BigRedBuster Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, funhusker said: Lets say a research place calls 200 people. Question #1: What is your age? Question #2: Did you vote early? Question #3: Did you primarily vote Dem or GOP? 200 people answer "18-29" to #1 100 people answer "yes" to #2 72 people answer "Dem" to #3 I'm not a statistician, but it wouldn't be hard to make a claim from the data. Even if it ends up being wildly inaccurate. OK...but, my point is, that's how polls are done before an election and the are notoriously wrong. They also have a decent margin of error built in. So....then the election happens and after the election, we here..."Well, polls were wrong before the election saying white educated women were going to vote Democrat 32%. Now, we know they voted Democrat 56%". I obviously made up the numbers. But, you get the gist. Polls before the election are looked at as....can be wrong. The numbers after the election are looked at as fact. Before the election, obviously there are people that lie or don't answer the phone that makes it off. What makes it better during or after the election? Link to comment
commando Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, teachercd said: What, why? People keep telling me how horrible America is?!?!?! stop listening to MAGA 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, commando said: stop listening to MAGA I love America... 1 Link to comment
funhusker Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: OK...but, my point is, that's how polls are done before an election and the are notoriously wrong. They also have a decent margin of error built in. So....then the election happens and after the election, we here..."Well, polls were wrong before the election saying white educated women were going to vote Democrat 32%. Now, we know they voted Democrat 56%". I obviously made up the numbers. But, you get the gist. Polls before the election are looked at as....can be wrong. The numbers after the election are looked at as fact. Before the election, obviously there are people that lie or don't answer the phone that makes it off. What makes it better during or after the election? And she could very well be wrong. Probably is. I thought you were asking how she could even have the data to begin to make a claim like the one in her Tweet. Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, funhusker said: And she could very well be wrong. Probably is. I thought you were asking how she could even have the data to begin to make a claim like the one in her Tweet. Here's a whole website dedicated to this. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=[{"key"%3A"age"%2C"value"%3A"18-29"}%2C{"key"%3A"modeledParty"%2C"value"%3A"All"}]&state=PA&view_type=state Quote How? Leading into major elections, TargetSmart collects and aggregates early vote returns from states each day. Early vote data is then linked to our national voter registration database, where we can observe and report on the demographic and political composition of individuals that have voted early, absentee, or have requested a ballot. Link to comment
GSG Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: Similar type of bullshit they're mailing out here Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11395171/Democrat-hopeful-John-Fetterman-appears-misspeak-saying-celebrates-demise-Roe-v-Wade.html 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, Archy1221 said: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11395171/Democrat-hopeful-John-Fetterman-appears-misspeak-saying-celebrates-demise-Roe-v-Wade.html Ummm, it is a stutter or whatever. 1 Link to comment
NM11046 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 On 11/4/2022 at 4:03 PM, BigRedBuster said: OK...but, my point is, that's how polls are done before an election and the are notoriously wrong. They also have a decent margin of error built in. So....then the election happens and after the election, we here..."Well, polls were wrong before the election saying white educated women were going to vote Democrat 32%. Now, we know they voted Democrat 56%". I obviously made up the numbers. But, you get the gist. Polls before the election are looked at as....can be wrong. The numbers after the election are looked at as fact. Before the election, obviously there are people that lie or don't answer the phone that makes it off. What makes it better during or after the election? Really interesting discussion with a poll creator/analyzer from Cook Political Report on Preet this week. She says don't look at points difference between candidates but rather how far above or beyond someone is from 50% approval and how that's moving. For instance, Tim Ryan in OH, hasn't moved much from 45-46 all the campaign and the crazy hillbilly guy is steadily increasing - that should be a trend worth watching. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stay-tuned-with-preet/id1265845136?i=1000584900736 Link to comment
nic Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle pressed Gov. Kathy Hochul on crime and her plans to address it in New York City during an appearance on MSNBC on Friday, insisting New Yorkers don't feel safe. After Hochul touted getting guns off the streets in New York and her partnership with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Ruhle interrupted and emphasized that people do not feel good about crime in New York. "Okay, I’m gonna interrupt you then. Here’s the problem. We don't feel safe. You might be working closely with Mayor Adams, you may have spent a whole lot of money. But I walked into my pharmacy, and everything is on lockdown because of shoplifters. I am not going into the subway. People do not feel safe in this town. So you may have done these things, but right now, we’re not feeling good. Where worried we could be San Francisco," Ruhle said. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-on-one-with-gov-hochul/vi-AA13L92M?ocid=U348DHP%2CU348DHP&category=foryou 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 hour ago, nic said: MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle pressed Gov. Kathy Hochul on crime and her plans to address it in New York City during an appearance on MSNBC on Friday, insisting New Yorkers don't feel safe. After Hochul touted getting guns off the streets in New York and her partnership with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Ruhle interrupted and emphasized that people do not feel good about crime in New York. "Okay, I’m gonna interrupt you then. Here’s the problem. We don't feel safe. You might be working closely with Mayor Adams, you may have spent a whole lot of money. But I walked into my pharmacy, and everything is on lockdown because of shoplifters. I am not going into the subway. People do not feel safe in this town. So you may have done these things, but right now, we’re not feeling good. Where worried we could be San Francisco," Ruhle said. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-on-one-with-gov-hochul/vi-AA13L92M?ocid=U348DHP%2CU348DHP&category=foryou But it’s just a GOP talking point amirite. 1 Link to comment
NM11046 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 I have many friends in NYC. They don't feel any less safe than they have in the last 25 years. And the statistics dont' really play out that things are worse either. This looks at the last 29 years. https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf 2 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 4 hours ago, nic said: MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle pressed Gov. Kathy Hochul on crime and her plans to address it in New York City during an appearance on MSNBC on Friday, insisting New Yorkers don't feel safe. After Hochul touted getting guns off the streets in New York and her partnership with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Ruhle interrupted and emphasized that people do not feel good about crime in New York. "Okay, I’m gonna interrupt you then. Here’s the problem. We don't feel safe. You might be working closely with Mayor Adams, you may have spent a whole lot of money. But I walked into my pharmacy, and everything is on lockdown because of shoplifters. I am not going into the subway. People do not feel safe in this town. So you may have done these things, but right now, we’re not feeling good. Where worried we could be San Francisco," Ruhle said. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-on-one-with-gov-hochul/vi-AA13L92M?ocid=U348DHP%2CU348DHP&category=foryou I call BS. Ok, they found someone willing to claim they don’t feel safe. Goodie. For them. 2 Link to comment
nic Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, BigRedBuster said: I call BS. Ok, they found someone willing to claim they don’t feel safe. Goodie. For them. It was on msnbc though. That surprised me. I don’t live in a big city. It’s hard to know from news outlets being selective with their reporting what it’s like. The republican candidate is running on crime and inflation. I guess we will see if that message works. When was last time NY had republican gov? 2 decades ago? Link to comment
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