Saunders Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Quote Big Ten West football preview: Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota all have a shot If the old "Defense wins championships" adage were actually true, the Big Ten West would have won one by now. No division in major college football has collectively stuck to the "defense and a good run game" approach more religiously. On average, Big Ten West teams ran 64% of the time on standard downs last season; the national average was 59%, and only the FBS divisions with option stalwarts Air Force (MWC Mountain) and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt East) were higher. They stuck to the ground and asked their quarterbacks to bail them out on third-and-long, and when that (usually) didn't work, they turned the game over to a brilliant defense: The West's average defensive SP+ rating of 18.8 adjusted points per game was the lowest in FBS. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota all ranked in the top 10, and strangely, only Northwestern, typically as defensive as anyone, ranked worse than 32nd. Previewing the Big Ten West is like going back in time. The quarterbacks are mostly either unproven or proven in the wrong way, and the cup of good linebackers, centers and running backs overflows. But two things are pretty certain: The West race could go in any number of different directions, and the winner is going to be awfully good. Granted, the words "Big Ten" and "West" took on new definitions last week with the conference's announced additions of USC and UCLA. But let's preview what is currently the West division. https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34174449/big-ten-west-football-preview-expect-mad-scramble-top Quote 2022 projections TEAM SP+ RK OFF. DEF. AVG. W CONF. W BOWL ODDS Wisconsin 10 58 1 8.7 5.8 98% Minnesota 21 50 9 8.3 5.4 98% Nebraska 29 34 35 7.6 5.4 89% Purdue 35 38 34 7.3 4.9 93% Iowa 27 76 4 7.3 4.8 89% Illinois 82 103 51 3.9 2.0 14% Northwestern 85 105 60 3.6 1.5 6% 2 Quote Link to comment
Red Five Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 From the Nebraska section: What now, Scott Frost? As exciting as last year's division race turned out to be, a three-win team stole the headlines. Based on the stats Nebraska games produced, and the randomness associated with close games in particular, SP+ saw the Huskers as something far closer to a seven-win team than a three-win team last season. That suggests a rebound is coming. However ... they've fallen short of SP+ expectations for four straight years. My Second-Order Wins measure, which takes the predictive stats produced in a given game, tosses them into the air and says "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time," suggests Nebraska should have won about 23 games thus far under Frost. They've won 15. At some point, it's not randomness -- it's you. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment
Saunders Posted July 6, 2022 Author Share Posted July 6, 2022 Yup, that part definitely stuck out. Quote Link to comment
84HuskerLaw Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Certainly having a somewhat run heavier offense tends to help the defense by controlling clock and limiting possessions and cutting down on sack yards lost and ints and QB fumbles and sometimes injuries. But three or 4 run plays vs pass plays isn’t exactly a huge difference. Conservative play calling, time management and playing relatively error free, smart fb helps a bunch. This keeps scoring down and games closer on the scoreboard frequently. That’s Big Ten (historically at least) fb. Hard nosed, physical, power over finesse, etc. Still, good fundamentals like blocking and tackling are a Big Ten hallmark. Neb fb has, imo, been trending in the right direction defensively albeit with a very good roster with few superlative players. We need the offense to follow suit and STs to make drastic improvements across all aspects. STs is more a lack of practice and focus than talent, seemingly. Offense needs schematic fixes imo but Whipple is wise and savvy enough from many years to see this. Will it happen? Will luck be with us? Can we keep our contributors healthy and playing their guts out every snap? We will know very soon what the prospects will be. Quote Link to comment
Toe Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Projects Nebraska having more conference wins than Iowa and Purdue, but still doesn't include them in the 'have a shot' list. Quote Link to comment
Treand3 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, 84HuskerLaw said: Certainly having a somewhat run heavier offense tends to help the defense by controlling clock and limiting possessions and cutting down on sack yards lost and ints and QB fumbles and sometimes injuries. But three or 4 run plays vs pass plays isn’t exactly a huge difference. Conservative play calling, time management and playing relatively error free, smart fb helps a bunch. This keeps scoring down and games closer on the scoreboard frequently. That’s Big Ten (historically at least) fb. Hard nosed, physical, power over finesse, etc. Still, good fundamentals like blocking and tackling are a Big Ten hallmark. Neb fb has, imo, been trending in the right direction defensively albeit with a very good roster with few superlative players. We need the offense to follow suit and STs to make drastic improvements across all aspects. STs is more a lack of practice and focus than talent, seemingly. Offense needs schematic fixes imo but Whipple is wise and savvy enough from many years to see this. Will it happen? Will luck be with us? Can we keep our contributors healthy and playing their guts out every snap? We will know very soon what the prospects will be. Absolutely. The less opportunites you give the opponent to score, the higher chances you have to win on the things you mentioned including field position. This is enhanced if you as an opponent are mistake prone and are unable to put pressure on this approch by scoring TDs. Most offenses in the West don't have the vertical ability to stress weaker secondaries that usually get exposed in Indy. Granted you still have to be able to hold up in the run game and not give teams chances with turnovers. Winning the divison is usually the team that has the best run defense, the least TOs and can play the best field postion while having a prodcutive run game. We all know it isn't enough to win the whole thing as Iowa was eventually out talented by Michigan, NW by OSU and Wisconsin, who needed several mistakes by OSU to even be up at halftime in '19 even lost by double digits . None of these team could apply pressure offensively. As far a luck is concerned, we don't need it imo. Focus on the basics to meet where most of these teams are and then let your talent shine. As you mentioned, this conference will force you to be fundamentally sound or you'll pay more often than not. Quote Link to comment
runningblind Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 49 minutes ago, Toe said: Projects Nebraska having more conference wins than Iowa and Purdue, but still doesn't include them in the 'have a shot' list. Did you miss the part about where we have underperformed metrics every year? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment
Undone Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Red Five said: However ... they've fallen short of SP+ expectations for four straight years. My Second-Order Wins measure, which takes the predictive stats produced in a given game, tosses them into the air and says "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time," suggests Nebraska should have won about 23 games thus far under Frost. They've won 15. At some point, it's not randomness -- it's you. Well said by the writer. And also the problem had as much to do with the expected wins in the first place as the actual failures. Specifically then to this part: Quote SP+ saw the Huskers as something far closer to a seven-win team than a three-win team last season Grabbing seven wins in the Big 10 requires not having special teams that suck a** in at least half of the games you play. We arguably lost 3 games because of catastrophic, single-play special teams disasters last season. Scott deserved to be fired and frankly laughed at for having this kind of stuff happen in year 4. But somehow there's a chunk of fans that cling to This Time It's Different™. TL;DR: This is clearly a five win program, so just project the 'skers at 5-7 and you've fixed the "they always perform under expectations" problem. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment
Savage Husker Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 As much as that’s a knock on Frost, he’s also unwittingly acknowledging his SP+ stat is a bunk algorithm that is not worthy of predicting anything but false expectations. Quote Link to comment
sho Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, Mavric said: ESPN hates us... Considering both teams are leaving, I can sense some screwy officiating to ensure that Big XII championship game doesn't happen. Quote Link to comment
Hooked on Huskers Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 North by Northwestern 2018 .... First place in the West 2019 .... Dead last in the West 2020 .... First place in the West 2021 .... Dead last in the West 2022 .... First place in the West ?????? Quote Link to comment
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