#16 in Both Polls

[It'sNotAFakeID]

If you're undefeated, you deserve to be at the top. End of story. So for the time being, Mississippi State, Florida State, and Ole Miss are the 3 best teams in college football; if the playoffs started today, they'd be in. Fortunately for all the 1 loss teams, Miss St and Ole Miss still have to play each other and both have a couple of tough contests still to come. Unfortunately, it appears Florida State has sealed a playoff spot as they won't face a tough test the rest of the way.

 

There are 14 Power 5 teams with 1 loss: Auburn, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, Arizona, Arizona State, Nebraska, and Utah.

 

 

Auburn currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They're remaining games are:

 

vs South Carolina--W

@ Ole Miss--W

vs Texas A&M--W

@ Georgia--L

vs Samford--W

@ Alabama--L

 

Final record: 9-3 (5-3)

 

It's going to take quite an effort for Auburn to win 2 of those road contests. And I think the committee will be hard pressed to place a 3 loss team in the playoffs.

 

 

Alabama currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Tennessee--W

@ LSU--W

vs Mississippi State--W

vs Western Carolina--W

vs Auburn--W

 

Final record: 11-1 (7-1)

 

LSU and Mississippi State are toss-up games, but I think 'Bama will win out. A slip-up against LSU will make things very interesting. In this scenario, 'Bama has a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

Oregon currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They have to play:

 

@ California--W

vs Stanford--W

@ Utah--L

vs Colorado--W

vs Oregon State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A loss for Oregon would be a death-knell for their playoff chances. I don't see them winning all 3 out of Cal, Stanford, and Utah.

 

 

Notre Dame currently sits at 6-1. They still have to face:

 

@ Navy--W

@ Arizona State--W

vs Northwestern--W

vs Louisville--W

@ USC--L

 

Final Record: 10-2. Much like Oregon, another loss sends them out of the playoffs. Traveling to Arizona State and USC will be tough, and I don't see them winning both of those games.

 

 

Michigan State currently sits at 6-1 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

vs Michigan--W

vs Ohio State--W

@ Maryland--W

vs Rutgers--W

@ Penn State--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (8-0). I think MSU gets up for the big game, and will shut down Ohio State. 11-1 would be enough to place them in the playoffs.

 

 

Georgia currently sits at 6-1 (4-1): They have to play:

 

Florida--W

@ Kentucky--W

vs Auburn--W

vs Charleston Southern--W

vs. Georgia Tech--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Aside from Auburn, Georgia's remaining schedule is a joke. 11-1 gives them a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

TCU currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Texas Tech--W

@ West Virginia--L

vs Kansas State--W

@ Kansas--W

@ Texas--W

vs Iowa State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). Unfortunately 2 losses would mean TCU is out. They'll drop one against WVU or KSU.

 

 

Kansas State currently sits at 5-1 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

vs Texas--W

vs Oklahoma State--W

@ TCU--L

@ West Virginia--W

vs Kansas--W

@ Baylor--L

 

Final Record: 9-3 (7-2) Those road games at TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor are going to be incredibly tough for KSU. 3 losses is a no go for the playoffs.

 

 

Baylor currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Kansas--W

@ Oklahoma--L

vs Oklahoma State--W

vs Texas Tech--W

vs Kansas State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). If Baylor can get past a motivated OU, they'll be the outright Big XII champs and have a shot at the playoffs.

 

Ohio State currently sits at 5-1 (2-0). They still have to play:

 

@ Penn State--W

vs Illinois--W

@ Michigan State--L

@ Minnesota--W

vs Indiana--W

vs Michigan--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-1). A loss to Michigan State ends their shot at the playoffs. That game 3 weeks from now is going to be huge for both sides.

 

 

Arizona currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Washington State--W

@ UCLA--L

vs Colorado--W

vs Washington--W

@ Utah--L

vs Arizona State--W

 

Final Record: 9-3 (6-3). 3 losses won't put Arizona into the playoffs.

 

Arizona State currently sits at 5-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Washington--W

vs Utah--W

vs Notre Dame--L

@ Oregon State--W

vs Washington State--W

@ Arizona--L

 

Final Record: 9-3 (7-2). Much like Arizona, 3 losses throws Arizona out of the playoffs.

