knapplc Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 *IF* Biden runs, he will be just shy of 82 years old on Election Day. That's bonkers. 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said: I think I've expressed this to you, but because of the increasing Red-shift of rural America, it's likely that a Republican candidate has a 55% chance to win no matter the econmic conditions of the country or who the candidates are. Even in a hypothetical race between Herschel Walker (R) and the best Dem candidate you can think of, the odds are in Rs favor for systemic reasons. It doesn't matter what they do, say, their personalities, etc. I can explain why in a more detailed post if you'd like, but just know: it's systemic. Lastly, we need to put aside the nonsense that Biden won't or shouldn't run in 2024. If he's even remotely healthy, he provides Democrats far and away the best chance to win (45%?). Any other candidate lowers their odds considerably. NOTE: this is simply because incumbent candidates have an advantage, it has nothing to do with his quality as a President or the potential/lack thereof of Dem candidates. I guess what I am getting at is Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time? Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time? 1 Link to comment
Decoy73 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, teachercd said: I guess what I am getting at is Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time? Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time? Good question. As it stands now with the current events of weak gun control and Trumpism, I cannot think of a single Republican I’d vote for ahead of Biden. I don’t care how old he is. 1 Link to comment
suh_fan93 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 On 6/1/2022 at 10:08 AM, Dr. Strangelove said: And tax cuts for the wealthy is the superior alternative? Most of the time, Republicans don't acknowledge problems as even existing - like Climate Change - to even offer a contrasting policy choice. The party of ZERO answers. None. Zilch. They sure can yell and use fear as their MO however... Woof 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Decoy73 said: Good question. As it stands now with the current events of weak gun control and Trumpism, I cannot think of a single Republican I’d vote for ahead of Biden. I don’t care how old he is. Right, so where is the thought process of "a D won't win" Or are people just not being honest about their vote? 1 Link to comment
Lorewarn Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, teachercd said: Right, so where is the thought process of "a D won't win" Or are people just not being honest about their vote? The existential threat to our democracy isn't quite as immediate or explicit as it was when Trump was actually in office. Biden would probably win re-election if its against Trump, because people will mobilize against the cheeto, but if he doesn't win enough people will probably not bother after the exhaustion of the last few years. 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said: The party of ZERO answers. None. Zilch. They sure can yell and use fear as their MO however... Woof 9% inflation $5 gas Negative ROI for the markets since Jan 2021 nice platform you folks have there!! 1 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said: 9% inflation $5 gas Negative ROI for the markets since Jan 2021 nice platform you folks have there!! And, how would a Republican President change that? 1 1 Link to comment
suh_fan93 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: And, how would a Republican President change that? By banning books and attacking Trans gender kids and their families of course. 6 Link to comment
Dr. Strangelove Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 48 minutes ago, teachercd said: I guess what I am getting at is Why would Joe not get the same amount of votes or right at that number, a second time? Who voted for him last time that is not voting for him this time? He probably will. But the answer to Democrats systemic problems go to demographic shifts happening nearly all over the world. That is, nearly anybody with any semblance of upward mobility moves towards cities and away from rural areas. When people move to cities, those areas tend to vote for Democrats. The rural areas people leave behind become worse off economically and vote for Republicans. As a result of this shift, people are leaving states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc. They've become more and more conservative. From 2016 to 2020, Hillary had to win the popular vote by ~2.3% to win those states in 2016 while Biden had to win by ~4.4% in 2020. By 2024, it's likely Democrats would need 5.5%, a nearly impossible margin. A good example of this are former swing states like Iowa and Ohio, which are now simply unwinnable for Democrats. It's simultaneously true that those citizens are moving to states and turning them blue. However, there's an imbalance: young people are leaving MANY rural states but are moving to relatively FEW urban cities, like Phoenix or Atlanta. The number of states turning more Red outnumber states turning more blue. This matters because the Electoral College and Senate heavily favor geography in their electoral outcomes. To give this trend more context, by 2040 ~70% of Americans (producing nearly ~75% of GDP and nearly all useful tax revenues) will live in states represented by 30 Senators. If you think the division in this country is bad now, wait 2 decades for it to really heat up. 1 1 1 Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, teachercd said: Right, so where is the thought process of "a D won't win" Or are people just not being honest about their vote? I think a lot of people voted for "Not-Trump", if GOP runs someone without the baggage, Biden's # goes down significantly. 3 Link to comment
Dr. Strangelove Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: And, how would a Republican President change that? This time, I'm SURE Archy is going to provide solid reasoning for the most important issues underlying his vote. 3 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said: As a result of this shift, people are leaving states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc Between 2010 and 2020 growth rate: Nevada grew 15% = 1.5% per year Wisconsin grew 3.6% = .36% per year(probably because some are moving out and some are moving in) Pennsylvania grew 2.4% = .24% per year(same thing) US grew about .5% per year. So, one was above and the other two were below but not much. The population in the US just hasn't grown much over that time frame. I think there is a bigger shift to cities within those states from rural areas than a major shift out of those states to other states. Which, makes what you're saying true, but within states. 1 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: And, how would a Republican President change that? We already discussed the inflation piece and you keep asking. Why??? Go read what I’ve already posted to you. Also already posted about gas prices and how the admin hurts or better yet doesn’t help the cause. Go read those. Wish the adults we were promised would get here sometime soon 1 3 1 Link to comment
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