What If There Had Been a Four-Team Playoff Since 1988?

[Mavric]

Quote

First, we’ll need a way to determine which teams would have made the playoff each year. Unfortunately, over the first four years of the actual playoff’s existence, neither the AP poll nor our Elo ratings (which are designed, in part, to predict the playoff selection committee’s tendencies) have completely nailed the playoff field with their four highest-ranked teams going into the bowls. But a combination of both1 has been a perfect 16 for 16 in terms of predicting the real-life playoff teams.

 

So we’ll use that Elo/AP combo to pick the four playoff teams in each historical season.2 (Our Elo ratings can be calculated going back to the 1988 season, so that’s when our hypothetical exercise will begin.) I also found that, once the playoff field is set, the pre-bowl AP rankings alone have done the best job of matching the committee’s seeding for the teams, so we’ll set the seeds that way in our mythical playoffs.

 

Next, we’ll need a way to play out the theoretical playoff games themselves. For that, we’ll use Elo, which provides a probabilistic forecast for any given game based on the two teams’ pregame ratings. In most cases, we’ll use each team’s pre-bowl Elo ratings to give us the chances of each team winning both its semifinal game and the championship game (conditional on making it that far). The only exception is when a slated matchup happened in a real-life bowl that season, in which case we’ll use the actual result for that semifinal or final matchup.

 

538

 

[spurs1990]

2008 and on with two SEC teams each time.. No thanks

[Landlord]

'08, '09, and '11 that's probably legitimate - whoever was the best in the SEC those years was pretty undoubtedly the best in the country.

 

 

Nobody else can claim a streak of 5 straight years being in the hypothetical playoff though

[TonyStalloni]

Potentially several more chances for NU to get a Natty.  The 93 game with Fla St would have been on a neutral field and then a matchup with ND or WV.  96 would have been a rematch with Az St but with a more experienced Scott Frost then Fla/Fla St waiting to play in the championship.  99 Nebr would have had a pretty salty Husker team with a 2 year starter Eric Crouch at the helm. Our only loss was to Texas in the 8 fumble game and we beat them in the CCG.  If we walk through Alabama, a game with either Fla St or V Tech would have been fun.  Oddly we don't even make the 2001 playoffs (which we shouldn't have been in anyway.)

[HuskerNBigD]

I wish I would been older, so that I could’ve remembered the 90s better. 

[teachercd]

24 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

I wish I would been older, so that I could’ve remembered the 90s better. 

I am older...and I hardly remember the 90's because it was so much fun.

[HuskerNBigD]

1 hour ago, teachercd said:

I am older...and I hardly remember the 90's because it was so much fun.

 

Haha +1

[funhusker]

I wish Saban was likable.  It would make his amazing run at Alabama a lot more fun to watch.

[spurs1990]

9 hours ago, Landlord said:

'08, '09, and '11 that's probably legitimate - whoever was the best in the SEC those years was pretty undoubtedly the best in the country.

 

 

Nobody else can claim a streak of 5 straight years being in the hypothetical playoff though

Except for Alabama if you continue it on to date.. Which would be up to 7 in a row I think and 9/10

[Comish]

4 hours ago, TonyStalloni said:

Potentially several more chances for NU to get a Natty.  The 93 game with Fla St would have been on a neutral field and then a matchup with ND or WV.  96 would have been a rematch with Az St but with a more experienced Scott Frost then Fla/Fla St waiting to play in the championship.  99 Nebr would have had a pretty salty Husker team with a 2 year starter Eric Crouch at the helm. Our only loss was to Texas in the 8 fumble game and we beat them in the CCG.  If we walk through Alabama, a game with either Fla St or V Tech would have been fun.  Oddly we don't even make the 2001 playoffs (which we shouldn't have been in anyway.)

Another aspect that '99 season that I don’t think has been mentioned.

If I recall correctly, during the ’99 season Nebraska was actually in line to be IN the Natty game.

However, the almighty SEC (via it’s commissioner) lobbied for a in-season change in criteria. It had to do with the down- ballot formula that added or subtracted for records of teams you had played, who THEY had played and involved some above/below .500 records and how that influenced things.  Again, I can’t be certain of exact statistics, but I believe it involved (maybe) Vandy and some of it’s schedule detailed out to the Nth degree.

Because there was this rising tide of national sentiment for Florida State to match up with Mick Vick, subtle adjustment criteria influenced this change which moved the Huskers OUT in midseason formulations and allowed the FSU/Va Tech. matchup.

Since the rest of the nation was interested in this matchup, there was very little press outrage about this manipulation.

This was the season of the notorious “officiating” in Austin where Texas eked out a suspicious victory ( Mike Brown was openly HELD on their winning TD….just a few yards in front of my seats),; and (according to rumor), that set of officials was barred for the remainder of the season. No proof of that, just a lot of rumors following.

