Michigan State is Ours . . .

[VectorVictor]

Have we not learned from the UCLA and Wisky debacles of the past that no team we play is 'ours' until the kids on the field own the game? Nebraska is nowhere close to being able to line up and call out its opponents on or off the field.

 

I swear, 60% of the time, it feels like I'm posting on a board with long term memory loss patients, 100% of the time.

[tschu]

Thanks for explaining the methodology behind your 30% guess tschu. The problem I have with that prediction is my contention that polls are an inaccurate, sometimes biased portrayal of a teams true talent or chance to win.

 

Sure, human polls are open to all kinds of bias. But computer rankings have none. Each team is a data point, nothing more.

 

Generally, the computer models fall into one of 2 categories (or a combination of the two). The first type gives each team a rating (arbitrary at first) and then based on that rating, produces a predicted "spread" for each game. Then the actual results of each game are inputted, and the error (difference between the prediction/actual, probably squared) is calculated. Then, the computer solves for the rating for each team that produces the lowest possible sum of that error for all games. Sagarin's formula is a well-guarded secret, but I think this is roughly what he does. You can add modifiers that weight blowouts differently (the difference in beating a team by 40 or by 50 is usually meaningless, but beating a team by 1 or by 10 is usually more meaningful).

 

The second type is based on offensive and defensive efficiency - usually how many yards per play you gain or give up (ypp) is the backbone, but plenty of adjustments need to be made, like for the speed that you play at and number of plays per game each team runs, as well as adjusting for the strength of the opponent - gaining 7 yards per play against a horrible defense is an average performance, but 7 ypp against a top-5 defense is really good, that sort of thing. I used to follow a separate ranking site that did predicative adjusted YPP stuff but he isn't updating it this year But the Football Outsiders F+ is based on a collection of a bunch of different efficiency ratings.

 

Each has its pros and cons, the first method, being based on scores, has fewer data points per season (just the score of each game) and therefore is inaccurate until several games have passed. But the score is ultimately what the output you're looking for out of a model is, so at least with this you make no assumptions in calculating a score from other data. With the second model, you have to figure out a formula that turns your efficiency data into score data, which introduces another variable. Over time I'm sure these models have looked at more and more historical data and refined how they do that, but it's still another step. The plus side of these models is that they have a ton of data - each play is a data point, rather than each game being a data point.

 

Betting markets, etc - yes, absolutely human bias comes big into play here. I tend to believe in the wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis, but all sorts of things come into play, with sportsbooks playing the edge themselves, with sharps faking one side and then hammering the other when the line moves, with the public favoring established favored teams, etc. But overall it's still a good source to look at because the ultimate source of a collection of opinions is one where each person has put their money behind their belief. Being right or wrong has a reward or punishment.

 

Edit - I need to add that this is purely for predicative power ranking purposes. Some rankings take your accomplishments themselves into account. For example, you could play every team in the top 10, lose to each by a single point, and be 0-10. An accomplishment-based ranking would not rank this team very high at all, but a predicative model would probably have them in the top 15.

[tschu]

Have we not learned from the UCLA and Wisky debacles of the past that no team we play is 'ours' until the kids on the field own the game? Nebraska is nowhere close to being able to line up and call out its opponents on or off the field.

 

I swear, 60% of the time, it feels like I'm posting on a board with long term memory loss patients, 100% of the time.

 

People got those 5-0 stars in their eyes

[HuskerJax]

Going to be at the game, getting excited. I could see them squeaking by us in this game, but then us blowing them out in the championship rematch. Hope I'm wrong and we win both, but if we lose I hope we get a second shot at them.

[Bigred_inSD]

My one hope for this game is the refs let the players decide it.

[WhatDoIKnow]

I don't know what to think about this game. I know it's going to be tough and pretty much no one outside of Nebraska gives us a chance. I hope the team embraces that and comes out on a mission to prove everyone wrong and let the nation know that we're truly back. This very well may be a preview of the B1G championship game in Indy in December. If it is, it'll be hard to beat a team twice in a season, but we'll just have to see how things pan out. I had us losing to MSU and Wisconsin for sure before the season began. Now, I'm getting wrapped up in the moment and think we've got a chance to run the table. Trouble is the injury bug seems to have different plans for us once again!

 

This is where I'm at. I honestly don't think I would feel as good about the team if we would have blown Miami out. That was a battle and we did not back down. MSU is going to jaw and push and cut as much as Miami. I know it can change in a hurry, but this team seems to have a mental toughness.

[manitobahusker]

with every big game in the last 5 years it seems the question is always will our Defense show up? I have my doubts

[WhatDoIKnow]

My one hope for this game is the refs let the players decide it.

 

Gregory is going to need to keep his head. MSU is going to chop and cut him like crazy.

