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I'm thinking Nebraska and here is why. BYU suspensions, talent gap and home field advantage. I think their #1 RB will be out as well with injury.

 

I also have issue with the fact that BYU is a mid major program, and they stunk it up last year with five losses to other mid-major schools, while only beating three P5 schools. To get out of mid major status, they need to join a conference. Play 9 P5 schools plus an additional one or two in the non-con. Even an independent schedule like that will get BYU out of "mid major" classification.

 

 

 

 

"I'm thinking Nebraska and here is why. BYU suspensions, talent gap and home field advantage. I think their #1 RB will be out as well with injury."

 

 

I agree with you about the game, but there isn't a talent gap at lots of positions. BYU's 8th linebacker is a good player. All the WR on the roster are good players, and our 2nd string QB is a potential All American in a couple of years. When you say talent gap it sounds like you think BYU is a Sunbelt team with a couple nice players.

It sounds that way because that's the way you wanted it to sound. All he said was "talent gap" and you read everything else into it.

 

Fact is, BYU's average recruiting rank the past 4 years on rivals is 67.75. That's a talent gap, even if the ratings aren't perfect. But it doesn't mean Nebraska's going to win.

I would agree that BYU's talent is down from what it has been in the past, doesn't mean they don't have some talent though. The maturity level due to mission work is also a factor in making their team stronger. I see BYU trying to reduce their lack of elite athletes with size. Having receivers that big is to try and make up for a lack of speed/jumping ability. I am sure they are great receivers that catch the ball well, but no one is going to accuse them of being speed demons.

 

You have to be realistic BYU recruits in a pretty narrow window, they don't get a ton of non Mormon players because there isn't that many kids that are elite that want to live under the code of conduct that they are expected to live under. So that limits the pool that they are drawing from.

So when a player goes on a mission, does he focus on God or football for two years? I really think the missionary issue does not do any favors for the football program. I totally respect that they have the conviction to do that, and actually think it's pretty awesome. But it doesn't do anything for and probably is a disadvantage for the program.
Try to convince a college football coach to allow half his recruits each year go to the Peace Corps for 2 years. Oh, he doesn't get to pick which players and which positions. And some will leave before enrolling, some will leave after a year, and some will change their minds one way or another.

 

They don't get to train while they're gone, and some take a year or so to get their legs back once they return.

 

Any advantages a mission might give a player or program are far outweighed by the risks and negatives.

Huh? So, do you see it as an advantage or disadvantage?

Huge disadvantage. For every player who benefits from the added maturity of being a little older, three either never return to pre-mission form, lose significant time to injury, or lose their competitive edge. Not to mention the havoc it causes to the positional makeup of the team.

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1) There is a misconception about recruiting and star rating systems. Recruiting ratings are powerful sales tools, but wholly manufactured. Not one 5* recruit played in the most recent Superbike and neither of the 3 x 4*'s started. The Scout and Rivals sites are for fan fodder, but coaching staffs, especially in the SEC and B1G make far more of it than is real. They structure 6 and even 7 figure bonuses based on it.

 

2. To understand the sham that is the recruiting gig, you need to know how and why it evolved, and how it works today. It is important to know that at the 4-5 star level for 17 year olds, it's a little meaningful. More often than not, it just means an athlete reached puberty early, has a higher than normal testosterone count, or as often is the case, a kid that was held back a year in grade school (short bus academically). Parents also lie about there kids ages. The fact is a lot of it is just maturing processes and often genetics. Coaches rarely pay that much attention to the * count. What the want is a kid that fits ten and their system.

 

3. Who gets a star matters. You don't get any at first unless as a player you attend an expensive camp (Hudl, UnderArmor, Sparq, etc.) 70% of college athletes either do not have the tuition, or the drug pimp to pay the tuition and that's reality. You attend, you pay, you get a minimum of three stars. More than 3000 Scholes are issued each year, 2400 to kids that never attended a premere camp or got scouted other than by the coaches recruiting them.

 

4. None of you know how those services make money. But some P5 coaches get bonuses for rankings so you play up those stars. If you are LES Miles, Urban Meyer or Nick Sabin and chasing a kid, he's automatically a 4 star minimum even if he didn't attend a camp. The same kid chosen BYU, Iowa, Nebraska or KSTATE gets no more than three. It makes the process really tainted and skewed.

