Trump's America

[Moiraine]

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

[Nebfanatic]

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

[ZRod]

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

^This

 

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

I'm sure you think you do. But as someone who goes to a car assembly plant almost weekly, you have no idea how many people are still involved in making a car model. It's not just OEMs, but there are still hundreds of suppliers that suspport that production. There are plenty of jobs left for people, and there will be for quite sometime. We have time to educate our citizens and be proactive.

 

Industry shifts all the time. That's why I brought up Pttsburg. Steele jobs went away, there was a downturn, but the city imbraced a new industry and bounced back. These new jobs required a different skill set and education though, something we are not too found of promoting within the government today. So it doesn't need to be this doom and gloom thing, unless that's what we want to make it.

[Nebfanatic]

These business owners we speak of wanting to save money by automating must still make money remember. If we cut out 80% of the work force that would decimate the consumer base, something much more threatening to business owners than labor cost.

 

America's elite need the work force to continue making money so they continue spending it. The economy would die if you stopped the consumers cash flow. So basically what I'm saying is I'm sure this is something business owners have thought about and planned for via upcoming new industries and avenues to make money as a consumer level citizen. Also my belief jobs won't run out is based in faith of the idea there is always more and an abundance of enough if sought.

[RedDenver]

 

 

That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You're missing two major points here:

1) How many workers can be displaced before the economy collapses?

Even if automation only cuts 30% of jobs that would leave us with Great Depression era levels of unemployment.

 

2) What happens when AI can do the reprogramming and another robot does the maintenance?

This might seem sci-fi and off in the distant future, but tech companies are already working on AI using machine learning to do programming.

1) that's why I'm arguing for a highly educated working class. From blue collar to white collar and everywhere in between. I'm a firm believea that an educated country is the solution to our future problems.

 

2) Thats amazing and will be an awesome achievement, but all this still has to scale. Material isn't free or even cheap.

 

We pretty much agree. Although I'll point out that material costs are separate from the manufacturing process (i.e. you need the material either way), and many industries (like services or software) have little to no material needs.

 

 

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

^This

 

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

I'm sure you think you do. But as someone who goes to a car assembly plant almost weekly, you have no idea how many people are still involved in making a car model. It's not just OEMs, but there are still hundreds of suppliers that suspport that production. There are plenty of jobs left for people, and there will be for quite sometime. We have time to educate our citizens and be proactive.

 

Industry shifts all the time. That's why I brought up Pttsburg. Steele jobs went away, there was a downturn, but the city imbraced a new industry and bounced back. These new jobs required a different skill set and education though, something we are not too found of promoting within the government today. So it doesn't need to be this doom and gloom thing, unless that's what we want to make it.

 

Have you considered that the car assembly plant you go to does not represent the future of automation? Technologies like 3D printing and customizable electronics can eliminate a lot of the OEM and supply chain.

 

I certainly hope we have time for people to adjust and adapt to a new economy and new jobs, but that's not guaranteed. My concern is what do we do if the new jobs aren't being created as fast as automation is removing the old jobs?

 

These business owners we speak of wanting to save money by automating must still make money remember. If we cut out 80% of the work force that would decimate the consumer base, something much more threatening to business owners than labor cost.

 

America's elite need the work force to continue making money so they continue spending it. The economy would die if you stopped the consumers cash flow. So basically what I'm saying is I'm sure this is something business owners have thought about and planned for via upcoming new industries and avenues to make money as a consumer level citizen. Also my belief jobs won't run out is based in faith of the idea there is always more and an abundance of enough if sought.

That's exactly right. The problem is that it's in each company's best interest to use automation to save costs and therefore drive up profits, but if they all do it then it will actually drive down profits (or crash the economy) as you've said. How do you convince companies to do something that is not in their own best interest but instead is in the interests of the group as a whole? You're basically asking them to not maximize their own profits.

