Big 10 only Schedule = Winning Season Yes or No

[TGHusker]

Can Nebraska have a winning season if we play a Big 10 only schedule.  It seems to me that it will be very difficult to do so based on several factors:

 

 

These are the factors I see as standing in the way of a winning Big 10 only season.

1.  Lack of spring practice

2. While our non-conf schedule wasn't a cupcake, it was perceived as being much more winnable than the last 5 games of the season. Our hope to have a bowl game and winning season was based on us beating our non-conference foes before we enter the murderers row @ the end of the season.

3. If the Big 10 schedule remains with the same cross over teams of OSU and PSU + more from the East like Mich it will be a tough road

4. Our team is being built around an influx of new quality talent, but that talent has not been tested yet.

5.  Adjusting to new coaches on O and on D. 

6. We have yet to prove that we are heads and shoulders better than our weaker Big 10 brothers.  Until we learn to win consistently the games we should win, this is still an area of doubt. 

 

Possible reasons to be hopeful

1. New talent is an upgrade  from past talent and it will be seen on the field.

2. The players are now all buying into the Frost system.   Cohesiveness can enable a team to develop faster and perform on a higher level.

3. The coaches are smarter.  Arrogance is gone and humility is at work.  They have seen that the Big 10 won't so easily need to 'adjust to SF's system' - but we have to adjust to the level of play in this league

4. Coaching upgrades

5. Related to # 2, players should have the drive to prove themselves.  No one expected 2 losing seasons to begin the Frost era. Time for it to end.

6. Every Big 10 west team is beatable - even Wisc.  We should have beaten Iowa and Wisc last year but didn't end it well.  Minny was a fluke in some ways and a lesson learned.  I think we took Minny for granted and came in unprepared mentally for that game. 

 

 

I've added a few of points on the positive that  @knapplcmade.   Points that  I agree with that can help me look on the bright side :

1. Better OL

2. Davis will have an Oz like breakout year

3. QB play will be better this year - either by AM or by #2 turning into # 1 QB - McCaffrey

4. Better D - esp what could be an outstanding back 7

5. Better ST play - punting, kicking, FG, coverage

 

I have added another question based on the comment  @Undone  made below

Would the team be better off development wise if the season was canceled?

My quick pros and cons on the issue:

 

Pros to canceling the season: 

No spring practice - No bowl game practice:  NU is behind other teams in develpment

A lot of new young talent that has not been developed

New coaches need time to develop the players they now lead

 

Cons to canceling the season:

There is no better development than real games

Players may regress without games to motivate

The talent is young, but much better - they will be ready

 

[knapplc]

Ever the optimist when it comes to Nebraska being back, I voted yes on both polls.

 

I think we have more pieces in place this year than last year. I think our O Line has a chance to be not just solid, but a unit we can count on. I think Dedrick Mills is in line for an Ozigbo-like senior year. I think 2AM is either going to step up or step down, and if he steps down it's because McCaffrey is ready to take the reins. I think we've got a solid defense and enough focus on Special Teams to see improvement over last year.

 

And frankly, if we had just had a better FG team last year, we get a couple more wins and a bowl game. We're getting closer to being competitive with our B1G West brethren.

[lo country]

I said yes to both.  Part of me honestly feels better not having to play Cincy, SDSU and Central Michigan.....Every one a trap game.  Teams putting in packages all summer to knock of NU....VS B1G teams preparing one week at a time........A lot depends on if the schedule stays how it is and who we get that we are not slated to play yet.

 

Like @knapplcsays, we have a chance to be WAY better on offense.  I think our back 7 on D will be better/healthier and having a kicker who can get FG's more often than not means we win one or 2 we usually wouldn't.....

[Undone]

33 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

And frankly, if we had just had a better FG team last year, we get a couple more wins and a bowl game. We're getting closer to being competitive with our B1G West brethren.

 

Yes! And a good place kicker as well.

 

I wonder if not having the season could be good for our program? Maybe that's another potential thread topic.

[TGHusker]

15 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Yes! And a good place kicker as well.

 

I wonder if not having the season could be good for our program? Maybe that's another potential thread topic.

I was wondering out loud about the bold  in the other thread (will there be a season thread) since we did not have spring practice, we are at a disadvantage.  It would also give our young talent time to develop.    

[Undone]

5 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

It would also give our young talent time to develop.

 

Yeah imagine if these young offensive linemen were motivated to spend the next 10 months working hard in the weight room & eating their meal plans, etc. 

[TGHusker]

1 minute ago, Undone said:

 

Yeah imagine if these young offensive linemen were motivated to spend the next 10 months working hard in the weight room & eating their meal plans, etc. 

I just added your ?? to the poll

[deedsker]

We can't say a field goal kicker is going to hit every field goal and I don't know what the touchback rate is for the average power five kicker, but here are a list of game changers from last season from highly changes into a win to probably helps but wouldn't change the outcome:

 

Iowa- A solid kicker keeps Smith-Marsette from returning any kickoffs, and Iowa doesn't get a kick return for touchdown to keep Nebraska at a arms length away. Nebraska likely keeps it a one score game going into half and Iowa's offense collapses in the second half and cannot manage a comeback when Nebraska takes the lead.

