The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[teachercd]

2 minutes ago, Decked said:

Can be. I’ve been charged. You can either sit in a stand/blind or go after them. Usually I go stalk them. Probably the most fun hunting I’ve ever had. 

My friend did it out in Arkansas I think, he said it was a blast!!

[Decked]

15 minutes ago, teachercd said:

My friend did it out in Arkansas I think, he said it was a blast!!

Usually go to Texas for me. Should be going down 2 times in 2024. Yearly hunting w/a group & a bachelor party. 

[BigRedBuster]

4 hours ago, teachercd said:

No, the military should be able to vote as soon as they know who is on the ballot.  Voting should be as easy as possible at all times for everyone.  Sorry, I think I was not clear in my first post.

 

1.  Age needs to be changed to 16 and every US HS should be a voting station for the students that are 16 and want to vote.

2.  Military should be able to vote 24/7 once they know who they can vote for.

3.  There should be no voter registration at all

 

 

So, other people who are away from home that week for work  can’t vote unless they are in the military?

[teachercd]

15 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, other people who are away from home that week for work  can’t vote unless they are in the military?

Oh my god…no!

 

these are not the final answers… Once again, it should be as easy as possible to vote.

 

There should be no voter registration…you should able to be away from home and still vote.   No matter where you are at.

[Archy1221]

6 hours ago, teachercd said:

Oh my god…no!

 

these are not the final answers… Once again, it should be as easy as possible to vote.

 

There should be no voter registration…you should able to be away from home and still vote.   No matter where you are at.

2 week early voting should be max amount of time. 

[teachercd]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

2 week early voting should be max amount of time. 

Once the "two" are set...voting should open.

 

I mean, we are not far out from just voting from home and/or our phones, so it is only going to get easier.  I think.

[Dr. Strangelove]

On 12/22/2023 at 12:58 PM, Archy1221 said:

Electoral college hasn’t changed and he crushed trump in 2020

The gap between a Biden electoral college blowout and Trump winning was ~22k votes spread across 3 states. Furthermore, several swing states have populations who's electorate is drifting to the Right.

 

On 12/22/2023 at 5:51 PM, teachercd said:

Well, higher prices are bad.  I think we all agree with that.

 

I think close to 70% of the voting population voted in 2020.  How many new AND Trump voters would expect compared to new AND JB voters?

 

Also, how many people that voted for Trump last time won't vote for him?  How many that voted for JB last time won't vote for him?  That clearly favors JB.  

 

I do not personally know 1 new Trump voter, not one.

Voting participation was very high in 2020. But the election was extremely close. The Electoral College bias massively favors Republican candidates, and that bias is going to be slightly stronger in 2024. A Democrat probably needs to win the popular vote by 4.5-5% to overcome that bias, which frankly may not be possible. 

 

In other words, Trump (or any Republican) will go into the election with a high chance of winning simply because of the demographic nature of the Electoral College. Trump can lose the popular vote by even larger numbers but still win states like Wisconsin and Nevada simply because those states are drifting to the Right. Trump doesn't need much to win, a small number of non-participant 2020 voters showing up in swing states mad that Kate Spade purses are now expensive will be enough to push Trump over the top. 

 

On 12/22/2023 at 1:32 PM, sho said:

 

 

Popular vote is meaningless. Biden can win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the election. It's all about which states he wins, and Dems need to be careful because of this. We all know the red states and blue states.  It'll be once again the battleground states. Wisconsin, Ohio, MIchigan, Florida, Arizona etc. And with the 'Brain Drain' happening in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Indiana those states could start turning red instead of purple. Typically the young/educated group is a left lean and if they are leaving these states to go to California or a traditional blue state, it doesn't help Biden at all, the key then would be is enough of the drainage going to Texas, Florida etc to help recoup some of the lost electoral votes. If enough drainage happens to the Pacific coast and NY from the 'grain belt' area, regardless of the popular vote, Dems may not have enough electoral votes to ever win the presidency.

