4skers89 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, hskrfan4life said: So are we or aren't we going to a bowl.... It’s in the thread title, we have a 50% chance of going to a bowl if we win Friday. Quote Link to comment
The Dude Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 On 10/25/2018 at 12:30 AM, Moiraine said: Scoff all you want. (Edit: What I meant is scoff to yourself). I find this stuff fun. I will update this every week until Nebraska is eliminated from bowl eligibility. There are 39 bowls (including the quarterfinals) for 78 teams. As of Oct. 20 there are 81 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. 28 of the 81 are bowl eligible now. 23 are 1 win away. As of Oct. 25 there are 83 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. 29 of the 83 are bowl eligible now. 23 are 1 win away. As of Oct. 27 there are 92 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. 37 of the 92 are bowl eligible now. 25 are 1 win away. If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible: 42 of the 92 are bowl eligible now. 24 are 1 win away. As of Nov. 3 there are 97 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. 48 of the 97 are bowl eligible now. 29 are 1 win away. If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible: 52 of the 97 are bowl eligible now. 29 are 1 win away. As of Nov. 10 there are 90 teams that need between 0 and 1 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible: 66 of the 90 are bowl eligible now. 24 are 1 win away. This didn't age well. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Dude said: This didn't age well. It aged just fine, like I said it would. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, cheekygeek said: There is a scenario in which Nebraska still gets a bowl invite with a win over Iowa (so technically we are still alive) but the odds are incredibly against it happening. First, 71 teams are currently bowl eligible. The following 4 teams currently have 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. So we must root for ALL OF THEM to win their final games and all become bowl eligible (bringing the total teams bowl eligible to 75). Vanderbilt must beat Tennesee and Kansas State must beat Iowa State and Minnesota must beat Wisconsin and Maryland must beat Penn State. In addition, Air Force and Illinois are ahead of us in APR and currently at 4 games, so we would need: Air Force to LOSE to Colorado State AND Illinois to LOSE to Northwestern Already looking dim? You ain't seen nothing yet. THEN, (If all of the above happens) there are just 3 bowl spots remaining, Nebraska would need no more than two of the following 17 teams to win their final games: American (2): SMU, Tulane ACC (2): Florida State, Wake Forest Big Ten (2): Indiana, Purdue Big 12 (3): Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech C-USA (2): Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss MAC (1): Miami (OH) MWC (1): Wyoming Pac-12: (3): Arizona, Colorado, USC Sun Belt (1): Coastal Carolina Your logic on the 5-win teams ahead of us in APR needing to win is... illogical. They are already ahead of us. Whether they get to 6 wins or not has no effect on us. Also, there are at least 2 head to head match ups in your final list. I thought there were 3 which is what made it 100% impossible. Quote Link to comment
cheekygeek Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Moiraine said: Your logic on the 5-win teams ahead of us in APR needing to win is... illogical. They are already ahead of us. Whether they get to 6 wins or not has no effect on us. Also, there are at least 2 head to head match ups in your final list. I thought there were 3 which is what made it 100% impossible. My logic on the 5 win teams ahead of us needing to win is not illogical. We need to be the top APR team with 5 wins when the smoke clears. I have outlined the ONLY scenario in which a single 5 win team is needed to fill the last remaining bowl game (which doesn't happen every year) and it requires all of them to get to 6 wins (leaving us the top APR team with 5 wins). There LIKELY aren't going to be ANY 5 win teams in bowls this year, but with my scenario there would possibly be one (but SOOOOOOO improbable). The other head to head matchup you may have been thinking of is Vandy vs Tennessee (winner is bowl eligible) but if Tennessee wins then VANDY (not Nebraska) would the the top APR 5 win team getting the final spot (assuming all other Nebraska criteria were met... which ain't gonna happen either). We gotta have Vandy win that matchup, becoming bowl eligible and knocking Tennessee out of it (below our APR with 5 wins). Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, cheekygeek said: My logic on the 5 win teams ahead of us needing to win is not illogical. We need to be the top APR team with 5 wins when the smoke clears. Only with them winning I have outlined the ONLY scenario in which a single 5 win team is needed to fill the last remaining bowl game (which doesn't happen every year). There LIKELY aren't going to be ANY 5 win teams in bowls this year, but with my scenario there would possibly be one (but SOOOOOOO improbable). You’re not getting it. We need a bowl spot to be available. Period. The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible. It does not matter now if they get a 6th. It won’t change the # of spots available. A team ranked 30th in APR with 5 wins can go to a bowl game even if there are 10 teams ahead of them with 5 wins if the spots are available. You don’t have to be the #1 5 win team to go. Multiple 5 win teams can go if the spots aren’t filled. Win or lose, those teams are ahead of us in bowl eligibility. Quote Link to comment
RedSavage Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, cheekygeek said: There is a scenario in which Nebraska still gets a bowl invite with a win over Iowa (so technically we are still alive) but the odds are incredibly against it happening. First, 71 teams are currently bowl eligible. The following 4 teams currently have 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. So we must root for ALL OF THEM to win their final games and all become bowl eligible (bringing the total teams bowl eligible to 75). Vanderbilt must beat Tennesee and Kansas State must beat Iowa State and Minnesota must beat Wisconsin and Maryland must beat Penn State. In addition, Air Force and Illinois are ahead of us in APR and currently at 4 games, so we would need: Air Force to LOSE to Colorado State AND Illinois to LOSE to Northwestern Already looking dim? You ain't seen nothing yet. Indiana plays Purdue (winner becomes bowl eligible) and Baylor plays Texas Tech (winner becomes bowl eligible) leaving ONE spot open, so Nebraska would need ALL OF THE following 13 teams to LOSE their final games: American (2): SMU, Tulane ACC (2): Florida State, Wake Forest Big 12 (1): TCU, C-USA (2): Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss MAC (1): Miami (OH) MWC (1): Wyoming Pac-12: (3): Arizona, Colorado, USC Sun Belt (1): Coastal Carolina 4 Quote Link to comment
cheekygeek Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Moiraine said: You’re not getting it. We need a bowl spot to be available. Period. The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible. It does not matter now if they get a 6th. It won’t change the # of spots available. A team ranked 30th in APR with 5 wins can go to a bowl game even if there are 10 teams ahead of them with 5 wins if the spots are available. You don’t have to be the #1 5 win team to go. Multiple 5 win teams can go if the spots aren’t filled. Win or lose, those teams are ahead of us in bowl eligibility. I can't explain it any better than I have and if you can't see it I can't help you. This part of your argument is wrong: "The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible." It is irrelevant, except for the fact that Nebraska is not yet MATHEMATICALLY eliminated, until just ONE of the things I said has to happen doesn't happen. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 minute ago, cheekygeek said: I can't explain it any better than I have and if you can't see it I can't help you. The reason you can’t explain it is you’re wrong, and it’s pretty basic math. 3 Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, knapplc said: It’s not really a fight when one person doesn’t understand that 71+4 = 75 regardless of how the 4 gets there. Quote Link to comment
StPaulHusker Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just beat Iowa. That's all I care about at this point. Just beat Iowa. That's all I care about at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment
Waldo Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 If my math is correct, we have like a 1:525,000 chance in making a bowl game. Quote Link to comment
Ulty Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Waldo said: If my math is correct, we have like a 1:525,000 chance in making a bowl game. 2 Quote Link to comment
mnhusker Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 What about 6 win teams that decide not to go a a bowl .......... it could happen. Quote Link to comment
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