[Moiraine]

 

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

^This

 

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

I'm sure you think you do. But as someone who goes to a car assembly plant almost weekly, you have no idea how many people are still involved in making a car model. It's not just OEMs, but there are still hundreds of suppliers that suspport that production. There are plenty of jobs left for people, and there will be for quite sometime. We have time to educate our citizens and be proactive.

 

Industry shifts all the time. That's why I brought up Pttsburg. Steele jobs went away, there was a downturn, but the city imbraced a new industry and bounced back. These new jobs required a different skill set and education though, something we are not too found of promoting within the government today. So it doesn't need to be this doom and gloom thing, unless that's what we want to make it.

The whole point of the discussion comes down to the fact that automation reduces man hours. It doesn't matter how many people are involved in making a car now. I don't need a detailed understanding of that to know that the goal is to decrease the number of man hours, and it has and will continue to decrease. I'm also not talking about now. In my first post on the subject I was talking 50 years from now.

 

That said, Nebfanatic made some really good points that are good answers to what myself and others are saying.

[Landlord]

 

The point is also not specifically white republican christian homophobic business owners

 

That particular demographic does control 90% of America and American industry.

 

 

No, they don't.

 

If you want to talk about business owners, white people make up about 85% of business owners. But men only make up 64%. Christian men even less than that. Republican Christian men even less still. Once again you force people not to take what you say seriously. You are remarkably good at that.

[knapplc]

Some day we'll all have our own AI apps that can argue about minutiae on message boards for us so we are all free to screw around on musical.ly all day.

[Moiraine]

The White House wants your input on how to reorganize the executive branch.

 

Which agencies would you like to eliminate?

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/reorganizing-the-executive-branch

 

 

Can we start by temporarily eliminating the position of President until someone who's not an asshat can replace him?

[ZRod]

 

 

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

^This

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

I'm sure you think you do. But as someone who goes to a car assembly plant almost weekly, you have no idea how many people are still involved in making a car model. It's not just OEMs, but there are still hundreds of suppliers that suspport that production. There are plenty of jobs left for people, and there will be for quite sometime. We have time to educate our citizens and be proactive.

Industry shifts all the time. That's why I brought up Pttsburg. Steele jobs went away, there was a downturn, but the city imbraced a new industry and bounced back. These new jobs required a different skill set and education though, something we are not too found of promoting within the government today. So it doesn't need to be this doom and gloom thing, unless that's what we want to make it.

The whole point of the discussion comes down to the fact that automation reduces man hours. It doesn't matter how many people are involved in making a car now. I don't need a detailed understanding of that to know that the goal is to decrease the number of man hours, and it has and will continue to decrease. I'm also not talking about now. In my first post on the subject I was talking 50 years from now.

That said, Nebfanatic made some really good points that are good answers to what myself and others are saying.

All I'm trying to do is give a little more perspectiven since evaluating the economics and feasibility of automation is part of my job. Yes, the steady implementation of automation will continue to march on, but there is plenty of time for us to plan for it (if we choose to), and be proactive. It's not all doom and gloom.

[RedDenver]

All I'm trying to do is give a little more perspectiven since evaluating the economics and feasibility of automation is part of my job. Yes, the steady implementation of automation will continue to march on, but there is plenty of time for us to plan for it (if we choose to), and be proactive. It's not all doom and gloom.

This gets to the heart of the matter. How do we change to deal with automation? And do we have the motivation/will to actually change?

[Nebfanatic]

 

 

 

 

That right there is the lack of economoc insight I'm talking about. 10k isn't going to fully replace a human's job, and there is still going to be maintenance and reprogramming on that robot.

You're missing two major points here:

1) How many workers can be displaced before the economy collapses?

Even if automation only cuts 30% of jobs that would leave us with Great Depression era levels of unemployment.

 

2) What happens when AI can do the reprogramming and another robot does the maintenance?

This might seem sci-fi and off in the distant future, but tech companies are already working on AI using machine learning to do programming.

1) that's why I'm arguing for a highly educated working class. From blue collar to white collar and everywhere in between. I'm a firm believea that an educated country is the solution to our future problems.

 

2) Thats amazing and will be an awesome achievement, but all this still has to scale. Material isn't free or even cheap.

