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The General Election


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Trump has now taken the lead in both Florida and Ohio according to the RCP average. If he wins all the Romney states, plus these 2 states and Iowa where he's been ahead in most of the recent polls, that puts him at 259 electoral votes. If he wins the 1 vote in Maine where he is way ahead, that puts him at 260, and he then needs a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada (where he's been polling well), or has to win Pennsylvania or Virginia (or somehow win Wisconsin or Michigan). It's still an uphill climb, but definitely more realistic than just a few weeks ago.

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Lol. Idiot. Wish we had more people like her.

 

 

I watched this as it happened, and the Old Trump would have lambasted her. The new one moved on and remained calm. Where was this guy throughout the whole primary season.

 

So, just to be clear, despite being a new Trump, he still went out of his way to lambaste Hillary at someone else's event whose focus was on their own dire water crisis? I think I'm going to go interrupt a blood drive to rant about that guy Steve that's been talking sh#t behind my back. If a guy one step away from the presidency can do it then it should be acceptable for me to do it as well.

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Lol. Idiot. Wish we had more people like her.

 

 

I watched this as it happened, and the Old Trump would have lambasted her. The new one moved on and remained calm. Where was this guy throughout the whole primary season.

 

So, just to be clear, despite being a new Trump, he still went out of his way to lambaste Hillary at someone else's event whose focus was on their own dire water crisis? I think I'm going to go interrupt a blood drive to rant about that guy Steve that's been talking sh#t behind my back. If a guy one step away from the presidency can do it then it should be acceptable for me to do it as well.

 

 

So dramatic...the event lasted for quite some time, and this consumed maybe 2 minutes of his visit.

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Trump has now taken the lead in both Florida and Ohio according to the RCP average. If he wins all the Romney states, plus these 2 states and Iowa where he's been ahead in most of the recent polls, that puts him at 259 electoral votes. If he wins the 1 vote in Maine where he is way ahead, that puts him at 260, and he then needs a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada (where he's been polling well), or has to win Pennsylvania or Virginia (or somehow win Wisconsin or Michigan). It's still an uphill climb, but definitely more realistic than just a few weeks ago.

 

Yep, basically Clinton needs to hold onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin (and keep the others she has a big lead in). If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio then it's gonna get pretty dicey for her.

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Trump has now taken the lead in both Florida and Ohio according to the RCP average. If he wins all the Romney states, plus these 2 states and Iowa where he's been ahead in most of the recent polls, that puts him at 259 electoral votes. If he wins the 1 vote in Maine where he is way ahead, that puts him at 260, and he then needs a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada (where he's been polling well), or has to win Pennsylvania or Virginia (or somehow win Wisconsin or Michigan). It's still an uphill climb, but definitely more realistic than just a few weeks ago.

 

Yep, basically Clinton needs to hold onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin (and keep the others she has a big lead in). If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio then it's gonna get pretty dicey for her.

 

 

Well on top of that, Trump is down only 3 for the rest of Maine, and a Reuters poll out today now has him up in Colorado. Trump definitely has the enthusiasm edge, while Hillary has the Democratic machine that cranked out a lot of votes for Obama.

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Trump has now taken the lead in both Florida and Ohio according to the RCP average. If he wins all the Romney states, plus these 2 states and Iowa where he's been ahead in most of the recent polls, that puts him at 259 electoral votes. If he wins the 1 vote in Maine where he is way ahead, that puts him at 260, and he then needs a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada (where he's been polling well), or has to win Pennsylvania or Virginia (or somehow win Wisconsin or Michigan). It's still an uphill climb, but definitely more realistic than just a few weeks ago.

 

Yep, basically Clinton needs to hold onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin (and keep the others she has a big lead in). If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio then it's gonna get pretty dicey for her.

 

 

Well on top of that, Trump is down only 3 for the rest of Maine, and a Reuters poll out today now has him up in Colorado. Trump definitely has the enthusiasm edge, while Hillary has the Democratic machine that cranked out a lot of votes for Obama.