 

Nebraska currently sits at 6-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Rutgers--W

vs Purdue--W

@ Wisconsin--W

vs Minnesota--W

@ Iowa--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Trips to Madison and Iowa City will be difficult, and we never know what we will see from Nebraska, but this offense looks capable of putting up points (I mean we put up 19 in the 4th quarter against MSU), and neither Wisconsin nor Iowa have figured themselves out to date. It's definitely possible for Nebraska to win out. 1 loss keeps us in the hunt for a playoff spot.

 

Utah currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs USC--W

@ Arizona State--L

vs Oregon--W

@ Stanford--W

vs Arizona--W

@ Colorado--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A 5 week stretch of USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona is absolutely brutal, and it's an optimistic outlook to predict Utah will win 4 of those 5 games. I don't see Utah being a threat to the playoffs.

 

 

 

Here are the schedules of the remaining unbeatens:

 

Mississippi State is currently 6-0 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

@ Kentucky--W

vs Arkansas--W

vs UT-Martin--W

@ Alabama--L

vs Vanderbilt--W

@ Ole Miss--L

 

Final Record: 10-2 (6-2). Mississippi State is a vastly improved team from years past, but trips to Ole Miss and Alabama are going to be difficult. 1 win is possible, 2 seems farfetched at this point. Unfortunately, this will keep Miss St out of the conference title and more than likely out of the playoffs.

 

 

Ole Miss currently sits at 7-0 (4-0). They still have to play:

 

@ LSU--W

vs Auburn--L

vs Presbyterian--W

@ Arkansas--W

vs Mississippi State--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Ole Miss would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama and would go to Atlanta to take on Georgia for the SEC title.

 

Florida State is going to go undefeated. I'm not going to bother with them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This leaves us with conference championship games looking like:

 

B1G: Nebraska 11-1 (7-1) vs Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)--I'm going with Nebraska in the rematch

 

Big XII: I believe 10-2 Baylor would win the tiebreaker between Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor.

 

Pac-12: Oregon 10-2 (7-2) vs Arizona State/UCLA/USC (??) Deciding who wins the South division gives me a headache--Oregon wins the conference.

 

SEC: Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1) vs Georgia 11-1 (7-1)--I think Ole Miss wins this game.

 

 

 

Which leaves us with these teams from which the playoff committee must select 4.

 

13-0 Florida State--ACC Champion

12-1 Nebraska--Big Ten Champion

10-2 Baylor--Big XII Champion

11-2 Oregon--Pac 12 Champion

12-1 Ole Miss--SEC Champion

11-1 Alabama--only loss to SEC Champion Ole Miss

 

 

Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.

 

 

Your inaugural playoffs would be:

 

#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon

#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska

[SouthLincoln Husker]

There will not be 3 teams from the SEC in the tournament as they have to play each other and someone has to lose. Florida St will remain unbeaten until the first round of the tournament. Oregon has a weak schedule and will be a 1 loss team. Now throw in about 10 other teams that have a chance to be a 1 loss team. Also remember that the individuals who pick these teams have no criteria to use, except their opinion of who should be there.

[kchusker_chris]

 

Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.

 

 

Your inaugural playoffs would be:

 

#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon

#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska

 

You'd pick a 2 loss Oregon, with losses to Arizona (home) and Utah (away) over Alabama whose only loss came to the #2 team in the country? I think you'll be the only one....

[Moiraine]

 

 

Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.

 

 

Your inaugural playoffs would be:

 

#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon

#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska

 

You'd pick a 2 loss Oregon, with losses to Arizona (home) and Utah (away) over Alabama whose only loss came to the #2 team in the country? I think you'll be the only one....

 

 

He said another loss takes Oregon out of the playoff. I think he just forgot that he thinks they'll lose another game.

[Guy Chamberlin]

Maybe the SEC is overrated, but their recent dominance isn't artificial. Other conferences have their highs and lows. The Big 10 is currently in a low. It happens.

 

It not a matter of the SEC's best teams being better than the best teams in other conferences. But I do think they are more talented top to bottom than most, so yeah, it's gonna be hard to come out of there with less than two losses. Does anyone think Nebraska would have a better chance playing in the SEC than the Big 10?