We pretty much agree. Although I'll point out that material costs are separate from the manufacturing process (i.e. you need the material either way), and many industries (like services or software) have little to no material needs.

 

In a world of automation there will be new jobs for people in other areas. We will create new industries and avenues of revenue and people will continue. I understand the concern, but there is always more to be created by human hands.

^This

 

My brother works in an industry that has lots of machines and robots so I do appreciate it, but it's not that relevant that people are required to maintain and design this, because in the end what it comes down to is that less humans are required to maintain and design robots/automation than were required to do the work itself. At some point it seems that's going to be a problem for capitalist societies.

I'm sure you think you do. But as someone who goes to a car assembly plant almost weekly, you have no idea how many people are still involved in making a car model. It's not just OEMs, but there are still hundreds of suppliers that suspport that production. There are plenty of jobs left for people, and there will be for quite sometime. We have time to educate our citizens and be proactive.

 

Industry shifts all the time. That's why I brought up Pttsburg. Steele jobs went away, there was a downturn, but the city imbraced a new industry and bounced back. These new jobs required a different skill set and education though, something we are not too found of promoting within the government today. So it doesn't need to be this doom and gloom thing, unless that's what we want to make it.

Have you considered that the car assembly plant you go to does not represent the future of automation? Technologies like 3D printing and customizable electronics can eliminate a lot of the OEM and supply chain.

 

I certainly hope we have time for people to adjust and adapt to a new economy and new jobs, but that's not guaranteed. My concern is what do we do if the new jobs aren't being created as fast as automation is removing the old jobs?

These business owners we speak of wanting to save money by automating must still make money remember. If we cut out 80% of the work force that would decimate the consumer base, something much more threatening to business owners than labor cost.

 

America's elite need the work force to continue making money so they continue spending it. The economy would die if you stopped the consumers cash flow. So basically what I'm saying is I'm sure this is something business owners have thought about and planned for via upcoming new industries and avenues to make money as a consumer level citizen. Also my belief jobs won't run out is based in faith of the idea there is always more and an abundance of enough if sought.

That's exactly right. The problem is that it's in each company's best interest to use automation to save costs and therefore drive up profits, but if they all do it then it will actually drive down profits (or crash the economy) as you've said. How do you convince companies to do something that is not in their own best interest but instead is in the interests of the group as a whole? You're basically asking them to not maximize their own profits.

We have to hope these companies have enough for sight to understand how to 'sustainably' maximize profit. They have to recognize, at the end of the day they are paid by working class citizens who buy their products. Without those people and their money most business models will fail. Few companies can make a large profit exclusively catering to the rich. I think most owners of large business have enough vision to know that consumers are the lifeblood of their business and if they cut into consumer cash flow that significantly they are only hurting themselves. They will still push to automate and cut costs where they can but I think you aren't going to see a scenario where automation leaves 100 million people jobless with no real career paths available. I think the work force and the careers they occupy will evolve and continue on. If not it will be bad for everyone and the people who pushed for automation will be upset they even had the idea in the first place

[RedDenver]

I don't have your confidence that people have enough foresight. We all rationalize our own behavior especially when it comes to how we make a living. I think it will take a major economic event (bigger than the recent Great Recession) to cause real change. Only time will tell.

[ZRod]

I'm only optimistic because there is time. Whether our politicians have the foresight to take the action necessary to realign our work force is a totally different subject. One that fills me with pessimism.

[Nebfanatic]

People have always adapted to sudden change over time. We have only grown with it. There have been many instances where new inventions or industries rendered jobs previously essential, obsolete. It will happen again and again and people will overcome again and again and grow and adapt to the new situation.

 

I do think a sudden switch to a highly automated world could result in an economic "disaster" for a time, but again we would likely come out of this disaster with better solutions for the future. The great depression spawned some of the greatest ideas of the 20th century.

 

While obviously this isn't a direct answer or solution to the problems posed when it comes to automation, or anything for that matter, it is good to keep in mind.