The General Election

[TGHusker]

538's forecast continues to show Clinton increasing her lead. Has her up to 5% in the polls, and back to nearly 80% to win the presidency. They're starting to get post-Vice President debate results and despite Kaine's loss, Clinton continues to rise.

 

Thanks Knapp for always posting this. No surprise here. I've read polls that range of Hillary having a 6 pt national lead to Trump having a 2 pt lead (today's Rasmussen poll). Do you know how Nate Silver formulates his forecast? Is it a mix of polls or some other method.

[knapplc]

No, no. Who's "we" here, Creighton Duke?

 

Let's get it out in the open.

 

What's your "state"?

Judging by the picture of Nigel Farage in his post, I'd say CD is British.

[Creighton Duke]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq-S8CIU7VA

 

I mean, it is a great song and i like the band. Not as much fun, though, when you have to campaign in the state, though!

[FrankWheeler]

 

'We'?

Don't worry about that. Your own "state" is in play. Time to do your part!

 

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-10-05/donald-trump-could-win-california-popular-vote-and-arguably-risk-losing-its-electors

 

Donald Trump Could Win California Popular Vote

 

 

Are there any polls where Trump has any chance of winning the popular vote in California though?

[Creighton Duke]

 

No, no. Who's "we" here, Creighton Duke?

 

Let's get it out in the open.

 

What's your "state"?

Judging by the picture of Nigel Farage in his post, I'd say CD is British.

 

I appreciate it, knapp...but....my accent isn't that classy. i do my best, though!

[zoogs]

 

No, no. Who's "we" here, Creighton Duke?

 

Let's get it out in the open.

 

What's your "state"?

Judging by the picture of Nigel Farage in his post, I'd say CD is British.

 

Or German, perhaps.

 

The American GOP did not accomplish Brexit. The groups which share those interests -- Trump, Brexit, and the notion that Angela Merkel is somehow destroying Germany -- are something else entirely.

 

It's great to see international Husker fans. Are you quite certain your "state" is voting in the U.S. election this fall, CD?

[Undone]

This is getting confusing.

[Creighton Duke]

 

 

No, no. Who's "we" here, Creighton Duke?

 

Let's get it out in the open.

 

What's your "state"?

Judging by the picture of Nigel Farage in his post, I'd say CD is British.

 

Or German, perhaps.

 

The American GOP did not accomplish Brexit. The groups which share those interests -- Trump, Brexit, and the notion that Angela Merkel is somehow destroying Germany -- are something else entirely.

 

It's great to see international Husker fans. Are you quite certain your "state" is voting in the U.S. election this fall, CD?

 

Why would my state not be voting? i'm knocking on doors to help the cause; are you doing anything similar?

 

..and btw, the "American GOP" as you put it, is nonsense. I have ZERO allegiance to it.

[Danny Bateman]

 

538's forecast continues to show Clinton increasing her lead. Has her up to 5% in the polls, and back to nearly 80% to win the presidency. They're starting to get post-Vice President debate results and despite Kaine's loss, Clinton continues to rise.

 

Thanks Knapp for always posting this. No surprise here. I've read polls that range of Hillary having a 6 pt national lead to Trump having a 2 pt lead (today's Rasmussen poll). Do you know how Nate Silver formulates his forecast? Is it a mix of polls or some other method.

 

 

They have three different forecast models: Polls-plus, Polls-only, and Now-cast.

 

Now-cast is the most reactive of the three. It weights most recent polls most heavily and is quickest to shift percentages as new polls roll out. For example, Red said that AZ is the lightest of blues in the Now-cast at the moment. That's because a new Emerson poll came out today for AZ that had her up 2, and they adjusted it to a +4 Clinton lead.

 

Now-cast just tries to explain what would happen if the election was held today. Since polls can shift quickly, so can the Now-cast.

 

Polls-only is their traditional model that analyzes just the polling. It is slower to adapt than Now-cast, but follows long-term trends better instead of short-term ones.

 

Polls-plus analyzes the polling, as well as several other factors that could affect the outcome of the election (incumbency effect if your party already holds the White House, economic indicators, whether we're at war, Presidential approval/are we on the right track ratings, etc).

 

Here's a LOT more reading if you're interested in their full explanation.

[Red Five]

 

538's forecast continues to show Clinton increasing her lead. Has her up to 5% in the polls, and back to nearly 80% to win the presidency. They're starting to get post-Vice President debate results and despite Kaine's loss, Clinton continues to rise.

 

Thanks Knapp for always posting this. No surprise here. I've read polls that range of Hillary having a 6 pt national lead to Trump having a 2 pt lead (today's Rasmussen poll). Do you know how Nate Silver formulates his forecast? Is it a mix of polls or some other method.

 

 

A lot to digest, but here is his explainer:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

[zoogs]

..and btw, the "American GOP" as you put it, is nonsense. I have ZERO allegiance to it.

That is abundantly clear. Where does your allegiance lie, then?

 

To get back to your disingenuous suggestion about California: Clinton is leading there, by something like 20 points. Corner cases aside, this is not a state where she is about to lose the popular vote. Among all states, it's probably one of the most solidly so for Clinton.

 

What state are you in, these days?

 

[TGHusker]

 

 

538's forecast continues to show Clinton increasing her lead. Has her up to 5% in the polls, and back to nearly 80% to win the presidency. They're starting to get post-Vice President debate results and despite Kaine's loss, Clinton continues to rise.

 

Thanks Knapp for always posting this. No surprise here. I've read polls that range of Hillary having a 6 pt national lead to Trump having a 2 pt lead (today's Rasmussen poll). Do you know how Nate Silver formulates his forecast? Is it a mix of polls or some other method.

 

 

A lot to digest, but here is his explainer:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

 

Hey thanks Red. I thought his was pretty good: State polls > national polls. All versions of our models gain more information from state polls than from national polls.

 

I also like the page that rates the various polls. I see the Rasmussen National Poll, which I just quoted, is rated a C+ but the

Monmouth University poll which is often sited, is a A+. I see now why Knapp posts this poll. The process seems very detailed and exacting.

[knapplc]

Nate Silver has been excellent at projecting elections.

 

He is the first to admit, however, that he was dead wrong about Trump's chances very early in the election cycle.

[Creighton Duke]

 

..and btw, the "American GOP" as you put it, is nonsense. I have ZERO allegiance to it.

That is abundantly clear. Where does your allegiance lie, then?

 

To get back to your disingenuous suggestion about California: Clinton is leading there, by something like 20 points. Corner cases aside, this is not a state where she is about to lose the popular vote. Among all states, it's probably one of the most solidly so for Clinton.

 

What state are you in, these days?

 

 

Allegiances? i call them as i see them, as all people should.

 

And, that's great that your state is apparently so safe. I guess it is convenient to live in a place where you don't have to do any work to get the result that you want. Seriously!

 

I'd prefer not to tell you where i live. Continually asking is a bit ...weird (but I don't think you are, you're a great Mod).

[Creighton Duke]

Nate Silver has been excellent at projecting elections.

 

He is the first to admit, however, that he was dead wrong about Trump's chances very early in the election cycle.

Thanks, knapp. Always good at calling it fair on both sides.