 

 

The poll I saw was +3 in Maine. But that was a poll of all of Maine (including the part that has the better chance of giving him points).

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Trump has now taken the lead in both Florida and Ohio according to the RCP average. If he wins all the Romney states, plus these 2 states and Iowa where he's been ahead in most of the recent polls, that puts him at 259 electoral votes. If he wins the 1 vote in Maine where he is way ahead, that puts him at 260, and he then needs a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada (where he's been polling well), or has to win Pennsylvania or Virginia (or somehow win Wisconsin or Michigan). It's still an uphill climb, but definitely more realistic than just a few weeks ago.

 

Yep, basically Clinton needs to hold onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin (and keep the others she has a big lead in). If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio then it's gonna get pretty dicey for her.

 

 

 

This is a pretty fair assessment. Those states you listed + Virginia give her a pretty safe firewall of 272 EVs.

 

I understand the polls are tightening now. Clinton's definitely hit a low, between pneumonia and that awful excuse of a forum Lauer conducted last week. She was asked for 15 minutes about emails. Trump lied about the Iraq war (again) and got asked what he was reading.

 

The problem with Trump being such a moron with almost anything politically is that he gets graded on a curve. The bar is so unbelievably low that somehow if he doesn't come out of an event with his foot lodged in his mouth or attacking some vulnerable demographic, it's graded a win for him. He must be pivoting, they say. Maturing as a candidate. Becoming "more presidential."

 

And they're so used to him flubbing stuff it's become old hat. Bribe a major state AG so they don't open an investigation into your fraudulent "university"? Meh. Use other people's charitable donations to buy autographed Tebow helmets and 6 foot paintings of yourself for yourself? That's bad, I guess. Your campaign can't decide if David Duke is a bad guy? Oh. Troubling financial ties to the Kremlin and an affinity for Putin, whom you think is a better leader than our own president?

 

But please, we need to be discussing emails and the Clinton's charity.

 

And, of course, the media loves the horserace.

 

But, alas, elections are not won in mid-September. They're built over the long haul (the WAY TOO LONG haul), and a favorite usually pulls away in late October. A couple areas where Clinton still has an advantage:

 

  • GOTV. Trump doesn't care, he's openly admitted as much. The RNC is running his entire GOTV operation, and theirs isn't in Clinton's league. Trump's running on a shoestring budget-- most of his campaign expenses go to funding his merchandise and reimbursing his own properties for their use. This will show up on election day, but it's impossible to quantify how much.
  • The debates. Trump can put on a good show in the limelight all he wants, but it doesn't fix the fact he fundamentally knows very little about the nuts and bolts of being president. Or parliamentary procedure. Or world affairs. They openly admit as well that he's not studying much of anything for debate prep. There's nowhere to hide on a 1 on 1 debate stage from that. I'm sure his advisors are prepping the best in Clinton attacks as we speak. Hopefully she finds a way to spin those on their head. I'd like to think we're all smart enough to realize when a man who is so fundamentally ignorant and unqualified for the role he is seeking is thrust on a national stage and tries to fake his way through it... but Trump is currently gaining in the polls. So...

 

Plus, I'd imagine they've got some type of October surprise saved up...

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Lol. Idiot. Wish we had more people like her.

 

I watched this as it happened, and the Old Trump would have lambasted her. The new one moved on and remained calm. Where was this guy throughout the whole primary season.

So, just to be clear, despite being a new Trump, he still went out of his way to lambaste Hillary at someone else's event whose focus was on their own dire water crisis? I think I'm going to go interrupt a blood drive to rant about that guy Steve that's been talking sh#t behind my back. If a guy one step away from the presidency can do it then it should be acceptable for me to do it as well.

So dramatic...the event lasted for quite some time, and this consumed maybe 2 minutes of his visit.

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/776424123954266112

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