Does NU have a chance in the B1G West?

[Moiraine]

37 minutes ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

Actually it appears as .4%.  Less than 1%. Or essentially a snowball’s chance on Miami Beach July 4th.

 

Let’s all focus on the game each week.  Our season is flying by and we need to enjoy this time.  Wins are so hard to come by lately let’s just let the Huskers decide for us!  GBR 

 

 

First of all, we can focus on whatever we want to. Especially since we aren’t playing in the game. If I want to think ahead to our Rose Bowl match against Oregon, because we’re the Big Ten champion and the PAC-12 champion Washington is in the playoff, I can do that if I please. And it has no impact on the game. 

 

Second, no. I said “if we win the division.” 0.4% is the chance they are giving of winning the conference, as of right now. 

 

4-5% is the chance of winning the conference (i.e. beating the East winner, probably OSU or UM like I mentioned) if we win the division. The important part is “if we win the division.” This is calculated by:

 

0.084X = 0.004

X =4.76%.

[BigRedBuster]

5 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

This is saying we have a 4-5% chance of beating Ohio State or Michigan if we win the division

 

That’s .4%.  

[Moiraine]

7 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

That’s .4%.  

 

 

That is the percentage today. The important part of my sentence is “if we win the division.” Based on their #s, they think if we win the division, we will then have a 4.76% chance of winning the conference. 

 

Based on where we are today, they think we have a 0.4% chance of winning the conference. 

 

Long story short they think we have very little chance of beating UM or OSU even if we win the division (which I agree with). I’m just doing basic stats to calculate what they think our chance is of winning the conference given that we have won the division.

 

Another calc we can do is 85%X = 8.4%. They think if we win 6 games there is a 9.88% chance we win the division. (Though this one obviously could/would change drastically each week).

[Kayvan]

On 10/25/2023 at 7:41 AM, Undone said:

Our chances keep going down now because of injuries on offense. Having actually won the last two games the odds of course started to go way up, but the latest round of injuries hurt the chances pretty bad.

 

Honestly though, if our defense plays like it did against Northwestern in each remaining game I don't know who is really scoring more than 17-20 points on us. We just can't seem to get away from turnovers, but at least false starts were better.

Hey guys, move it to the math forum, please.

[GSG]

[Mavric]

 

[Packerhuskerfan]

On 10/15/2023 at 12:01 PM, Packerhuskerfan said:

Huskers have too many injuries on offense, spotty QB play, uneven kicking, and a defense that does not create turnovers.  I think we just need to worry about getting to a bowl.

No Big 10 West.

[commando]

time for this thread to die

[BoSolich]

nobody should want to watch another 49-0 loss to michigan and it really does nothing to make us better. i'd much rather just play another evenly matched team in a bowl game and then fill in the gaping holes we have on this roster.

[Undone]

32 minutes ago, BoSolich said:

nobody should want to watch another 49-0 loss to michigan and it really does nothing to make us better.

 

This is total loser talk and also just incorrect.

 

But, we're not going to win the division so it doesn't matter.

[hskrpwr13]

Only the Iowa game was a poor result this week for the Husker's chances. 

[Cornfed]

I mean, we’re still very much in the hunt 

[ColoradoHusk]

3 minutes ago, Cornfed said:

I mean, we’re still very much in the hunt 

We basically just can't be tied with Minnesota at the end of the year.  NU will need wins over Wisconsin and Iowa to be in the hunt, which would give NU tiebreakers over them.  If NU loses to Maryland, it will be tough to win the division at 5-4.

[Moiraine]

19 minutes ago, hskrpwr13 said:

Only the Iowa game was a poor result this week for the Husker's chances. 

 

 

I don’t think we’ll do it, but if we win out we still control our destiny other than needing OSU to beat Minnesota. Same position we were in before today’s game. 

[BoSolich]

1 hour ago, Undone said:

 

This is total loser talk and also just incorrect.

 

But, we're not going to win the division so it doesn't matter.

michigan realistically could have beat us 70-0 if they wanted to