In the Big 12 Championship game, the Huskers totally throttled Texas, avenging it’s only loss.

Not saying the Huskers would have necessarily won this Natty matchup.but the opportunity was nefariously snatched away.

[TonyStalloni]

1 hour ago, Comish said:

Another aspect that '99 season that I don’t think has been mentioned.

If I recall correctly, during the ’99 season Nebraska was actually in line to be IN the Natty game.

However, the almighty SEC (via it’s commissioner) lobbied for a in-season change in criteria. It had to do with the down- ballot formula that added or subtracted for records of teams you had played, who THEY had played and involved some above/below .500 records and how that influenced things.  Again, I can’t be certain of exact statistics, but I believe it involved (maybe) Vandy and some of it’s schedule detailed out to the Nth degree.

Because there was this rising tide of national sentiment for Florida State to match up with Mick Vick, subtle adjustment criteria influenced this change which moved the Huskers OUT in midseason formulations and allowed the FSU/Va Tech. matchup.

Since the rest of the nation was interested in this matchup, there was very little press outrage about this manipulation.

This was the season of the notorious “officiating” in Austin where Texas eked out a suspicious victory ( Mike Brown was openly HELD on their winning TD….just a few yards in front of my seats),; and (according to rumor), that set of officials was barred for the remainder of the season. No proof of that, just a lot of rumors following.

In the Big 12 Championship game, the Huskers totally throttled Texas, avenging it’s only loss.

Not saying the Huskers would have necessarily won this Natty matchup.but the opportunity was nefariously snatched away.

I watched that CCG about 3 weeks ago on YouTube and enjoyed it immensely.  I had forgotten some of the background events to that game.  Don't think I remember the info you brought but that sounds like Texas and the SEC both!

[Crazyhole]

6 hours ago, HuskerNBigD said:

I wish I would been older, so that I could’ve remembered the 90s better. 

The mid 90s were awesome.   90-91-92 were pretty forgettable other than Tommie in 1992 and the we-backs.    Pretty comparable to the Pelini years.   

 

The thing about our mid-nineties run is that nobody realized how good the team was until the season was over.   93 had a lot of close games and it didn't look like we stood a chance against FSU.   94 was probably the most fun during the year.  95 was a weird deal, nobody realized how good we were in reality because of the distractions.   96 had some down moments and distractions like 95 did.   97 had moments of greatness and moments of feeling like it was only a matter of time before someone bested us.    I don't want to say any of what we think about that run is revisionist history,  because it's not.   It's just that in each season there was still the feeling that it wasn't going to end in a title.   

[hskrpwr13]

1 hour ago, Crazyhole said:

The mid 90s were awesome.   90-91-92 were pretty forgettable other than Tommie in 1992 and the we-backs.    Pretty comparable to the Pelini years.   

 

The thing about our mid-nineties run is that nobody realized how good the team was until the season was over.   93 had a lot of close games and it didn't look like we stood a chance against FSU.   94 was probably the most fun during the year.  95 was a weird deal, nobody realized how good we were in reality because of the distractions.   96 had some down moments and distractions like 95 did.   97 had moments of greatness and moments of feeling like it was only a matter of time before someone bested us.    I don't want to say any of what we think about that run is revisionist history,  because it's not.   It's just that in each season there was still the feeling that it wasn't going to end in a title.   

 

To bolster your final though about the greatest not being revisionist history, how many times as Bama kind of snuck it at the end when it looked like they'd didn't deserve,, or had to rely on a last game loss by another team. Bama's run looks best as a complete cake, not as much when you separate out the pieces of batter. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by hskrpwr13

[CheeseHusker]

I wish they'd gone back further.... I'd love to see the 1981-84 period especially.

1981: The Nebraska-Clemson Orange Bowl would have been a semi-final; the other game would have been.... wait for it.... Georgia vs Alabama

 

1982: #1 Georgia vs #4 SMU and #2 Penn State vs. #3 Nebraska. Oh baby, if only.

 

1983: #1 Nebraska vs. #4 Georgia, #2 Texas vs #3 Auburn. Miami doesn't even sniff this conversation and history could be a lot different...

 

1984: This is an interesting one, because #3 Florida didn't play in a bowl game, presumably due to some kind of probation. Nebraska's pre-bowl ranking was #5, so I wonder if we somehow get in as the fourth spot. In this case, we would have played BYU, and Oklahoma would have played Washington (which they did in the actual Orange Bowl that year)

 

[krc1995]

7 hours ago, teachercd said:

I am older...and I hardly remember the 90's because it was so much fun.

Ain’t that the truth. Drunken glee for me the 90’s was.