Russia

[commando]

am starting to see some reports that the ukrainian counter offensive might have started.   

[teachercd]

1 hour ago, commando said:

am starting to see some reports that the ukrainian counter offensive might have started.   

You know, when this started I felt that at best Ukraine would dig in and hope for a stalemate.  

 

But now, they might actually get a surrender or a treaty initiated by Russia.  I normally would rank the Polacks (I am one, so I can say it, you racists can't ha), as the toughest freaking fighters in Europe...but Ukraine is probably the new #1.

 

The more unpopular the Ukrainians can make this war in Russia, the sooner it ends (and the sanctions can be lifted because I have some Russian bank stock that I need to sell)

[Decked]

The Ukrainians are going to find tough, bloody ground on the offensive. The equipment capture and casualties will be enormous. They would be lucky to capture significant ground in Crimea and other objectives. I have a hard time seeing this being anymore than a continuous bleed of men, women, & technology. This is going to be brutal for both sides. Bakhmut alone is reminiscent of a light version of Stalingrad. I can only imagine the psyche of a Wagnerite or Ukrainian solider being stationed to die in a rubble belt of formerly 20k people.  
 

Hope to the Ukrainians but I just don’t see enough equipment to make a splash like the world thinks is going to happen. Zelensky seems to have already tried to tamper down the expectations but without a large land grab it’s hard to see international support continue roll in. And if somehow the republicans win the Ukrainians are toast. 

[Moiraine]

3 hours ago, Decked said:

The Ukrainians are going to find tough, bloody ground on the offensive. The equipment capture and casualties will be enormous. They would be lucky to capture significant ground in Crimea and other objectives. I have a hard time seeing this being anymore than a continuous bleed of men, women, & technology. This is going to be brutal for both sides. Bakhmut alone is reminiscent of a light version of Stalingrad. I can only imagine the psyche of a Wagnerite or Ukrainian solider being stationed to die in a rubble belt of formerly 20k people.  
 

Hope to the Ukrainians but I just don’t see enough equipment to make a splash like the world thinks is going to happen. Zelensky seems to have already tried to tamper down the expectations but without a large land grab it’s hard to see international support continue roll in. And if somehow the republicans win the Ukrainians are toast. 

 

 

It will go well, but they may not reach Crimea. It’s hard to overstate how bad Russia’s tactics have been. The regular army has been running away. Their equipment isn’t as good as Ukraine’s. Their artillery can’t reach as far. Their supply lines are stretched. Ukraine gained ground around Kherson far more quickly than Russia has anywhere lately. 

Also, there are reports today that Ukraine has taken 2 villages in the direction the counteroffensive is expected to go, and there is also a report that the Russian regular army ambushed some Wagner forces in Bakhmut, and Wagner captured some of the Russian soldiers. The Russian military is a complete s#!tshow right now if compared against what it should be as a supposed power.

[Moiraine]

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Isn't part of the problem with any Crimea or Eastern offensive the fact that a significant portion of the population is pro-Russia? 

[Guy Chamberlin]

2 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Isn't part of the problem with any Crimea or Eastern offensive the fact that a significant portion of the population is pro-Russia? 

 

Why the laughing face?

[ZRod]

1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Why the laughing face?

I don't know why the laughing face, but yes and no. Russia basically tried to colonize Crimea like the Brits did with Northern Ireland. You bring in a population who is favorable to your governance and have them push out the "rif raff" and everything is hunky dory for a take over. I don't think the pro Russia population are long term residents there.

[Guy Chamberlin]

2 hours ago, ZRod said:

I don't know why the laughing face, but yes and no. Russia basically tried to colonize Crimea like the Brits did with Northern Ireland. You bring in a population who is favorable to your governance and have them push out the "rif raff" and everything is hunky dory for a take over. I don't think the pro Russia population are long term residents there.

 

Either way, if you are a "liberating force" and you can't trust the local population when your back is turned, it makes both the military invasion and the replacement government compromised. 

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Either way, if you are a "liberating force" and you can't trust the local population when your back is turned, it makes both the military invasion and the replacement government compromised. 

 

 

I think their support of Russia has been overstated.

[Moiraine]

 

[Scarlet]

Only a military that knows they're not going to hold this area for much longer would resort to this.  

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

12 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I think their support of Russia has been overstated.

 

Or maybe not:

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-ukraine-ever-win-over-crimea-and-the-donbas/

[knapplc]

26 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Or maybe not:

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-ukraine-ever-win-over-crimea-and-the-donbas/

 

I'm not seeing how this article runs counter to @Moiraine's point.