 

I realize ESPN pays the SEC, but that's the deal with every network. If an SEC-heavy playoff is bad for ratings, they won't like it. That's actually what they do for a living. They want the best story. And they actually have no choice in the matter.

 

I don't see any point in Husker fans wringing our hands or trotting out the SEC bias. Nebraska just has to win. #16 is a pretty good place to be. If anything, a little pro-Husker bias has forgiven McNeese State and the first three quarters of MSU.

 

Time for us to earn that higher rating.

[JTrain]

If you're undefeated, you deserve to be at the top.

 

Marshall says hi.

 

Oh, what's that? They shouldn't get in because SOS has to be factored into the equation? I see.

 

If Alabama or Ole Miss finish 11-1 with top five SOS rankings, they will and should be included over a 12-1 FSU or a 12-1 Michigan State with an SOS in the 30-50 range. The fact that the latter teams happened to be in mediocre conferences while the former are in a very good conference is not up to them. The "conference champion" tag does not arbitrarily give you a whatever-it-is-you-need-to-pass-the-better-teams-in-front-of-you boost.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Woops...then go with Bama.

[ScottyIce]

Does anyone believe that if Michigan State beats Ohio State and we win out, including winning the Big 10 Championship, we have an outside chance at being the #4?

 

Looking at the SEC schedule the rest of the way, most of those teams are going to end with 1+ losses.

 

FSU is in for sure as long as they win out

Notre Dame is in if they win out.

Miss State still plays Ole Miss, Bama, Arkansas (If they win 2 they will be in)

Ole Miss still plays LSU, Miss State, Auburn, Arkansas

Auburn still plays Ole Miss, Georgia, Bama, A&M

Oregon still plays Stanford, Utah

 

If we take care of business, here is my crazy prediction for a final 4.(and biased/dreaming)

1. Florida State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Nebraska

 

Okay, I'm probably dreaming, but don't care. Just want it to get interesting, we have to play really well for that to even happen.

[ScottyIce]

If you're undefeated, you deserve to be at the top. End of story. So for the time being, Mississippi State, Florida State, and Ole Miss are the 3 best teams in college football; if the playoffs started today, they'd be in. Fortunately for all the 1 loss teams, Miss St and Ole Miss still have to play each other and both have a couple of tough contests still to come. Unfortunately, it appears Florida State has sealed a playoff spot as they won't face a tough test the rest of the way.

 

There are 14 Power 5 teams with 1 loss: Auburn, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, Arizona, Arizona State, Nebraska, and Utah.

 

 

Auburn currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They're remaining games are:

 

vs South Carolina--W

@ Ole Miss--W

vs Texas A&M--W

@ Georgia--L

vs Samford--W

@ Alabama--L

 

Final record: 9-3 (5-3)

 

It's going to take quite an effort for Auburn to win 2 of those road contests. And I think the committee will be hard pressed to place a 3 loss team in the playoffs.

 

 

Alabama currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Tennessee--W

@ LSU--W

vs Mississippi State--W

vs Western Carolina--W

vs Auburn--W

 

Final record: 11-1 (7-1)

 

LSU and Mississippi State are toss-up games, but I think 'Bama will win out. A slip-up against LSU will make things very interesting. In this scenario, 'Bama has a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

Oregon currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They have to play:

 

@ California--W

vs Stanford--W

@ Utah--L

vs Colorado--W

vs Oregon State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A loss for Oregon would be a death-knell for their playoff chances. I don't see them winning all 3 out of Cal, Stanford, and Utah.

 

 

Notre Dame currently sits at 6-1. They still have to face:

 

@ Navy--W

@ Arizona State--W

vs Northwestern--W

vs Louisville--W

@ USC--L

 

Final Record: 10-2. Much like Oregon, another loss sends them out of the playoffs. Traveling to Arizona State and USC will be tough, and I don't see them winning both of those games.

 

 

Michigan State currently sits at 6-1 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

vs Michigan--W

vs Ohio State--W

@ Maryland--W

vs Rutgers--W

@ Penn State--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (8-0). I think MSU gets up for the big game, and will shut down Ohio State. 11-1 would be enough to place them in the playoffs.