 

Colorado- We don't miss our OT field goal and the game continues as a coin flip. This one also felt different on how we ran plays in OT because of our kicking situation. 

 

Indiana- We don't miss an easy field goal in the second quarter and have an 8 point lead at half. Nothing else changes and we still likely lose, but we would be marching for the win and not trying to tie at the end.

 

Wisconsin- Another kick return for touchdown avoided, multiple missed field goals makes the game come down to the wire. Wisky likely still wins, but it is probably not until their final possession.

 

Northwestern- We don't miss an easy field goal and no longer need a game winning field goal, but rather just run out the clock.

[Decoy73]

I predict we won’t lose a game this season and I’m not happy about that.   That being said, I voted no-yes-no.   On a brighter note, I truly believe that ST, O-line and LB play will be trending up.   Some obvious attention has been given to those problem areas.   Better days are coming.  

[TGHusker]

2 hours ago, deedsker said:

We can't say a field goal kicker is going to hit every field goal and I don't know what the touchback rate is for the average power five kicker, but here are a list of game changers from last season from highly changes into a win to probably helps but wouldn't change the outcome:

 

Iowa- A solid kicker keeps Smith-Marsette from returning any kickoffs, and Iowa doesn't get a kick return for touchdown to keep Nebraska at a arms length away. Nebraska likely keeps it a one score game going into half and Iowa's offense collapses in the second half and cannot manage a comeback when Nebraska takes the lead.

 

Colorado- We don't miss our OT field goal and the game continues as a coin flip. This one also felt different on how we ran plays in OT because of our kicking situation. 

 

Indiana- We don't miss an easy field goal in the second quarter and have an 8 point lead at half. Nothing else changes and we still likely lose, but we would be marching for the win and not trying to tie at the end.

 

Wisconsin- Another kick return for touchdown avoided, multiple missed field goals makes the game come down to the wire. Wisky likely still wins, but it is probably not until their final possession.

 

Northwestern- We don't miss an easy field goal and no longer need a game winning field goal, but rather just run out the clock.

So basically, NU just has to develop that killer wining attitude wt the expected improvement on ST.   We just didn't close out games as we should have. The Colorado game was a prime example - up by 17 at half and then we melted away.  Indiana and Iowa were games we should have taken control of.  If we develop the winning mindset and cast off the past mindset of losing we can get over this hump and have a successful season. 

[TGHusker]

Regarding question 3 above,  JR Colleges going to a spring schedule

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/recruiting/as-iwcc-jucos-plan-for-spring-football-husker-fans-may-want-to-keep-tabs-on/article_5843f86b-e81b-5e4d-9914-6d70781a8d0c.amp.html

Quote

 

Junior colleges across the country are now faced with the reality that Division I college football hopes to avoid: No football this fall.

The NJCAA announced Monday that it will not play football this fall and instead will focus on preparing for a spring season. A similar type of move can’t be categorically counted out at the DI level, but most schools have talked about the idea of a spring season as nothing more than an absolute last resort.

For Iowa Western Community College head coach Scott Strohmeier, though, this is the new reality. And while he readily admits it’s not an ideal setup — what has been so far this year? — he actually thinks his program can make it work.

 

 

[Ulty]

I would be satisfied with a 6-4 record in this scenario, but I voted no on actually having a winning record. I can see it happening, but I am very skeptical after the soul-deflating disappointments of the last couple of years. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

If Nebraska was unable to get to 6 wins for the last few seasons with non-conference games, why would they be able to do it with only conference games? Nebraska has struggled against B1G for a decade.

 

If Nebraska us given a favorable cross over schedule, going 5-5 is realistic. If the current conference schedule is kept with a Michigan school added, 3-7 is my prediction. 

[Husker in WI]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

If Nebraska was unable to get to 6 wins for the last few seasons with non-conference games, why would they be able to do it with only conference games? Nebraska has struggled against B1G for a decade.

 

If Nebraska us given a favorable cross over schedule, going 5-5 is realistic. If the current conference schedule is kept with a Michigan school added, 3-7 is my prediction. 

 

It's a new team and a new season! Definitely reasonable to doubt given recent history, but we've been close in a lot of conference games and I think we'll break through. It does depend on the cross over schedule, but adding MSU isn't a loss for me - they were trending down to begin with, and I don't know that the coaching change immediately fixes that. 

[knapplc]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

If Nebraska was unable to get to 6 wins for the last few seasons with non-conference games, why would they be able to do it with only conference games? Nebraska has struggled against B1G for a decade.

 

If Nebraska us given a favorable cross over schedule, going 5-5 is realistic. If the current conference schedule is kept with a Michigan school added, 3-7 is my prediction. 

 

This is a logical question, considering the fact that we've gone 6-12 in conference in Frost's two seasons. I think there are two reasons why people could have hope of improving even coming of back-to-back 3-6 conference records:

 

1) Half of those losses were by one score, so we were competitive in many of those games. Win those and that's six wins.

2) Frost's roster turnover is pretty much complete, and while we have a young team, we've got the guys he (apparently) wants.

 

So, better play in, say, Special Teams and just a better overall fit of player could lead to an uptick in wins.