The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[Dr. Strangelove]

On 2/18/2024 at 5:49 PM, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying but you saying it both ways.

 

1.  People don't change their minds

2.  People do change their minds

 

Which is it?  Do people change their minds or don't they?  How about we start with that simple question and then we can go from there.

 

So we have from you that the vast majority do not change their mind and vote the same way they did the time before.

 

Then you have that the few that do change their mind, are the ones that are stupid.  But, Joe got more votes than any other president ever, which means millions of people "changed their mind" because Hillary did NOT get that many votes, not even close...so were those 20 million mind-changers, that voted for Joe, also stupid and uninformed?  

As a whole, voters don't change their minds. They vote the same way each election. NOTE: That doesn't mean not a single person doesn't change their minds; just that not enough of them do for it to matter when it determines who wins a state's electoral college votes.

 

The reason Joe got more voters than Hillary in 2016 isn't because he changed the minds of millions of 2016 Trump voters. What he did do was get people to vote for him who did not vote for any candidate in 2020. The pandemic and a chaotic time for America allowed him to barely win because voters were highly engaged and millions of people who didn't vote in 2016 voted in 2020.

 

The reason Trump can win in 2024 without changing any minds is because his base of support is extremely loyal. He's very likely to get similar passionate turnout that he got in 2020. Biden can lose in 2024 because the base that carried him to victory may decide to stay home, that politics are exhausting, or that they are so uninterested in either candidate that they give up. In that scenario, not a single voter has to change their vote in order for Trump to win.

 

Currently, Trump is winning by ~2%. Biden needs to change his poll numbers to be up by ~5% to win. He needs AT LEAST to be up by ~3% on election day to have a prayer of winning. Even with improving attitudes towards the economy, swinging national polls by 7% is going to be a difficult task. 

[TGHusker]

17 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Ronny is a mini Trump.  This doesn't help the Republican party move away from that image.

Agree.  Very hard to wash the trump stain off.   Just show a video of DeSantis looking around during that first debate to see if he should raise his hand in supporting a convicted felon if Trump wins the nomination.  That was such a pitiful sight.  

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

On 2/18/2024 at 8:46 PM, teachercd said:

It won't be close. 

I remember you also saying that Donald Trump might not win the Republican nomination as recently as like a month ago, despite it being glaringly obvious that he's by far the most popular candidate for Republicans. 

 

You just seem to be convinced that the personal experiences you have with people and extrapolating those experiences out to the rest of America means that Biden is going to win easily.

 

I'm just trying to tell you that this is not at all true. Biden is currently in "loses the electoral college in a blowout" territory. Right now, improving sentiment in the public means he's trending from "loses in electoral college blowout" and trending towards " decisive popular vote victory but narrowly loses electoral college" ala Hillary in 2016. That doesn't mean he can't win, but that he's a slight underdog based on current trends.

[teachercd]

1 minute ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I remember you also saying that Donald Trump might not win the Republican nomination as recently as like a month ago, despite it being glaringly obvious that he's by far the most popular candidate for Republicans. 

 

You just seem to be convinced that the personal experiences you have with people and extrapolating those experiences out to the rest of America means that Biden is going to win easily.

 

I'm just trying to tell you that this is not at all true. Biden is currently in "loses the electoral college in a blowout" territory. Right now, improving sentiment in the public means he's trending from "loses in electoral college blowout" and trending towards " decisive popular vote victory but narrowly loses electoral college" ala Hillary in 2016. That doesn't mean he can't win, but that he's a slight underdog based on current trends.

I get what you are saying and honestly you tend to always reply in the most polite ways, which I appreciate it.  I wish I did a better job at that.

 

And I did say that about trump not winning the R nominee AND while it sure looks like I was wrong (again) it still is not over!

 

As far as the bolded goes, personal experiences when seen over and over, turn into societal experiences and I do think we are headed in that direction.  As even the gambling sites are starting to change their odds.  

[Archy1221]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

On 2/18/2024 at 5:49 PM, teachercd said:

As a whole, voters don't change their minds. They vote the same way each election. NOTE: That doesn't mean not a single person doesn't change their minds; just that not enough of them do for it to matter when it determines who wins a state's electoral college votes.

From 1988-2012 Iowa voted for R President just one time.   This election will make three straight times.  
Colorado voted R 14/16 times since Eisenhower, till 2008 then it’s been 4 straight D tickets.  
Virginia was tried and true Red till 2008 and now it’s true Blue since.  
 

Florida would waffle back and forth a bit with a R lean on the overall amount of times.  
 

Just a few I checked out to prove this thesis of yours to be incorrect.  

[Lorewarn]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

From 1988-2012 Iowa voted for R President just one time.   This election will make three straight times.  
Colorado voted R 14/16 times since Eisenhower, till 2008 then it’s been 4 straight D tickets.  
Virginia was tried and true Red till 2008 and now it’s true Blue since.  
 

Florida would waffle back and forth a bit with a R lean on the overall amount of times.  
 

Just a few I checked out to prove this thesis of yours to be incorrect.  

 

 

Pretty limited analysis based off a causal implication that the state's results changing were the byproduct of voters changing minds rather than a host of other variable factors.

[Archy1221]

1 minute ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Pretty limited analysis based off a causal implication that the state's results changing were the byproduct of voters changing minds rather than a host of other variable factors.

What are you talking about!?!????   It took like 5 minutes to look that stuff up.  I thought it was a pretty robust analysis. 

[TGHusker]

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

As someone said:  Don't know what this is about yet, but as they say, when you see a turtle on a fence post.... it didn't get there by accident.

[Crusader Husker]

Isn't this the Russian thread??