 

 

Georgia currently sits at 6-1 (4-1): They have to play:

 

Florida--W

@ Kentucky--W

vs Auburn--W

vs Charleston Southern--W

vs. Georgia Tech--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Aside from Auburn, Georgia's remaining schedule is a joke. 11-1 gives them a shot at the playoffs.

 

 

TCU currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Texas Tech--W

@ West Virginia--L

vs Kansas State--W

@ Kansas--W

@ Texas--W

vs Iowa State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). Unfortunately 2 losses would mean TCU is out. They'll drop one against WVU or KSU.

 

 

Kansas State currently sits at 5-1 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

vs Texas--W

vs Oklahoma State--W

@ TCU--L

@ West Virginia--W

vs Kansas--W

@ Baylor--L

 

Final Record: 9-3 (7-2) Those road games at TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor are going to be incredibly tough for KSU. 3 losses is a no go for the playoffs.

 

 

Baylor currently sits at 6-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Kansas--W

@ Oklahoma--L

vs Oklahoma State--W

vs Texas Tech--W

vs Kansas State--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). If Baylor can get past a motivated OU, they'll be the outright Big XII champs and have a shot at the playoffs.

 

Ohio State currently sits at 5-1 (2-0). They still have to play:

 

@ Penn State--W

vs Illinois--W

@ Michigan State--L

@ Minnesota--W

vs Indiana--W

vs Michigan--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-1). A loss to Michigan State ends their shot at the playoffs. That game 3 weeks from now is going to be huge for both sides.

 

 

Arizona currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Washington State--W

@ UCLA--L

vs Colorado--W

vs Washington--W

@ Utah--L

vs Arizona State--W

 

Final Record: 9-3 (6-3). 3 losses won't put Arizona into the playoffs.

 

Arizona State currently sits at 5-1 (3-1). They still have to play:

 

@ Washington--W

vs Utah--W

vs Notre Dame--L

@ Oregon State--W

vs Washington State--W

@ Arizona--L

 

Final Record: 9-3 (7-2). Much like Arizona, 3 losses throws Arizona out of the playoffs.

 

Nebraska currently sits at 6-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs Rutgers--W

vs Purdue--W

@ Wisconsin--W

vs Minnesota--W

@ Iowa--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Trips to Madison and Iowa City will be difficult, and we never know what we will see from Nebraska, but this offense looks capable of putting up points (I mean we put up 19 in the 4th quarter against MSU), and neither Wisconsin nor Iowa have figured themselves out to date. It's definitely possible for Nebraska to win out. 1 loss keeps us in the hunt for a playoff spot.

 

Utah currently sits at 5-1 (2-1). They still have to play:

 

vs USC--W

@ Arizona State--L

vs Oregon--W

@ Stanford--W

vs Arizona--W

@ Colorado--W

 

Final Record: 10-2 (7-2). A 5 week stretch of USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona is absolutely brutal, and it's an optimistic outlook to predict Utah will win 4 of those 5 games. I don't see Utah being a threat to the playoffs.

 

 

 

Here are the schedules of the remaining unbeatens:

 

Mississippi State is currently 6-0 (3-0). They still have to play:

 

@ Kentucky--W

vs Arkansas--W

vs UT-Martin--W

@ Alabama--L

vs Vanderbilt--W

@ Ole Miss--L

 

Final Record: 10-2 (6-2). Mississippi State is a vastly improved team from years past, but trips to Ole Miss and Alabama are going to be difficult. 1 win is possible, 2 seems farfetched at this point. Unfortunately, this will keep Miss St out of the conference title and more than likely out of the playoffs.

 

 

Ole Miss currently sits at 7-0 (4-0). They still have to play:

 

@ LSU--W

vs Auburn--L

vs Presbyterian--W

@ Arkansas--W

vs Mississippi State--W

 

Final Record: 11-1 (7-1). Ole Miss would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama and would go to Atlanta to take on Georgia for the SEC title.

 

Florida State is going to go undefeated. I'm not going to bother with them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This leaves us with conference championship games looking like:

 

B1G: Nebraska 11-1 (7-1) vs Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)--I'm going with Nebraska in the rematch

 

Big XII: I believe 10-2 Baylor would win the tiebreaker between Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor.