This is mostly correct, but I wouldn't say they can't win the Presidency ever again. It's more accurate to say that the post-Obama environment is one in which Republicans should've won elections easily until the 2030s but squandered that advantage by nominating Trump, who's easily the worst politician in American history. Democrats are winning elections when they have no business doing so.  (Shout out to the Trump voters making the impossible possible).

 

Eventually Texas and Georgia will be reliably blue, and North Carolina will truly swing depending on the election. Democrats won't face as much of a hill in the 2030s to win the Presidency. 

 

The Senate, however, will be lost to Democrats for a generation. They'll be lucky to control the chamber for 6 out of 20 years or 8 out of 30 years. 

[Moiraine]

Assuming the U.S. doesn't lose its form of government to dictatorship, it's unlikely one party holds power that long. If the Republicans hold the presidency and the Senate for 8-12 years, people will realize it didn't make things much better (and probably a lot worse), and then they will vote them out. Some of the currently conservative states will swing to moderate, and moderate states to left. Whoever is in charge gets judged, even for things that aren't really their fault.

The electoral college is currently unfavorable to Democrats, so they need to work on changing people's minds. They should have been working harder on that the past 30 years, and now they have a big hole to dig themselves out of. 

[teachercd]

But it can't be both ways.  It can't be that everything right now is great AND that people want change, it can't be that all the JB voters from last time are now going to change their mind and vote for Trump.  It can't be that Trump is the worst person ever AND gaining voters.  

 

Something is not adding up.  Either Joe is not as popular as we think or Trump is more popular than we think.

 

But like I said before, I do not know one new Trump voter but I do know people that will not vote for him.

 

I am guessing all of you can say the same.  

 

The idea that some states are getting "more red" doesn't add up if Trump is not getting new voters.

 

Joe vs Trump is another Joe victory, with ease.  

[Lorewarn]

2 hours ago, teachercd said:

The idea that some states are getting "more red" doesn't add up if Trump is not getting new voters.

 

 

Have you considered the idea that blue people moving away can make an area more red and there's no need to ponder in terms of adding new voters.

[teachercd]

3 hours ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Have you considered the idea that blue people moving away can make an area more red and there's no need to ponder in terms of adding new voters.

Are they?  The biggest blue person migration is probably from Cali to Texas.

[Dr. Strangelove]

14 hours ago, Moiraine said:

Assuming the U.S. doesn't lose its form of government to dictatorship, it's unlikely one party holds power that long. If the Republicans hold the presidency and the Senate for 8-12 years, people will realize it didn't make things much better (and probably a lot worse), and then they will vote them out. Some of the currently conservative states will swing to moderate, and moderate states to left. Whoever is in charge gets judged, even for things that aren't really their fault.

The electoral college is currently unfavorable to Democrats, so they need to work on changing people's minds. They should have been working harder on that the past 30 years, and now they have a big hole to dig themselves out of. 

Mississippi has been a s#!thole for the entirety of American history, and they routinely vote through Race as the sole factor politically. Making lives of the electorate isn't really necessarily; a candidate only has to hold the identity of voters in order to win. 

 

The country is split between uneducated-Rural voters and educated-Urban voters. Urban voters are going to be concentrated in just a handful of states, giving rural voters extreme power regarding the Senate. 

 

In short, political change is a lot less based on changing hearts and minds. It's based on long term demographic trends. 

 

12 hours ago, teachercd said:

But it can't be both ways.  It can't be that everything right now is great AND that people want change, it can't be that all the JB voters from last time are now going to change their mind and vote for Trump.  It can't be that Trump is the worst person ever AND gaining voters.  

 

Something is not adding up.  Either Joe is not as popular as we think or Trump is more popular than we think.

 

But like I said before, I do not know one new Trump voter but I do know people that will not vote for him.

 

I am guessing all of you can say the same.  

 

The idea that some states are getting "more red" doesn't add up if Trump is not getting new voters.

 

Joe vs Trump is another Joe victory, with ease.  

You still seem to assume that the nature of the election is static compared to 2020 and the idea that Trump needs new voters to win, he doesn't. 

 

Swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania are slowly become more and more Republican. Educated voters in those states (Democrats) often move (to places like Texas, Atlanta, or Phoenix). That leaves their populations slightly more Republican then the previous election which means that Republican candidates have a better chance to win them.

