Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said: It would take a huge change in the last 20% of the District 2-NE voting for Trump to win that 1 point. Yep, 1 to Trump, 2 to Biden Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Hm ok I looked at Georgia a bit... Biden is down by 118,000 votes. Fulton County is 58% reported and Biden has a 158k vote lead there. If the % of votes holds in that county, Biden could gain 113,000 votes from that county. However... I don't know which votes they count first and there are still red counties that aren't fully reported. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 It's now up to 68% chance for Biden to win Georgia... so I'm not sure about this methodology. They base it off of historical voting I think. Maybe they updated their model based on new % in certain demographics? Or maybe a couple counties came in heavier for Biden than expected? Or maybe the algorithm sucks at using small samples of votes when there is such a predictive variable not accounted for - early voting. Also: "Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count." Link to comment
mrandyk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, mrandyk said: I'm ready to declare tonight's winner will be anyone who goes to bed now because we aren't getting an answer tonight. Also, this country is incromprehensively stupid. 2 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mrandyk said: Also, this country is incromprehensively stupid. The insane thing about it is it is a lot of the same people as... back when we were not bats#!t crazy. Again... before the internet and cable news. That was my thought as I was going to say, if we transplanted all of the voters from the 1984 election to modern times and they voted, this would be like 80% to 20% and they would wonder wtf is wrong with us. Even some of the people whose former selves it would be. 1 Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Georgia and AZ just passing in the night. The fun continues. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, FrantzHardySwag said: Georgia and AZ just passing in the night. The fun continues. I think Arizona may still go for Biden but everyone is saying Fox called it too soon. Although maybe they are seeing something that makes them think it actually will flip to Trump. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Still a possible map. But it's also still possible Trump could win Arizona or Wisconsin or Michigan or NE-2. Or Biden can win Pennsylvania or Georgia. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Moiraine said: I think Arizona may still go for Biden but everyone is saying Fox called it too soon. Although maybe they are seeing something that makes them think it actually will flip to Trump. For some reason AZ has been stuck at 76% reporting for the past 2 hours. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Assuming Arizona and NE-District 2 go to Biden, it will come down to whoever can win 2 of the 3 from WI, MI, and PA. This also assumes that none of the current state leads change overnight. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said: Assuming Arizona and NE-District 2 go to Biden, it will come down to whoever can win 2 of the 3 from WI, MI, and PA. This also assumes that none of the current state leads change overnight. Are you thinking Trump holds on in NC? Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said: Assuming Arizona and NE-District 2 go to Biden, it will come down to whoever can win 2 of the 3 from WI, MI, and PA. This also assumes that none of the current state leads change overnight. Ya, even if Biden wins Arizona and PA and NE-2 and ME-2 he still loses if Trump has Michigan and Wisconsin. *If Georgia goes to Trump Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 I guess it should be noted Biden wasn't expected to win by a lot in Nevada. He could still lose there... then Georgia and Arizona become must wins I believe. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Nate thinks the Minnesota results are a good sign for Biden. It may be good for Biden's chances from a lawsuit standpoint if Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins the election. But obviously winning all 3 would be better. It's just, PA will be more of a s#!tshow I think. If he didn't need it in order to win, that would be preferable. NATE SILVER NOV. 4, 12:45 AM Yeah, that Minnesota projection — which ABC hasn’t made yet! — is bullish for Biden in Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe less so in Pennsylvania, which was polling more tightly and which isn’t as similar demographically to Minnesota. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: I guess it should be noted Biden wasn't expected to win by a lot in Nevada. He could still lose there... then Georgia and Arizona become must wins I believe. Yes, I am assuming that Biden holds onto Nevada, which went to Clinton in 2016. Link to comment
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