 

Pac-12: Oregon 10-2 (7-2) vs Arizona State/UCLA/USC (??) Deciding who wins the South division gives me a headache--Oregon wins the conference.

 

SEC: Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1) vs Georgia 11-1 (7-1)--I think Ole Miss wins this game.

 

 

 

Which leaves us with these teams from which the playoff committee must select 4.

 

13-0 Florida State--ACC Champion

12-1 Nebraska--Big Ten Champion

10-2 Baylor--Big XII Champion

11-2 Oregon--Pac 12 Champion

12-1 Ole Miss--SEC Champion

11-1 Alabama--only loss to SEC Champion Ole Miss

 

 

Both Florida State and Ole Miss are in as #1 and #2. Nebraska should get the nod as #3. Which leaves the decision for #4 between Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Tough decision, but I'd pick Oregon.

 

 

Your inaugural playoffs would be:

 

#1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon

#2 Ole Miss vs #3 Nebraska

DID WE JUST BECOME BEST FRIENDS!?!?

[ScottyIce]

The real question is this, if we went to a playoff system, why a 4 team playoff system? Why not 8?

 

SEC Champ

B10 Champ

B12 Champ

PAC Champ

ACC Champ

3 Wild Cards

[Moiraine]

Does anyone believe that if Michigan State beats Ohio State and we win out, including winning the Big 10 Championship, we have an outside chance at being the #4?

 

Of course we do.

 

When Nebraska lost to Colorado in 2001 I fully believed we could still make it to the national championship game and I watched every single game that might have an effect on it. We still have a lot of season left. (I'm not sure I believe we'll win out but IF we do there is definitely a chance and not a bad one).

 

Someone in an above post said FSU is in because the rest of their schedule is crap. The reason I like college football is because you can't have much surety with that. There are upsets all the time.

[Landlord]

The real question is this, if we went to a playoff system, why a 4 team playoff system? Why not 8?

 

SEC Champ

B10 Champ

B12 Champ

PAC Champ

ACC Champ

3 Wild Cards

 

 

Because one of the things that makes college football so great is that every week is life or death - you feel like you can't ever screw up and drop a game or you're screwed.

 

If it expands to 8 then when Bama or Oregon or whoever drop a game early, the opinion will be "eh. not a big deal. they'll rebound and still make it."

 

I think 6 teams with 1 and 2 getting byes is the sweet spot.

[NUinID]

I guess I am still not ready to say FSU wins out.

 

They still have to play

 

@ Louisville

@ Miami

Virginia

BC

 

On paper non of those teams should be too much problem, but they are all ok teams that if FSU plays bad they could lose to. FSU got lucky against NCState and they aren't very good. I particularly like the @ Louisville it is a Thursday night game.

[VectorVictor]

 

If we take care of business, here is my crazy prediction for a final 4.(and biased/dreaming)

1. Florida State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Nebraska

 

Okay, I'm probably dreaming, but don't care. Just want it to get interesting, we have to play really well for that to even happen.

 

So we're looking at a 1993 NC rematch, then followed by a 1971 NC rematch?

 

I'll take it...especially considering if we get to the point where we play 'Bama, we've won four of our five NCs against SEC teams.

[kchusker_chris]

 

If Alabama or Ole Miss finish 11-1 with top five SOS rankings, they will and should be included over a 12-1 FSU or a 12-1 Michigan State with an SOS in the 30-50 range. The fact that the latter teams happened to be in mediocre conferences while the former are in a very good conference is not up to them. The "conference champion" tag does not arbitrarily give you a whatever-it-is-you-need-to-pass-the-better-teams-in-front-of-you boost.

 

 

I actually think it will give you exactly that for a while...because it's not FSU or MSU's fault that they haven't had a chance to face Ole Miss, or Alabama. They can't jump conferences to suit their situations. They play the schedule they are dealt and work within the outcomes. If they have a single loss and are conference champions, I think the committee will put them in over the top of a non-conference champion with the same record so they can go up against another conference and prove they belong. Even if it's an SEC team. Now - in a few years when (if) the SEC teams have completely dominated some of these other conferences....you're going to start seeing the bias we had in the BCS - and rightfully so. End of the day, your conference will influence these rankings heavily...and unfortunately for us we aren't sitting very good in regards to conference strength.