdue, taking a crap? I will admit the offense has been pretty inconsistant the past couple of games, but to say that NU hasn't driven the ball downfield against anybody is a little bit of an exaggeration.

 

It is a bummer that Nebraska has some injuries to their offensive line, doesn't mean they can't come out and have a good game running the ball. Comparing how one team plays against another isn't really all that logical. Football is a sport about matchups and momentum.

 

So what are you doing around 6 on Saturday night, your obviously not watching the game since you already know who is going to win.

Charlie McBride today on hail varsity said the O line didnt look very mean. They are matching up against one of the best D in the country. And it will show. Going into a game saying "we know we cant run the ball but..." isnot a good thing. That is what Spurrier was thinking going into the NC game in 96. How did that work out? Its also like starting a 4 hour boat ride in a boat and saying well we know the bottom leaks, but hopefully we can bail pretty well.

i bet youre just prayin for us to get our ass whooped so you can tellus all off. Why are you so f'ing miserable. Take it elsewhere. Its not realist. Youre giving us no chance. And theres nothing realistic about that. Youre bein a straight up troll. Take it to twitter or somethin. Just get the hell off here. Youve made it pretty clear times before that you dont even watch much football anyway.

[drfish]

I think this is a pretty evenly matched game. Losing is not a foregone conclusion. I have been impressed that these Huskers seem to be able make plays when it counts on both sides of the ball. The defense has shown a lot of improvement during the year. Three sacks this last game, all by linemen. Also, with better long throws by Tommy there are probably 18 more points on the board. The long touchdown throw by Blough was almost tipped by one of the backers. Now, the Huskers will have to limit mistakes, which they haven't done that well on recently to beat Wisconsin, but I would not be surprised to see them win. A loss appears more likely, but this team has some real grit to it, too.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Riley seems to a good job getting this team to pay attention to games like this. No one is giving us a chance, it's a highly ranked opponent, it's a night game, etc. See MSU last season, that was a good team that we beat. People can say what they want, but this team has shown it has some fight. The years Bo was here when we'd get punched in the mouth we'd cower away from it. This team isn't doing that at this point and I doubt they're going to allow Wisconsin to change that. Now that doesn't mean we'll win this game for sure, it's gonna be tough, we're going to have to play smart and hard. But, I've been saying we haven't put 4 quarters of football together yet as a team. If we do.................I feel sorry for that team that lines up across from us because they're gonna be hurting! Take the 1st quarter and the 4th quarter, now do that in the 2nd and 3rd as well and we've got something.

[Count 'Bility]

I really like this fresh approach to treating big games like big games. I understand the need of consistent structure and the psychology of understanding the process of a whole season, but to me if you treat a big game like any other it probably wont go well. Coaches can say what they want but tgey all know damn well the players are treating this game differently than the purdue or indianaor illinois game. Now as a coach, you can either create additional tension and stress within yourself by fighting this or downplaying the moment (sound familiar?) or you can screw it and embrace it. I dont think niether is wrong. I just happen to like it one way over the other.

[BigRedBuster]

Line is Wisconsin -9 and over/under is 42.5.

 

Interesting.

[Count 'Bility]

Line is Wisconsin -9 and over/under is 42.5.

Interesting.

only if youre a gambler.