The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

6 hours ago, teachercd said:

I agree, it would take something massive for Joe to not win.  

 

Maybe 6 dollar a gallon gas??

Sorry, I  wasn't clear in my post. I meant the only way that poll would be accurate - R+10 - we'd have to be in a massive recession. 

 

Otherwise I think the chances of Biden winning reelection isn't as high as most people seem to think. Maybe only a little higher then 50%.

 

There are a lot of reasons for this, but it's mostly because of an electoral college bias that massively favors Republican candidates even if they're massively unpopular. It's also because only a handful of swing states matter, with all 5 swing being more Republican than the country.

[teachercd]

6 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Sorry, I  wasn't clear in my post. I meant the only way that poll would be accurate - R+10 - we'd have to be in a massive recession. 

 

Otherwise I think the chances of Biden winning reelection isn't as high as most people seem to think. Maybe only a little higher then 50%.

 

There are a lot of reasons for this, but it's mostly because of an electoral college bias that massively favors Republican candidates even if they're massively unpopular. It's also because only a handful of swing states matter, with all 5 swing being more Republican than the country.

Ahhh, yeah, I see what you are saying.

 

 

[Archy1221]

7 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

There are a lot of reasons for this, but it's mostly because of an electoral college bias that massively favors Republican candidates even if they're massively unpopular. It's also because only a handful of swing states matter, with all 5 swing being more Republican than the country.

Which 5 states do you refer to? 

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Which 5 states do you refer to? 

Im referring to:

Nevada - R+1

Arizona - R+2

Wisconsin - R+2

Pennsylvania - R+2

Georgia - R+3

 

Those are the swing states in 2024 and they are all slightly more Republican than the country on average. Any political environment that is D+2 or less - probably about where the country is - means an extremely competitive election. I'd give a slight edge to Democrats simply because they're performing extraordinary well in special elections across the country, which is why I think Biden is a ~55% favorite to win.

 

There are other states both parties could win if either side has a big year. It's possible that Rs win Michigan or Ds win North Carolina. But most states aren't going to be competitive in the Electoral College. 

[nic]

Trump with a 9 point lead over Biden? Seems off. 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

21 minutes ago, nic said:

Trump with a 9 point lead over Biden? Seems off. 

 

We'll have to see if polls keep trending that way or not. The results of nearly all special elections - no matter the state that holds them - shows robust electoral support for Democrats, who have over performed the fundamentals in nearly every special election.

 

The actual political environment is somewhere between polls showing a big lead for Trump and Democrat performances in special elections.

[knapplc]

This is your candidate, Republicans.

 

 

 

[commando]

pretty sure i saw 3 dead whales by the lincoln windmills.

[teachercd]

Wait, am I supposed to feel bad for the whales?  

 

I am confused.  

[TGHusker]

Haley now 2nd in NH.  DeSantis falling like a rock.  Christie has reached a ceiling.   

 

 

https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-nikki-haley-surging-ahead-ron-desantis-donald-trump-maintains-his-frontrunner-status-new-hampshire-republican-presidential-primary

Quote

 

A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds former president Donald Trump leading his closest challengers by a 3-1 margin among New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary likely voters.  45% of respondents express their preference for Trump on the ballot test, a 30-point lead over his closest challenger, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. 

In the wake of the first Republican presidential candidate debate, Haley has moved into second place behind Trump with 15% support.  She is now the leading alternative to Trump, besting former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie on the ballot test among respondents who have an unfavorable impression of the former president, 32%-29%.  She carries a 37-point net positive favorability (65%-28%), second only to South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (+51%), suggesting she has room to grow her support.  

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen his support decline by 18 points since March and now trails Haley with 11%, slightly ahead of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (10%). Just 11% of respondents with a favorable opinion of Trump select DeSantis on the ballot test, along with 12% that have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, suggesting that he doesn’t appeal to either group strongly enough to have maintained his early status as Trump’s strongest challenger.  

Former Governor Chris Christie has succeeded in branding himself as the harshest critic of Trump, but at a cost.  Although he has picked up the support of 29% of respondents who have an unfavorable impression of Trump, he has virtually no support from respondents who view Trump favorably.  His 46-point net negative favorability (25%-71%) will likely put a hard ceiling on his potential growth.  

 

 

[TGHusker]

18 hours ago, knapplc said:

This is your candidate, Republicans.

 

 

 

Speaking of a little 'batty'.   Kettle calling the pot black there.  

[Archy1221]

15 hours ago, teachercd said:

Wait, am I supposed to feel bad for the whales?  

 

I am confused.  

I don’t know man, when I grew up it was all about save the whales…..now it likes “f#&% the whales, we got solar energy to worry about” 

[BigRedBuster]

This is on purpose to fire up the 2A crowd. 
 

 

 

[teachercd]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/democratic-nomination/

 

Betting odds starting to see a little push for Obama.  

 

Is it crazy, just as a long shot wager, to put some coin down on Mrs. Obama?