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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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20 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Democrats keep winning elections.

 

That is a huge change in just two years. Could probably draw a straight line from overturning Roe to all of these results.

 

 

This is interesting, and you may be correct on your supposition. But perhaps this is the wrong thread?

 

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32 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Democrats keep winning elections.

 

That is a huge change in just two years. Could probably draw a straight line from overturning Roe to all of these results.

 

 

This election is going to be a landslide for Joe.  

 

Prediction:  Trump leaves the US shortly after the election.  He is toast.

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39 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

This is interesting, and you may be correct on your supposition. But perhaps this is the wrong thread?

 

 

It is the correct thread. Abortion rights are on the ballot. If Biden doesn't win, abortion will be criminalized early in the next term. 

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17 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

It is the correct thread. Abortion rights are on the ballot. If Biden doesn't win, abortion will be criminalized early in the next term. 

The worst thing that happened to the Repubs was the reversal of Roe V Wade.  It is an issue to run on, but you don't want it to actually happen like this.  I told my wife the republicans are now going to lose on this issue.  For once, I was right.  

 

I am sure there are other issues that parties run on that they don't want to actually change.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

The worst thing that happened to the Repubs was the reversal of Roe V Wade.  It is an issue to run on, but you don't want it to actually happen like this.  I told my wife the republicans are now going to lose on this issue.  For once, I was right.  

 

I am sure there are other issues that parties run on that they don't want to actually change.

 

 

Yes they are taking the brunt of the SCOTUS ruling.  But everyone forgets that it was the correct ruling.   Congress never codified abortion into the system and therefor it should have always been a States Rights issue for each state to decide.   It was a correct sound decision unlike the previous SCOTUS decision. 
 

Congress is free to make an abortion law and a President sign it.  At that point, it no longer is a States Rights issue and all states abide by it.  
 

Interesting nugget, not withstanding the fear mongering by the poster you replied to, Trump seems to want to support a 15week(ish) abortion  ban with exceptions for life of mother, rape, incest.   That is a longer time period than many of the EU countries that our posters want us to so desperately follow, yet someone is going around saying abortion will be criminalized in the early next term.  
 

 

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22 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

The worst thing that happened to the Repubs was the reversal of Roe V Wade.  It is an issue to run on, but you don't want it to actually happen like this.  I told my wife the republicans are now going to lose on this issue.  For once, I was right.  

 

I am sure there are other issues that parties run on that they don't want to actually change.

 

 

It's the ultimate "be careful what you wish for." The Republicans have been playing a decades-long game to stack the Supreme Court and overturn Roe, and now they're setting their sights on Obergefell, trans rights, religious exemptions to discrimination laws, etc. 

 

Problem is, when that plan was hatched, America was a very different place. Today more people want freedom of choice, freedom to have the consensual sex they want to have, they want legal weed, they want the government out of their reproductive lives, sex lives and healthcare. 

 

The country changed, but Republicans didn't. I think that's going to bite them hard, starting this year (although it really started in 2022).

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56 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

It is the correct thread. Abortion rights are on the ballot. If Biden doesn't win, abortion will be criminalized early in the next term. 

So 6k votes, (less than 2%) for an open State legislature seat the middle of Alabama, directly affects this Presidential election thread. In a State legislature that is 75% republican. 

 

Okay.

 

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8 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

So 6k votes, (less than 2%) for an open State legislature seat the middle of Alabama, directly affects this Presidential election thread. In a State legislature that is 75% republican. 

 

Okay.

 

 

If you care at all about data this is just another drop in the bucket. The stack of special elections so far is very decidedly blue since the Roe decision so that indicates this is a very salient issue on a district level.

 

What we make of that on a national level is up to us. But it is staggeringly different than the top line general election poll numbers.

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34 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

So 6k votes, (less than 2%) for an open State legislature seat the middle of Alabama, directly affects this Presidential election thread. In a State legislature that is 75% republican. 

 

Okay.

 

It also shows that Republicans are not motivated to get out and vote in this area.  Neither are Dems, but at least enough got out to win the election.

 

The vast majority of elections since RvW went down, have been decidedly Democrats.  When you look at them as a whole, it should be a major concern for Republicans.

 

Also, yes, this is just a state legislature seat....and, Alabama is decidedly Red there.  However, these things can change over time.  And, that's where Republicans hold a lot of power in states.

 

Republicans need to figure out how to be a party that appeals to people because they like their policies and not a party of fear and hate.  That's turning a lot of people off and it's showing.

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34 minutes ago, knapplc said:

The country changed, but Republicans didn't. I think that's going to bite them hard, starting this year (although it really started in 2022).

 

It seems that the party that can read the tea leaves the best, creates  for themselves the better future.  More and More I think 2024 will be in Trump's words "A bloodbath".  More GOPers are leaving congress either earlier or deciding not to run.   I suspect Biden will win- ultimately with ease - and the Dems will take control of House and Senate.  It will be a bloodbath for the GOP as trump endorsed candidates far and wide get trounced at the polls.

 

In the 1950-60s the GOP seemed to have the upper hand on the civil rights issue. It was southern Dems who were blocking everything on that issue. But a switch happened.  Before long the GOP became the party that replicated George Wallace desires.  The Dems became more involved as a whole in promoting civil rights as they pushed the old southern representatives out - we found those representatives fleeing to the GOP. 

 

As you mentioned above, the GOP as configured today cannot read the tea leaves.  They are holding hard to old traditionist ideas and refuse to change.  Politics isn't that much different than business, the prize goes to the quick and nibble - those who see the future now and act accordingly in the present.  The GOP is becoming more Neanderthal by the moment and I apologize to Neanderthal's for that comparison.  

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5 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

If you care at all about data this is just another drop in the bucket. The stack of special elections so far is very decidedly blue since the Roe decision so that indicates this is a very salient issue on a district level.

 

What we make of that on a national level is up to us. But it is staggeringly different than the top line general election poll numbers.

 

Exactly. This is just another in a long trend, dating back to the 2022 mid-terms that the Republicans were supposed to sweep, that have hinged on women voters protecting their rights.

 

It's a fair point to bring up that only 6,000 people voted in this special election. But it's also fair to point out that the Republican platform is not driving their voters to the polls. This was a solid red county that a Democrat flipped decisively in Alabama, among the reddest of states. 

 

Only 6,000 people showed up. Low turnouts are typical of special and primary elections. But the salient point here is that the Republican platform - which comes from the top down - is not popular among Independents and a lot of Republicans. That's why they've lost since overturning Roe. 

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