 

We are undefeated when I watch a game at my sister's newish house. I will be there Saturday. What more of a sign do you need?

[irafreak]

 

 

 

Call me an optimist, Sun, but I go into every game thinking we are going to win. Some guys I feel a lot better about that then others, but I think we will win at MSU next week. And I actually expect that we will. That is a difference from years past... I actually feel confident that we can do it. From what we've seen from Ameer, from Tommy, from the rest of the offense... from Randy, the rest of the DL, the improvement of the secondary and Zaire.... I think we've got a very good shot next weekend. I, for one, have not given up on having high goals. Call me crazy, but I could legitimately see us running the table this year.

 

We're going to need some luck, and some games will be tighter than others, but it can definitely be done, with the landscape of the Big 10 the way it is right now.

 

But I've learned to take every game as they come. Week by week. Perhaps I'm cherry picking points to make me feel better about our chances next week, but I feel really good as of right now.

100% agree with your thinking. I think we can run the table, too. However, I'm amazed at the vast number of people who think it's impossible.

Where are you seeing all these posts declaring Nebraska having no chance to win? The exaggeration in these threads...

Did you miss pretty much every post here after the McNeese State game?

 

And I'm sure everyone still feels that way after having played 3 good games since then...

[Branno]

 

 

 

 

 

See, a poster brought up TM...I have coached for awhile (I suck at it) but playing a team with a guy that can flat out take it to the house at anytime (As we know TM could) is soooooo freaking hard to prepare for, it is maddening when a kid takes a wrong step, when a kid doesn't keep shoulders square and so on and so on, then BAM, you let up a TD...

 

There is not really that worry with TA. It makes a HUGE difference.

Oh dear Lord.

 

Is this what hell is like?

I'd much rather have TA than TM going into this game. Fo sho.

 

I'll take the kid that makes you miss and kills you for 12 all night than the guy that breaks a huge one for 60 and a TD but puts us on the edge of sharting every time he bread-loaves his carries or lets it rip downfield.

I'd love to have TM back for a game like this. He did go 2-0 against the Spartans afterall and we know how last year went with TA at the helm.

Youre not serious are you?

Yes I'm being serious that I would love to see our record-setting quarterback who has beaten Michigan State twice still playing. I really don't understand the Martinez hate around here.

 

But honestly I think Tommy is going to be fine this gameas long as he doesn't turn the ball over like last year

[irafreak]

 

Thanks for explaining the methodology behind your 30% guess tschu. The problem I have with that prediction is my contention that polls are an inaccurate, sometimes biased portrayal of a teams true talent or chance to win.

 

Sure, human polls are open to all kinds of bias. But computer rankings have none. Each team is a data point, nothing more.

 

Generally, the computer models fall into one of 2 categories (or a combination of the two). The first type gives each team a rating (arbitrary at first) and then based on that rating, produces a predicted "spread" for each game. Then the actual results of each game are inputted, and the error (difference between the prediction/actual, probably squared) is calculated. Then, the computer solves for the rating for each team that produces the lowest possible sum of that error for all games. Sagarin's formula is a well-guarded secret, but I think this is roughly what he does. You can add modifiers that weight blowouts differently (the difference in beating a team by 40 or by 50 is usually meaningless, but beating a team by 1 or by 10 is usually more meaningful).

 

The second type is based on offensive and defensive efficiency - usually how many yards per play you gain or give up (ypp) is the backbone, but plenty of adjustments need to be made, like for the speed that you play at and number of plays per game each team runs, as well as adjusting for the strength of the opponent - gaining 7 yards per play against a horrible defense is an average performance, but 7 ypp against a top-5 defense is really good, that sort of thing. I used to follow a separate ranking site that did predicative adjusted YPP stuff but he isn't updating it this year But the Football Outsiders F+ is based on a collection of a bunch of different efficiency ratings.

 

Each has its pros and cons, the first method, being based on scores, has fewer data points per season (just the score of each game) and therefore is inaccurate until several games have passed. But the score is ultimately what the output you're looking for out of a model is, so at least with this you make no assumptions in calculating a score from other data. With the second model, you have to figure out a formula that turns your efficiency data into score data, which introduces another variable. Over time I'm sure these models have looked at more and more historical data and refined how they do that, but it's still another step. The plus side of these models is that they have a ton of data - each play is a data point, rather than each game being a data point.

 

Betting markets, etc - yes, absolutely human bias comes big into play here. I tend to believe in the wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis, but all sorts of things come into play, with sportsbooks playing the edge themselves, with sharps faking one side and then hammering the other when the line moves, with the public favoring established favored teams, etc. But overall it's still a good source to look at because the ultimate source of a collection of opinions is one where each person has put their money behind their belief. Being right or wrong has a reward or punishment.

