The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Scarlet]

7 hours ago, nic said:

A Friend of ours finally got out of Britain after a year and a half of mostly lockdown. She came to the states a few weeks ago and planned to go back soon. Her friends told her to stay in the states, because there is nothing to come back to. Shelves are mostly bare. Doesn’t sound fun across the pond. 
 

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/11/business/london-food-banks-cnnphotos/

It's Biden's fault

[nic]

2 hours ago, Scarlet said:

It's Biden's fault

I would say, pandemic, lockdowns, global supply chain. They don’t have truck drivers. They are probably short of workers. Inflation was the biggest issue...Possibly headed for stagflation. The article mentioned Brexit as a reason for worker shortages. The policies Biden and Trump did that may have played into this was not letting folks come to the states. I am not sure.

[knapplc]

1 hour ago, nic said:

I would say, pandemic, lockdowns, global supply chain. They don’t have truck drivers. They are probably short of workers. Inflation was the biggest issue...Possibly headed for stagflation. The article mentioned Brexit as a reason for worker shortages. The policies Biden and Trump did that may have played into this was not letting folks come to the states. I am not sure.

 

The biggest driver of Britain's current woes is Brexit. It has almost nothing to do with President Biden or the other guy.

[Guy Chamberlin]

On 11/6/2021 at 6:35 PM, Jason Sitoke said:

Yes. I think my point isn’t that people shouldn’t be vaccinated. It’s that we are at a point where the vast majority of the population has some immunity. This should be taken at face value and shape the policies we institute 

 

Still not sure I understand. We're still looking at 40% of the population being unvaccinated, a number that appears to have solidified. Even figuring in lag times, we're averaging over 1,000 deaths a day during the downward cycle of this surge, with at least a small winter uptick expected. 

 

I guess we could let the unvaccinated continue to infect and kill the fellow unvaccinated, and take a few breakthrough fatalities as the collateral damage of freedom, but employers may not like this level of disruption and self policing, either. 

 

Also, we pretty much have let this shape the policies we institute. The inconsistencies, hypocrisy, enforcement, and compliance reflect an unprecedented health crisis being fought in real-time at every level of government and private business. 

 

I just don't get the part where people who hated the economic disruption the most refuse to accept the incredibly fortunate solution being provided. 

 

 

[Archy1221]

5 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Still not sure I understand. We're still looking at 40% of the population being unvaccinated, a number that appears to have solidified

A portion of that 40% has either been previously infected or has a single dose of a dual dose vaccine regimen.  Both offer some protection, prior infection almost the same amount as vaccinated, and add that into the fully vaccinated population and I believe that is why Jason thinking the way he is.  Hoping I’m not putting words in his mouth. 

[Jason Sitoke]

7 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Still not sure I understand. We're still looking at 40% of the population being unvaccinated, a number that appears to have solidified. Even figuring in lag times, we're averaging over 1,000 deaths a day during the downward cycle of this surge, with at least a small winter uptick expected. 

 

I guess we could let the unvaccinated continue to infect and kill the fellow unvaccinated, and take a few breakthrough fatalities as the collateral damage of freedom, but employers may not like this level of disruption and self policing, either. 

 

Also, we pretty much have let this shape the policies we institute. The inconsistencies, hypocrisy, enforcement, and compliance reflect an unprecedented health crisis being fought in real-time at every level of government and private business. 

 

I just don't get the part where people who hated the economic disruption the most refuse to accept the incredibly fortunate solution being provided. 

 

 

I think what I'm driving at is that while 40% are unvaccinated, far fewer have no acquired immunity.  This is fairly obvious because this last surge was significant and generally affected previously unvaccinated individuals.  It is unfortunate that it happened, but either way here we are.  If we are shaping policy to address a public health crisis, we have to acknowledge where we are in the crisis.  This line in the sand came way too late to make much of a difference, IMO.  

 

As far as how employers feel about disruption, all I can say is that I live in a top 5 hotspot for cases currently, and I myself haven't experienced any perturbations in my company from COVID.

 

Overall, of course I believe everyone should get vaccinated and it is truly puzzling how so many have chosen to avoid it.  Presently, one has to only look at a state like Louisiana, which is in the bottom 5 states for vaccination.  This last surge was intense and killed way more people than it should have, but at this point they have fewer hospitalizations than at any point in the pandemic.  Case numbers are back to mid summer numbers.  The reason looks to be that the virus ran out of unvaccinated bodies and has receded.  If you can acknowledge that, then you should also question what you are trying to accomplish by demanding a state populous that looks to be largely immune at this point to get vaccinated?