 

5. How good are recruiting classes for real? Who defeats who with considerable regularity. But that also assumes recruiting is everything and coaching is nothing.

 

6. Fans put an enormous emotional tie to "recruiting" but guys like Sabin, Miles, Meyer...they win because they and their staff can flat out coach most others. They prepare their teams better than others. Yes the have slightly better athletes but in reality, the delta between Alabama and other major P5's is athletically small. Great programs coach up players.

 

Now someone said something again about BYU as a Mid Major. That person obviously doesn't know much about the game, I suspect because that person is very young, maybe less than 30 years of age. BYU is not Western Illinois and if you keep insulting them, it will just go up on their board. Oregon did that just a few years ago and lost to BYU 38-8. Texas fans told each other BYU was not in their class and lost two straight 40-21 in Provo, and 41-7 in Austin. BYU'S only loss to Texas in 5 games came in a come-from-behind drive late in the 4th quarter in Austin (16-17 loss for BYU). In BYU'S first trip to Austin it won 22-17 and in the only other game the Longhorns ever played in Provo it lost 47-6. I realize Nebraska has a long and storied history against Texas, but does it own an 80% W/L record with 60% blowout wins, one sober knocker victory in Austin and a last minute 1 point loss? NO!

 

MY PREDICTION is that Nebraska will win by 3 because the game is in Lincoln. If this game were at a truly neutral site or in Provo I would favor BYU by 6. I thought BYU would maybe defeat Texas last year in Austin. Everyone knows how that went. I think Nebraska will be more difficult to beat in Lincoln. But don't be shocked if the program you foolishly call a mid major comes into Lincoln and pushes back everything Nebraska is used to did hung out.

 

By the way, I just checked and the running backs they do have averaged close to 6 yards a carry last year. Every team would miss a 3000 yard career senior RB. But BYU has talent there along wigh a deep veteran O-Line. Don't be thinking they can't run.

 

Hah! I wish I was less than 30. You made my day. Try this, argue whether or not BYU should be considered a mid-major based off their record against other P5 schools, their record against non-P5 schools, depth and comparative talent. Just because BYU can beat a downtrodden Texas, does not mean BYU belongs. Find a conference, schedule some better competition, beat that competition, and then reap the rewards. BTW, there is no misconception about star rankings, as much as I hate hate hate hate to admit it. The majority of teams that continually finish high in the recruiting rankings ultimately finish higher in the final rankings.

 

BTW, what does, ". . . mid major comes into Lincoln and pushes back everything Nebraska is used to did hung out" mean?

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I'm thinking Nebraska and here is why. BYU suspensions, talent gap and home field advantage. I think their #1 RB will be out as well with injury.

 

I also have issue with the fact that BYU is a mid major program, and they stunk it up last year with five losses to other mid-major schools, while only beating three P5 schools. To get out of mid major status, they need to join a conference. Play 9 P5 schools plus an additional one or two in the non-con. Even an independent schedule like that will get BYU out of "mid major" classification.

 

 

 

 

"I'm thinking Nebraska and here is why. BYU suspensions, talent gap and home field advantage. I think their #1 RB will be out as well with injury."

 

 

I agree with you about the game, but there isn't a talent gap at lots of positions. BYU's 8th linebacker is a good player. All the WR on the roster are good players, and our 2nd string QB is a potential All American in a couple of years. When you say talent gap it sounds like you think BYU is a Sunbelt team with a couple nice players.

It sounds that way because that's the way you wanted it to sound. All he said was "talent gap" and you read everything else into it.

 

Fact is, BYU's average recruiting rank the past 4 years on rivals is 67.75. That's a talent gap, even if the ratings aren't perfect. But it doesn't mean Nebraska's going to win.

I would agree that BYU's talent is down from what it has been in the past, doesn't mean they don't have some talent though. The maturity level due to mission work is also a factor in making their team stronger. I see BYU trying to reduce their lack of elite athletes with size. Having receivers that big is to try and make up for a lack of speed/jumping ability. I am sure they are great receivers that catch the ball well, but no one is going to accuse them of being speed demons.

