The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[Moiraine]

1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

NICE

 

 

 

 

 

A House candidate got sprayed.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Frott Scost said:

I mean wtf is wrong with people. Youve heard for months that trumps post master has been attempting to make usps a mess. Why would you chance it instead of just taking it to an election office drop box?

 

 

I'm sure a lot of people who can, have chosen another option other than mail, but some people have no other option. There's nothing wrong with them.

[FrantzHardySwag]

4 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

 

A House candidate got sprayed.

 

 

 

Pepper spraying veterans to own the libs. 

[Moiraine]

I'm not worried about Trump legitimately winning the election. Unfortunately, legitimately is the key word.

 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

 

 

What if polls are as wrong as 2016? Biden still wins

State polling averages for Clinton pre-election and her final margin in that state. Current state polling averages for Biden, and what the margin would be if the 2016 errors were repeated

 

	DEMOCRATS’ POLLING LEAD OR DEFICIT
	CLINTON 2016		BIDEN 2020
STATE	POLLING AVERAGE	FINAL MARGIN	POLLING AVERAGE	WITH THE 2016 ERROR …
Arizona	-2.3	-3.5	+3.1	+1.9
Colorado	+3.8	+4.9	+13.8	+14.9
Florida	+0.5	-1.2	+2.1	+0.4
Georgia	-4.0	-5.1	+1.6	+0.5
Iowa	-3.4	-9.4	+0.1	-5.9
Maine	+6.9	-3.0	+13.8	+3.9
ME-2	-0.4	-10.3	+2.6	-7.3
Michigan	+4.0	-0.2	+8.8	+4.6
Minnesota	+5.9	+1.5	+8.9	+4.5
NE-2	-0.7	-2.2	+6.2	+4.7
Nevada	+0.7	+2.4	+5.8	+7.5
New Hampshire	+3.4	+0.4	+11.1	+8.1
New Mexico	+5.3	+8.2	+11.0	+13.9
North Carolina	+0.7	-3.7	+2.4	-2.0
Ohio	-2.0	-8.1	-0.9	-7.0
Pennsylvania	+3.7	-0.7	+5.1	+0.7
Texas	-8.5	-9.0	-1.0	-1.5
Virginia	+5.4	+5.3	+11.4	+11.3
Wisconsin	+5.4	-0.8	+8.6	+2.4

SOURCE: POLLS

 

Takeaway? Joe Biden would win. In fact, he’d win 335 electoral votes, including those in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. A lot of these wins would be close — he’d win by around 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, by and less than 1 point in Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, so he’d have to sweat a bit, but he’d win.

 

Meanwhile, although there are a lot of uncertainties this year that our model tries to account for — for instance, whether pollsters are correctly blending the early vote with the Election Day vote — there are also other things that could make a big polling error less likely. For instance, the polls have been very stable so far in the race, and the large number of people who have already voted makes a last-minute shift even less likely. There are also few undecided voters: Joe Biden is polling at above 50 percent in all states that Clinton won except Nevada, plus he clears that line Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (albeit just barely; he’s at 50.1 percent there) and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Those are enough to give him 273 electoral votes.

[Ratt Mhule]

21 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

 

A House candidate got sprayed.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sure a lot of people who can, have chosen another option other than mail, but some people have no other option. There's nothing wrong with them.

Yeah i should have states that better Im not mad at the people. Im mad bc I know the republicans will try and do whatever they can to cheat and its not worth the risk of leaving it in the hands of the usps. They already filed a court appeal in a democratic part of TX to get 100,000 votes dismissed bc ppl i guess voted from their cars which was allowed

[Moiraine]

Biden got a boost from polling today.

 

He's now up 3.4% in battlegrounds with 5.2% undecided.

Clinton was up 1.3% in battlegrounds with 10.5% undecided.

[knapplc]

 

[DevoHusker]

9 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Hopefully, about 70%, for Biden.

It must be concisive.

[Moiraine]

40 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

Hopefully, about 70%, for Biden.

It must be concisive.

 

 

 

I think it's very important Biden wins Florida. Not because he needs Florida to get to 270 but because Florida's results will be known early, unlike PA and some other important states. (Unless Florida is so close we have a 2000 situation). If Biden wins Florida by 2 points or so and they can call it on Tuesday or Wednesday, it would hopefully dissuade the GOP from going on all in on the craziness Trump is going to attempt.

[DevoHusker]

7 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

 

I think it's very important Biden wins Florida. Not because he needs Florida to get to 270 but because Florida's results will be known early, unlike PA and some other important states. (Unless Florida is so close we have a 2000 situation). If Biden wins Florida by 2 points or so and they can call it on Tuesday or Wednesday, it would hopefully dissuade the GOP from going on all in on the craziness Trump is going to attempt.

100%

[commando]

these guys really know how to troll trumpy

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

The state of play right now. Team Trump is terrified of... counting votes.

 

Makes you wonder why? After all, Trump is confident New York and California will be competitive this year.

 

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

48 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

The state of play right now. Team Trump is terrified of... counting votes.

 

Makes you wonder why? After all, Trump is confident New York and California will be competitive this year.

 

 

God forbid we count all the votes!  I really hope most republicans out there see that not counting votes is a bit of an issue...

[Ratt Mhule]

Did the interviewer call him out on a lie? Oh, he didnt? Wtf, mainstream media in this country is the absolute worst and if Trump steals the election and our democracy is no more, media will be as responsible as any entity in the country. 

[Moiraine]

1 minute ago, Frott Scost said:

Did the interviewer call him out on a lie? Oh, he didnt? Wtf, mainstream media in this country is the absolute worst and if Trump steals the election and our democracy is no more, media will be as responsible as any entity in the country. 

 

 

They shouldn't have Jason Miller on for interviews, imo.

[Danny Bateman]

@ZRod Think this is a strong closing message here?