[BigRedBuster]

2 hours ago, nic said:

I would say, pandemic, lockdowns, global supply chain. They don’t have truck drivers. They are probably short of workers. Inflation was the biggest issue...Possibly headed for stagflation. The article mentioned Brexit as a reason for worker shortages. The policies Biden and Trump did that may have played into this was not letting folks come to the states. I am not sure.

It sure as hell hasn't helped with the situation.

 

Immigration needs fixed immediately and everyone in Washington seems to just ignore it.

[knapplc]

4 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

If you can acknowledge that, then you should also question what you are trying to accomplish by demanding a state populous that looks to be largely immune at this point to get vaccinated?

 

Duration of immunity, among other things. 

 

 

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/covid-19-studies-natural-immunity-versus-vaccination

 

 

A third of infections don't get any protective antibodies

Some people who get COVID-19 receive no protection from reinfection – their natural immunity is nonexistent. A recent study found that 36% of COVID-19 cases didn't result in development of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The people had different levels of illness – most had moderate disease, but some were asymptomatic and some experienced severe COVID-19. 

"Vaccine-induced immunity is more predictable than natural immunity," says Dr. Rupp. The COVID-19 vaccines provide great protection from severe disease, hospitalization and death.

Natural immunity fades more quickly than vaccine immunity

Natural immunity can decay within about 90 days. Immunity from COVID-19 vaccines has been shown to last longer. Both Pfizer and Moderna reported strong vaccine protection for at least six months. 

Studies are ongoing to evaluate the full duration of protective immunity, including the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Real-world studies also indicate natural immunity's short life. For example, 65% of people with a lower baseline antibody from infection to begin with completely lost their COVID-19 antibodies by 60 days.

What about that Israeli study suggesting natural immunity is stronger? Infectious diseases expert James Lawler, MD, MPH, FIDSA, carefully evaluates the study design of the retrospective Maccabi Health System study in his Aug. 31 briefing. In the briefing, he identifies two concerning sources of error that were not corrected for: survivorship bias and selection bias.

Natural immunity alone is weak

One study compared natural immunity alone to natural immunity plus vaccination. They found that, after infection, unvaccinated people are 2.34 times likelier to get COVID-19 again, compared to fully vaccinated people. So vaccinated people (after infection) have half the risk of reinfection than people relying on natural immunity alone.

"Studies show that the vaccine gives a very good booster response if you've had COVID-19 before," says Dr. Rupp.

Furthermore, there is no country on the globe in which natural infection and natural immunity has brought the pandemic under control. In countries like Iran or Brazil very high levels of natural infection have not prevented recurrent waves of infection.  

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

10 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

A portion of that 40% has either been previously infected or has a single dose of a dual dose vaccine regimen.  Both offer some protection, prior infection almost the same amount as vaccinated, and add that into the fully vaccinated population and I believe that is why Jason thinking the way he is.  Hoping I’m not putting words in his mouth. 

 

If the 1,000+ weekly deaths are coming almost entirely from the unvaccinated, a trend that's been going on for months, it's hard to say we have herd immunity --- we've merely limited the at-risk population. According to Fox News four days ago, an unvaccinated person with prior COVID infection is five times more likely to contract COVID versus a vaccinated person. Not sure where you get your numbers.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/prior-covid-19-infection-protect-vaccine-reinfection-cdc

 

As leading as this  may sound,  you can make a better case that the government is trying to stop mostly Republican voters from killing themselves and each other. 

 

Again, if we could limit the breakthrough infections and not overload the healthcare system, it is tempting to let freedom reign. Follow your heart and Aaron Rodger's medical research, respect the rights of private businesses, and we'll check back in a year. 

[Jason Sitoke]

1 minute ago, knapplc said:

 

Duration of immunity, among other things. 

 

 

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/covid-19-studies-natural-immunity-versus-vaccination

 

 

A third of infections don't get any protective antibodies

Some people who get COVID-19 receive no protection from reinfection – their natural immunity is nonexistent. A recent study found that 36% of COVID-19 cases didn't result in development of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The people had different levels of illness – most had moderate disease, but some were asymptomatic and some experienced severe COVID-19. 

"Vaccine-induced immunity is more predictable than natural immunity," says Dr. Rupp. The COVID-19 vaccines provide great protection from severe disease, hospitalization and death.