 

You have to be realistic BYU recruits in a pretty narrow window, they don't get a ton of non Mormon players because there isn't that many kids that are elite that want to live under the code of conduct that they are expected to live under. So that limits the pool that they are drawing from.

So when a player goes on a mission, does he focus on God or football for two years? I really think the missionary issue does not do any favors for the football program. I totally respect that they have the conviction to do that, and actually think it's pretty awesome. But it doesn't do anything for and probably is a disadvantage for the program.
Try to convince a college football coach to allow half his recruits each year go to the Peace Corps for 2 years. Oh, he doesn't get to pick which players and which positions. And some will leave before enrolling, some will leave after a year, and some will change their minds one way or another.

 

They don't get to train while they're gone, and some take a year or so to get their legs back once they return.

 

Any advantages a mission might give a player or program are far outweighed by the risks and negatives.

Huh? So, do you see it as an advantage or disadvantage?

Huge disadvantage. For every player who benefits from the added maturity of being a little older, three either never return to pre-mission form, lose significant time to injury, or lose their competitive edge. Not to mention the havoc it causes to the positional makeup of the team.

 

 

That's what I figured. I think it's great that they have the conviction to go, but it has to really hurt the team.

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1) There is a misconception about recruiting and star rating systems. Recruiting ratings are powerful sales tools, but wholly manufactured. Not one 5* recruit played in the most recent Superbike and neither of the 3 x 4*'s started. The Scout and Rivals sites are for fan fodder, but coaching staffs, especially in the SEC and B1G make far more of it than is real. They structure 6 and even 7 figure bonuses based on it.

 

 

 

No 5 star recruits started in the super bowl because there are only 35 5 star players per year compared to ~3000 4 and 3 stars. That's called statistical probability, it's not hard.

 

As a better metric of whether recruiting and rating systems are legitimate or fairly accurate or not, let's take a look at the last 4 years' recruiting rankings of this year's 4 playoff teams.

 

Ohio State:

7th ranked class

3rd ranked class

3rd ranked class

5th ranked class

 

Florida State:

3rd ranked class

4th ranked class

11th ranked class

3rd ranked class

 

Alabama:

1st ranked class

1st ranked class

1st ranked class

1st ranked class

 

Oregon:

16th ranked class

21st ranked class

19th ranked class

13th ranked class

 

 

 

 

Not convinced? Let's take a look at the 4 classes that made some other random teams that weren't coached by Saban, Meyer or Miles, since you claim those three only have good teams because they are SOOOOO good at coaching:

 

 

2009 Texas - 4 classes preceding were ranked 7th, 4th, 5th and 14th.

2008 Oklahoma - 4 classes preceding were ranked 18th, 8th, 2nd and 8th.

2012 Auburn - 4 classes preceding were ranked 11th, 5th, 6th and 23rd.

2001 Miami - 2 classes preceding were ranked 8th and 7th (couldn't quickly find info on further back)

 

 

 

 

Just a few examples to pretty obviously disprove your point, which you spent way, way, way too much time typing out on mobile.

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BYU beats Texas 2 out of their 3 meetings which happens to coincide with Texas' worst results in decades and suddenly, along with tall cornerbacks and an Elite 11 backup QB they belong with all the big boys.

 

 

I'm trying to somehow work in a joke involving the South Park Mormonism episode in here. "This is what BYU fans really believe."

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BTW, what does, ". . . mid major comes into Lincoln and pushes back everything Nebraska is used to did hung out" mean?

Pretty sure that was intended to be a disparaging remark having to do with hemorrhoids or some such thing. Pushing back stuff that used to hang out......seems fairly vulgar IMO.

 

BTW, sorry for any typos...this darned mobile device #!/$^@&/%.

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BYU sucks at football and represents a colossal misunderstanding of the reality of Jesus Christ and His teachings found in Mormonism

 

Haha. Your school is still in Lincoln Nebraska.

As opposed to...Utah?
"Well, in those days, Mars was just a dreary uninhabitable wasteland. Much like Utah. But unlike Utah, it was eventually made livable."
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