BigRedBuster Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, everybody knows my name said: Explain to me why you wouldn't count a game that they played? Because NMSU has a crummy defense? So does Nebraska. That whole "if you ignore their successes there are only failures" argument has always baffled me. People trot it out all the time, in sports and politics and business. It's no different than when looking at a defense and someone says...well...yeah...but, when they went against really good offenses, they allowed more points. 1 Quote Link to comment
ScottyIce Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 13 hours ago, VectorVictor said: Why this spread? Because Vegas, unlike some of the supposed Nebraska “fans” in other threads, have seen what most of the sane, rational fan base has witnessed—that there has been progress made, that the team is getting better, and they’re getting close to turning the corner. And lest anyone forget...Vegas is in the business of making money. They have zero f***s to give about the feelings of Nebraska fans. They’re using their own eyeballs and making a judgement call. I honestly believe this is the first +1 I have ever given you. 13 hours ago, BoSolich said: minnesota is actually decent though. even if we have improved, there's nothing to suggest we're going to win by 6 points. i feel like it should be a pick'em game at best. Idk, it sure felt like NW was a decent team too, and for a few moments on Saturday I was wondering if we were going to beat them by 20+ Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 43 minutes ago, everybody knows my name said: Explain to me why you wouldn't count a game that they played? Because NMSU has a crummy defense? So does Nebraska. That whole "if you ignore their successes there are only failures" argument has always baffled me. People trot it out all the time, in sports and politics and business. Sometimes you can toss out a few things. Like garbage time stats. Quote Link to comment
everybody knows my name Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Well keep your pecker up, Husker fans. Cause if you don't count the losses, Nebraska is undefeated this season. 3 Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, everybody knows my name said: Well keep your pecker up, Husker fans. Cause if you don't count the losses, Nebraska is undefeated this season. What is a pecker? 2 1 Quote Link to comment
Lonestar_Husker Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 (edited) Gambling is basically an emotional vice for the majority of gamblers. Odds makers pay just as much attention to perceptions as they do stats. Their goal is to get as much money as possible wagered on both sides and collect the juice. If they were confident in their lines, they would not change. As previously mentioned, the sports books(gambling guarantors) do not care what team wins. "Sharps" as they are called, are consistent in that they wager void of any emotion. They pay attention to trends, but are not beholden to them. The guys that set the points look bad if the line moves too much. Most of the line setters are independent contractors and are canned routinely for opening up the House to big losses. The odds makers that set lines that even out the wagers from first publication are basically golden gooses that are very well compensated. This info is gleaned from a golf game. My brother and I were paired up with a former odds maker a couple years ago. He was a trip. It's not often that a complete stranger wants to play a $50 Nassau with me. He had to be a better odds maker than he was a golfer. I bought dinner and drinks that night. Edited October 15, 2018 by Lonestar_Husker Removed humble brag. Quote Link to comment
Xmas32 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lonestar_Husker said: Gambling is basically an emotional vice for the majority of gamblers. Odds makers pay just as much attention to perceptions as they do stats. Their goal is to get as much money as possible wagered on both sides and collect the juice. If they were confident in their lines, they would not change. As previously mentioned, the sports books(gambling guarantors) do not care what team wins. "Sharps" as they are called, are consistent in that they wager void of any emotion. They pay attention to trends, but are not beholden to them. The guys that set the points look bad if the line moves too much. Most of the line setters are independent contractors and are canned routinely for opening up the House to big losses. The odds makers that set lines that even out the wagers from first publication are basically golden gooses that are very well compensated. This info is gleaned from a golf game. My brother and I were paired up with a former odds maker a couple years ago. He was a trip. It's not often that a complete stranger wants to play a $50 Nassau with me. He had to be a better odds maker than he was a golfer. I bought dinner and drinks that night. I both agree and disagree with some points here. On huge events like the Super Bowl you are 100% correct that the goal is to funnel as much money through the book and collect the 10% juice. Sportsbooks are now starting to take more proactive stances on games where they think they know the right side and are willing to lay a line that draws in lopsided action and are willing to play the percentages that they'll come out ahead. Books also know more often than not which side is going to be the public side and will skew the juice/line that way to make people pay a premium. You are also correct that the initial linesmakers are worth their weight in gold. I'm not sure if this is still the case as they've exited the US market but the book at Pinnacle used to be the gold standard and had the sharpest line/juice anywhere and I heard that lots of other books would simply copy Pinny's line moves. Here's a fun article that talks a bit about the line making process. https://www.sportsinsights.com/betting-tools/sportsbook-profit-margins/ As for the NU line, I agree with Severe that it probably ends up around -3. It would take a mountain of one sided money/key injury to move it past that key number. 1 Quote Link to comment
Lonestar_Husker Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Xmas32 said: I both agree and disagree with some points here. On huge events like the Super Bowl you are 100% correct that the goal is to funnel as much money through the book and collect the 10% juice. Sportsbooks are now starting to take more proactive stances on games where they think they know the right side and are willing to lay a line that draws in lopsided action and are willing to play the percentages that they'll come out ahead. Books also know more often than not which side is going to be the public side and will skew the juice/line that way to make people pay a premium. You are also correct that the initial linesmakers are worth their weight in gold. I'm not sure if this is still the case as they've exited the US market but the book at Pinnacle used to be the gold standard and had the sharpest line/juice anywhere and I heard that lots of other books would simply copy Pinny's line moves. Here's a fun article that talks a bit about the line making process. https://www.sportsinsights.com/betting-tools/sportsbook-profit-margins/ As for the NU line, I agree with Severe that it probably ends up around -3. It would take a mountain of one sided money/key injury to move it past that key number. I don't gamble on others potential performance, so I don't really know current sports book trends. That is news to me that sportsbooks are basically wagering themselves, now. I'll play Blackjack if my brother drags me to a casino, that's about it. I will wager on my own performance, though. I appreciate your perspective and learning something. 1 Quote Link to comment
everybody knows my name Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 43 minutes ago, teachercd said: What is a pecker? One of my very favorite British expressions. https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/217400.html Quote Link to comment
MyBloodIsRed16 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 It's obvious that Vegas controls the reffing bias mentioned in another thread and they are calling for a cease fire from the refs for this game Quote Link to comment
Head Coach Scott Frost Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Vegas understands that you learn more in a loss than a win, so the accrued knowledge that Nebraska now has easily outweighs everyone else. 1 Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 39 minutes ago, Head Coach Scott Frost said: Vegas understands that you learn more in a loss than a win, so the accrued knowledge that Nebraska now has easily outweighs everyone else. Does that mean we can beat Alabama? We've definitely learned a lot more than they have this year. Quote Link to comment
Jason Sitoke Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 On 10/15/2018 at 10:16 AM, teachercd said: What is a pecker? 1 Quote Link to comment
admo Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 On 10/15/2018 at 10:52 AM, ScottyIce said: I honestly believe this is the first +1 I have ever given you. Idk, it sure felt like NW was a decent team too, and for a few moments on Saturday I was wondering if we were going to beat them by 20+ They ARE a good sound football team. No bones about it. I too thought we were about to blow it open. And win by 3 scores at least 1 1 Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.