 

Democrats are caught in a time where swing states are turning Red faster than demographic shifts are making other states Blue. Eventually, those demographic shifts will slightly favor Democrats but that's in a decade. Right now, they have to fight an uphill battle. It's why traditional Republican candidates like Mitt Romney would EASILY win any election held between 2016-2032, the fundamentals massively favor Republicans at the moment. 

 

Luckily Republican voters are not concerned with pesky qualities Democrats focus on like "electability" and instead focus on candidates that reflect their perceived victimization and force them to take on enormously unpopular stances on nearly all social policy.

[teachercd]

7 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Mississippi has been a s#!thole for the entirety of American history, and they routinely vote through Race as the sole factor politically. Making lives of the electorate isn't really necessarily; a candidate only has to hold the identity of voters in order to win. 

 

The country is split between uneducated-Rural voters and educated-Urban voters. Urban voters are going to be concentrated in just a handful of states, giving rural voters extreme power regarding the Senate. 

 

In short, political change is a lot less based on changing hearts and minds. It's based on long term demographic trends. 

 

You still seem to assume that the nature of the election is static compared to 2020 and the idea that Trump needs new voters to win, he doesn't. 

 

Swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania are slowly become more and more Republican. Educated voters in those states (Democrats) often move (to places like Texas, Atlanta, or Phoenix). That leaves their populations slightly more Republican then the previous election which means that Republican candidates have a better chance to win them.

 

Democrats are caught in a time where swing states are turning Red faster than demographic shifts are making other states Blue. Eventually, those demographic shifts will slightly favor Democrats but that's in a decade. Right now, they have to fight an uphill battle. It's why traditional Republican candidates like Mitt Romney would EASILY win any election held between 2016-2032, the fundamentals massively favor Republicans at the moment. 

 

Luckily Republican voters are not concerned with pesky qualities Democrats focus on like "electability" and instead focus on candidates that reflect their perceived victimization and force them to take on enormously unpopular stances on nearly all social policy.

If educated voters were so educated they would not be moving from a state that could cost their educated vote the elections.

 

it seems, if those educated voters are so quick to turn their back on an easy win for social policy that perhaps, they really just care about themselves and not others??  Which is normal, most of us value ourselves over others.  

 

like I said, it’s all doom and glooming right now.  Not everyone that moves is a smart democrat and not everyone that stays is a dumb republican.  Trump has no new voters.  As long as Joe stays the course he wins with ease.  Then in 5 years we will finally have an election with people under the age of 90 running.

[Archy1221]

23 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

On 12/22/2023 at 12:58 PM, Archy1221 said:

 

The gap between a Biden electoral college blowout and Trump winning was ~22k votes spread across 3 states. Furthermore, several swing states have populations who's electorate is drifting to the Right.

And now The Big Guy has the power of the incumbency, which Trump had and still lost.  You yourself, said that was a huge advantage.  
 

Add in the wacko stuff Trump has said since Jan 2021 and it should be an easy landslide for the incumbent.  We might be talking an 8 point victory in popular vote totals. 
 

23 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Trump can lose the popular vote by even larger numbers but still win states like Wisconsin and Nevada simply because those states are drifting to the Right

Yet you don’t talk about states that have drifted left like Arizona and VA, or even more left like Colorado where Dems hardly have to spend resources anymore to win statewide?  That stuff matters. 

[teachercd]

11 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

And now The Big Guy has the power of the incumbency, which Trump had and still lost.  You yourself, said that was a huge advantage.  
 

Add in the wacko stuff Trump has said since Jan 2021 and it should be an easy landslide for the incumbent.  We might be talking an 8 point victory in popular vote totals. 
 

Yet you don’t talk about states that have drifted left like Arizona and VA, or even more left like Colorado where Dems hardly have to spend resources anymore to win statewide?  That stuff matters. 

https://www.statista.com/chart/12484/population-growth-in-the-united-states-by-federal-state/#:~:text=Demographics&text=Florida and Idaho are America's,July 2021 to June 2022.

 

Kind of interesting.  Never would have guessed that Idaho is gaining a lot of population.