The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[Archy1221]

 

[teachercd]

6 hours ago, RedDenver said:

It's all about exposure for their crackpot conspiracies or the grift with these loons. For RFKj, I think it's about the exposure for his insane claims.

Yeah, I can see that BUT, he is a Kennedy, like, it is not like he is Bob Schemckie.

 

So that doesn't really make sense UNLESS he is nuts, which maybe that is the case.

[BigRedBuster]

 

Yeah…because Dems are the ones that love him. 
 

 

 

[teachercd]

22 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Yeah…because Dems are the ones that love him. 
 

 

 

I mean, none of the K's have been D's or R's, they have always been about themselves only.  

 

But this is still so odd to me.  It is not like he is a young guy building a new base of supporters. 

[Crusader Husker]

Well heck, things just got interesting.

[RedDenver]

21 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

Well heck, things just got interesting.

He won't get even 1% of the vote.

[Crusader Husker]

1 minute ago, RedDenver said:

He won't get even 1% of the vote.

Not about the vote right now.  Just circus it could become.  At least in the short term.

[RedDenver]

19 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

Not about the vote right now.  Just circus it could become.  At least in the short term.

Oh, yeah. You are correct, sir!

[Lorewarn]

On 9/29/2023 at 10:12 PM, teachercd said:

Why run as an I?  He knows he won't win, is he trying to get things going to run in 28?  That seems odd.

 

 

Have you watched Succession? If not, one of the siblings decides to run for President and has a very serious and committed relationship to the idea just trying to poll at 1%. It's all about the brand and the ego.

[TGHusker]

GOP voters:  This is your leading candidate.  A vote for Trump is a vote for a demagogue and a vote against American values.    

Article quoted in part below. 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html

 

Quote

 

Kelly set the record straight with on-the-record confirmation of a number of damning stories about statements Trump made behind closed doors attacking US service members and veterans, listing a number of objectionable comments Kelly witnessed Trump make firsthand.

“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.

“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.

“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.”

In the statement, Kelly is confirming, on the record, a number of details in a 2020 story in The Atlantic by editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg, including Trump turning to Kelly on Memorial Day 2017, as they stood among those killed in Afghanistan and Iraq in Section 60 at Arlington National Cemetery, and saying, “I don’t get it. What was in it for them?”

 

 

[teachercd]

16 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

GOP voters:  This is your leading candidate.  A vote for Trump is a vote for a demagogue and a vote against American values.    

Article quoted in part below. 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html

 

 

Trump is losing support by the second.  What you will see/hear now is people claiming that they are voting for him, because they have dug in their heels for so long, but in the end, they will just not vote at all or vote for some 3rd party dude.

 

 

[TGHusker]

2 hours ago, teachercd said:

not vote at all or vote for some 3rd party dude

Probably out RKjr is counting on. 

[teachercd]

7 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Probably out RKjr is counting on. 

Maybe?  But, does he swing enough people to actually get elected?  No chance of that.  I don't think D's really even think of him as a "Kennedy" you know?

[TGHusker]

6 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Maybe?  But, does he swing enough people to actually get elected?  No chance of that.  I don't think D's really even think of him as a "Kennedy" you know?

No - he won't swing enough votes and I understand why the Dems don't want to claim him.  He's on the fringe edge of nutcase.  

[TGHusker]

OP-Ed makes a case that Trump and Biden need each other. If one falls, the other will follow. 

 

The heart of the article copied below. 

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4235818-the-trump-collapse-is-coming-and-hes-taking-biden-down-with-him/

Quote

With Trump’s first criminal trial due to start March 4 and his second due in May (and no movement by either judge to change dates), it seems logical to expect a verdict in the first trial by mid-May. The classified documents charges are more straightforward and certainly look like a slam-dunk. According to CBS News reporting, seven Espionage Act cases since 2017 resulted in guilty verdicts (just one trial) and the minimum sentence was 18 months. Note that Trump is also facing conspiracy charges. 

With two federal trials set, the Georgia trial will have to be either shoehorned before the March federal trial (with difficulty) or start after the May trial. That means Trump could head to the July Republican convention out on bail with two sets of felony convictions, two prison sentences and headed to another felony trial to face a raft of plea-bargained witnesses for the prosecution. And forget about Alvin Bragg and his weak indictment — Bragg can’t get out of the way fast enough. 

Where would Trump be in the polls then? And what would his mental state be? According to recent polling, 57 percent would not vote for Trump if convicted of a felony vs. 26 percent who would. Would the prospect of nominating an increasingly unhinged Trump trailing in the polls to Biden and facing even more legal trouble finally knock the 2024 front-runner out?  

Given the serial incompetence of the Republican Party over the past two years, that’s still a tossup. But let’s say that Trump’s support crumbles enough that, staring at defeat, he makes a deal for Tim Scott to take his place (stipulating Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley cannot be on the ticket). And that would leave the Democrats with a big problem.  

Democrats’ gamble comes up snake eyes 

Biden and Trump need each other. At an average net unfavorable of negative 16 percent, Trump is only polling well due to Biden’s age and uneven (to put it charitably) administration. Conversely, only the extreme level of hatred for Trump enthuses the Democratic base. These are two candidates who only survive as “not the other guy.” 

But if “the other guy” is out of the picture, everything is likely to change.  

Currently Biden’s polling is about as bad as it gets. The “right direction/wrong track” polling averages negative 44 percent (23 percent right track, 67 percent wrong direction). Biden is net 13-points unfavorable. Biden and Trump have been circling around each other on the ballot test over the past two years, with Biden trailing in the RealClearPolitics average by 1.3 percent. In spite of Trump’s indictments and over-the-top behavior, the incumbent has only registered over 50 percent in just one outlier poll in two years (curious there no media hyperventilating over that poll). 

A late switch to Tim Scott (or another top contender) would completely scramble Democratic calculations. Facing a more energetic and articulate candidate – not to mention an ethnic minority — is not what the Democrats want to see.  

While they will surely try to wrap Trump around any Republican replacement, it’s just not the same. Plus, any Republican replacement for Trump would likely give that candidate a “relief rally” in the polls. A candidate like Scott could come out of Milwaukee with a 15-point lead on Biden. Even with poor name ID, the South Carolina senator tops Biden in recent polling and is one of the few American politicians net favorable. 

There is little question that, faced with anyone but Trump, forces in the Democratic Party would want to nominate anyone but Biden — and they would have a month to do it. The scramble would be the biggest nominating spectacle since the 103-ballot 1924 Democratic convention — with potentially the same general election result. Would Biden step aside or fight? Imagine an attempted palace coup by VP Kamala Harris or a civil war between Harris and California’s Gavin Newsom. 

The Republican Party has been a directionless mess during the Biden administration, fraught with terrible leadership and a toxic Trump at the top of the nominating contest. Yet, the GOP could still manage to win big in 2024 through the stumbling of the Democrats and dumb luck.