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

What are you talking about!?!????   It took like 5 minutes to look that stuff up.  I thought it was a pretty robust analysis. 

While that is funny, Lorewarn is correct. States change who they vote for for a variety of factors.

 

Demographic shifts, education polarization, and other factors have far more of an effect on why Iowa and Colorado are no longer swing states than it has to do with voters in those states changing their minds election to election. The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18, or low propensity voters who rarely vote suddenly get involved in politics (Trump is excellent at this).

 

1 hour ago, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying and honestly you tend to always reply in the most polite ways, which I appreciate it.  I wish I did a better job at that.

 

And I did say that about trump not winning the R nominee AND while it sure looks like I was wrong (again) it still is not over!

 

As far as the bolded goes, personal experiences when seen over and over, turn into societal experiences and I do think we are headed in that direction.  As even the gambling sites are starting to change their odds.  

I think the election this year is high variable and external factors - mainly Donald Trump's legal issues - make this election unique.

 

My opinion would be, if Donald Trump's legal woes are going to harm his electoral prospects, I think we would be seeing that in the polls already. Right now, I don't think Trump voters really care. They're going to passionately vote for him. Biden voters (and this is a problem with the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party) are much less enthusiastic about 2024 than they were in 2020. He's going to have to hope that enthusiasm after the Dobbs decision, that PTSD from the moronic Trump Presidency, and other factors can motivate his voters to show up once again in 2024. I have my doubts that the Biden base is as motivated as the Trump base.

 

Of course, they could move to nominate another candidate to help alleviate the enthusiasm problem. But Gavin Newsome is a coastal elite who does not help their chances of winning crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer helps solidify the midwest vote, but nominating a white woman is dicey. Nominating her hurts their prospects among minority groups, their chances of winning in Georgia/Nevada. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg suffer from similar problems, and nominating Michelle Obama is a weird pipe dream. I don't think there's a candidate they can nominate that gives them a better shot at winning than Biden, for all his electoral flaws. 

[teachercd]

6 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

Isn't this the Russian thread??

 

In Mother Russia...thread make you!

[Decked]

8 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

Isn't this the Russian thread??

 

Gulag for you comrade 

[TGHusker]

19 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

Isn't this the Russian thread??

 

I asked @Mavric to move the posts to the presidential thread

 

[Danny Bateman]

22 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Even with improving attitudes towards the economy, swinging national polls by 7% is going to be a difficult task. 

Meh, maybe, maybe not. It’s a binary outcome. One of the two sides wins. So I don’t get too caught up in gaming out different variables or minor factors like third party. I’m sure as s#!t not losing any sleep over a Kennedy failson or some No Labels circlejerk that might impact things on the margins.

 

Since I’m 100% locked in with my vote with no reservations, there are a couple points I hang my hat on that keep me sane these days.

 

One is just that it’s not even March. The primary is still ongoing for both parties, nominally. There’s still so much that will happen yet that will affect public opinion and ultimately voting intention. The average American voter has the attention span of a goldfish. Thus I no more trust a poll for the November election in February than I do a primary poll in May of 2023.

 

The other piece is that Trump hemorrhages support among his soft supporters if he’s convicted of ANYTHING. This one is a bit more conditional, as it requires the very slow burn of our justice system to continue cranking along and ultimately bend toward actual accountability. But if it does his non MAGA supporters are going to head for the exits. Poof, he loses. He simply cannot win with the hardcores alone. Thus I also don’t give a single rip what the hardcore MAGA crowd thinks or does. Once most voters stop daydreaming that this rematch isn’t inevitable, as much as we all don’t want it to be, many of the will realize Trump is the same corrupt, self-serving obnoxious prick he’s always been and they still really dislike him. Coupled with an actual criminal record I think it’s enough to sink him.

 

I actually agree with most of your analysis and generally really enjoy your input anyway, this is merely playing devil’s advocate to find silver linings for anyone who’s too stressed out by all of this.

[Moiraine]

9 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

Meh, maybe, maybe not. It’s a binary outcome. One of the two sides wins. So I don’t get too caught up in gaming out different variables or minor factors like third party. I’m sure as s#!t not losing any sleep over a Kennedy failson or some No Labels circlejerk that might impact things on the margins.

 

Since I’m 100% locked in with my vote with no reservations, there are a couple points I hang my hat on that keep me sane these days.

 

One is just that it’s not even March. The primary is still ongoing for both parties, nominally. There’s still so much that will happen yet that will affect public opinion and ultimately voting intention. The average American voter has the attention span of a goldfish. Thus I no more trust a poll for the November election in February than I do a primary poll in May of 2023.

 

The other piece is that Trump hemorrhages support among his soft supporters if he’s convicted of ANYTHING. This one is a bit more conditional, as it requires the very slow burn of our justice system to continue cranking along and ultimately bend toward actual accountability. But if it does his non MAGA supporters are going to head for the exits. Poor, he loses. He simply cannot win with the hardcores alone. Thus I also don’t give a single rip what the hardcore MAGA crowd thinks or does. Once most voters stop daydreaming that this rematch isn’t inevitable, as much as we all don’t want it to be, many of the will realize Trump is the same corrupt, self-serving obnoxious prick he’s always been and they still really dislike him. Coupled with an actual criminal record I think it’s enough to sink him.

 

I actually agree with most of your analysis and generally really enjoy your input anyway, this is merely playing devil’s advocate to find silver linings for anyone who’s too stressed out by all of this.

 

 

Sorry to try to affect your sanity but this third party candidate isn’t minor. He’s polling at 14% right now. That’s closer to Perot than it is to Nader or Stein.