Natural immunity fades more quickly than vaccine immunity

Natural immunity can decay within about 90 days. Immunity from COVID-19 vaccines has been shown to last longer. Both Pfizer and Moderna reported strong vaccine protection for at least six months. 

Studies are ongoing to evaluate the full duration of protective immunity, including the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Real-world studies also indicate natural immunity's short life. For example, 65% of people with a lower baseline antibody from infection to begin with completely lost their COVID-19 antibodies by 60 days.

What about that Israeli study suggesting natural immunity is stronger? Infectious diseases expert James Lawler, MD, MPH, FIDSA, carefully evaluates the study design of the retrospective Maccabi Health System study in his Aug. 31 briefing. In the briefing, he identifies two concerning sources of error that were not corrected for: survivorship bias and selection bias.

Natural immunity alone is weak

One study compared natural immunity alone to natural immunity plus vaccination. They found that, after infection, unvaccinated people are 2.34 times likelier to get COVID-19 again, compared to fully vaccinated people. So vaccinated people (after infection) have half the risk of reinfection than people relying on natural immunity alone.

"Studies show that the vaccine gives a very good booster response if you've had COVID-19 before," says Dr. Rupp.

Furthermore, there is no country on the globe in which natural infection and natural immunity has brought the pandemic under control. In countries like Iran or Brazil very high levels of natural infection have not prevented recurrent waves of infection.  

 

I'm familiar with these recent studies.  Why we're talking about antibodies alone again as the only measure of protection is odd, but that's another topic.  Regardless of which one is better is kind of splitting hairs.  J&J vaccine had 30% less efficacy against infection, but we weren't picky because we were trying to get shots in arms and get some level of immunity into the populous.  If natural immunity is indeed weaker, it is still a measure of protection...and appears to be gaining critical mass to end this last surge.

[knapplc]

2 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

I'm familiar with these recent studies.  Why we're talking about antibodies alone again as the only measure of protection is odd, but that's another topic.  Regardless of which one is better is kind of splitting hairs.  J&J vaccine had 30% less efficacy against infection, but we weren't picky because we were trying to get shots in arms and get some level of immunity into the populous.  If natural immunity is indeed weaker, it is still a measure of protection...and appears to be gaining critical mass to end this last surge.

 

I'm quite certain Nebraska Med knows what they're talking about. 

 

And your last sentence is nonsensical. Clearly natural "immunity" isn't immunity. It's the weakest of the options, it is worst against preventing recurrence, hospitalization and death, and it leads to a much higher death toll than vaccination.

 

Vaccination is superior in every respect. Period. A population of 40% unvaccinated means we have to keep health measures in place because "natural immunity" to this disease is a boondoggle. 

[Jason Sitoke]

2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I'm quite certain Nebraska Med knows what they're talking about. 

I'm quite certain I have no idea what this response means

[BigRedBuster]

I still believe that now that we have a vaccine and we have a lot of people vaccinated and anyone who wants to get vaccinated can very easily and it's free......things like this idiotic OSHA ETS are just flat out wrong and the courts need to uphold the stay that was put in place on Saturday.

 

I'm a firm believer in the vaccine and I am vaccinated.  At this point, I (along with other vaccinated people) should not have to deal with this crap to this extent.  I am more than willing to wear a mask in a business if I'm asked to.  They don't know my vax status.  I'm not going to get upset and make a big stink over it.  But, we have got to get back to some form of normalcy and this ETS is one hell of a step in the wrong direction.

[Jason Sitoke]

7 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I'm quite certain Nebraska Med knows what they're talking about. 

 

And your last sentence is nonsensical. Clearly natural "immunity" isn't immunity. It's the weakest of the options, it is worst against preventing recurrence, hospitalization and death, and it leads to a much higher death toll than vaccination.

 

Vaccination is superior in every respect. Period. A population of 40% unvaccinated means we have to keep health measures in place because "natural immunity" to this disease is a boondoggle. 

So let me ask you this....how do pandemics end without vaccines?  Why don't 5 million people die of the flu every year since you're back to square one with flaky natural immunity?

[knapplc]

2 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

So let me ask you this....how do pandemics end without vaccines?  Why don't 5 million people die of the flu every year since you're back to square one with flaky natural immunity?

 

Before we had vaccines? Generations of people died before we reached actual immunity. That's a rather barbaric option in light of modern science, isn't it?