 

Edit - I need to add that this is purely for predicative power ranking purposes. Some rankings take your accomplishments themselves into account. For example, you could play every team in the top 10, lose to each by a single point, and be 0-10. An accomplishment-based ranking would not rank this team very high at all, but a predicative model would probably have them in the top 15.

 

I think you could argue that computer rankings may be biased since they are designed by people. I mean why should strength of schedule be factored in but they pull out the margin of victory? Is it absolute fact that margin of victory means nothing? To the guy/group that wrote the program it is...

[NUinID]

 

 

 

 

 

 

No hate from me, TM played well and won NU a lot of games. I like the way TA is running the offense and the way the offense has evolved without TM at the helm.

 

It is going to be a good game. Frankly I think MSU will be a little over confident. They have been putting up great numbers against pretty bad teams.

 

One think I think we will see more of to loosen up MSU's D and to get TA into a rhythm is the WR screens. I have never been a big fan of them the way NU did them in the past, but they have gotten a lot better at them this year. I expect to see 4-5 of them in the first half if the game. If they can pick up 6-7 yards a pop on those that will help widen out the running lanes.

[tschu]

I think you could argue that computer rankings may be biased since they are designed by people. I mean why should strength of schedule be factored in but they pull out the margin of victory? Is it absolute fact that margin of victory means nothing? To the guy/group that wrote the program it is...

 

 

What? Are you referring to the BCS computers? Because those are obviously horrible. Any decent model whose goal is to predict results should include margin of victory. The fact that the BCS took margin of victory out of the equation was embarrassing.

 

I don't look at sh**ty models like that. Sagarin was a BCS computer, but he had to modify his formula and make an entirely new ranking, separate from the ones he posts each week on USA today, to give to the BCS. His normal rankings include margin of victory, and actually the majority of it is determined by margin of victory. But he had to take it out of the equation to appease the BCS. And it was hilarious how bad and how different that ranking was from his "real" ones.

 

But yeah I'm not sure what you're referring to, if not to that.

[JJ Husker]

As a fan, I am not the least concerned about our ability on paper (or on film) to beat Michigan State. They are a very solid football team, but so are we. If you're not afraid of Ameer Abdullah, you're not paying attention. If you're not afraid of Randy Gregory (and hell, the rest of that line), you're not paying attention. One of Bill Callhan's famous proverbs is relevant here: the football is a funny-shaped ball. A lot can happen in a game. You can beat yourself. You can have a few game-changing calls go against you. Little mistakes turn into big disasters. It's football.

 

Which means for a player, you don't need to read anything. You don't need to watch TV. You don't need to consider the national ramifications or the image of the program. Don't give it a thought. You need to spend every moment this week practicing at maximum effort (including and especially the film room, DBs), and preparing to play a full four quarters with total attention and discipline.

 

If we do that and lose by three, I'll tip my hat. This is a good team we're about to play. They deserve our complete respect. In this age of college football going undefeated is increasingly a luxury; let's just try to not self-harm out there and give away a signature win.

[shyndy]

Everything that is a predicative number is just an educated guess. It is never truly possible to know what the exact win probability of a matchup is - the only way to truly know would be to have the two teams play an infinite number of times and record the percentage that each one wins. I think that should go without saying.

 

So now that the disclaimer is out of the way

 

Based on the spread, which is 9.5 right now, that spread historically means a 71% chance of the favorite winning. Sagarin's model puts the spread at 10.1 which historically is 75% win prob.

This model http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/ puts us at 30% chance of winning

The F+ models that SBNation puts out are more complex in that one of the creators actually spits out the win probabilities based on their ratings. I don't have the capability to turn their rating into a probability exactly, because I don't have their formula, but an eyeball based on the rating is ~65% MSU. We'll find out on Thursday when it's posted.

We can also figure what the betting market puts the win probability at based on the moneyline which doesn't necessarily exactly mirror spread distributions based on what the point total of the game is (7 points obviously is more significant in a low-scoring game than it does in a high-scoring one) so when the first ML odds are out, possibly tomorrow, we can look at what Vegas and the sharps think.

 

So again. 30% is an aggreggate of the best guesses of the most historically reliable stuff I could find, as well as betting markets which are inherently an aggregate of all information and analysis of every kind available to every bettor. I'd put even more stock in the F+ prediction when that is released, since it has been historically as good as the betting market.

 

I am not a statistician - I leave that up to the pros. I merely know how to find and evaluate information.

 

What do you think our chance of winning is? I'm pretty glad to take a 1 of 3 chance going into a road game at a frightening top-10 team

Actually I'd say both teams have a 100% CHANCE to win since the game is going to be played, I'm very confident there won't be a weather postpone or forfeit.