Economy

[BigRedBuster]

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[nic]

Deflation in China might not be fun for the US. One of our customers is going to lay off 1000s and delayed our project with them. Yet all this rosy economic news. Something doesn't add up. Maybe the shorts know....

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, nic said:

Deflation in China might not be fun for the US. One of our customers is going to lay off 1000s and delayed our project with them. Yet all this rosy economic news. Something doesn't add up. Maybe the shorts know....

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/16/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

I am actually very concerned about deflation and I have been for quite a while.  The feds can't keep rates high too long.  That doesn't mean things haven't gone in the right direction for a while now...thus the good news.  But, good news doesn't mean it's always going to be good news.

[nic]

11 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

I am actually very concerned about deflation and I have been for quite a while.  The feds can't keep rates high too long.  That doesn't mean things haven't gone in the right direction for a while now...thus the good news.  But, good news doesn't mean it's always going to be good news.

I am a bit surprised by deflation in China, and concerned. What surprises me is low unemployment with all the layoffs. Some say the people are moving from tech to automotive. Maybe. Or they are getting 2 months paid leave before officially becoming unemployed like our company does, and not much has hit the books yet.

[Archy1221]

#Bidenomics.  No wonder President Peters is polling so bad on the economy.  
 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

#Bidenomics.  No wonder President Peters is polling so bad on the economy.  
 

 

 

So the people who received two unexpected COVID payouts spent them? 

 

 

[commando]

32 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

So the people who received two unexpected COVID payouts spent them? 

 

 

i think it's more of the trumpers dipping into their savings to send to trumps "defense" funds

[Archy1221]

1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

So the people who received two unexpected COVID payouts spent them? 

 

 

And more 

[Archy1221]

#Petersnomics 

 

 

[RedDenver]

3 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

#Bidenomics.  No wonder President Peters is polling so bad on the economy.  
 

 

Zerohedge isn't a credible source, and I can't find the JP Morgan source for that chart (although I find a few other sites also showing it without a link to the source). The closest I can find is the personal savings rate here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-healthy-is-the-consumer/

 

 

That chart shows that people saved a lot of money and are now saving less, not that they spend all their savings. Here's a link to an analysis by the Federal Reserve that also shows a slowdown in saving rate and a loss of savings, not that it has all been spent (see Figure 5): https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/excess-savings-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-20221021.html

 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

19 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

#Petersnomics 

 

 

 

Huh. It looks like gas prices went up. 

[Archy1221]

18 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Zerohedge isn't a credible source, and I can't find the JP Morgan source for that chart (although I find a few other sites also showing it without a link to the source). The closest I can find is the personal savings rate here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-healthy-is-the-consumer/

 

 

That chart shows that people saved a lot of money and are now saving less, not that they spend all their savings. Here's a link to an analysis by the Federal Reserve that also shows a slowdown in saving rate and a loss of savings, not that it has all been spent (see Figure 5): https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/excess-savings-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-20221021.html

 

 

LOL….you call him not credible but use the same data 

 

I wonder if the $200 billion increase in CCdebt since 2021 is any indication of people’s cash balances.  

[Fru]

23 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Zerohedge isn't a credible source, and I can't find the JP Morgan source for that chart (although I find a few other sites also showing it without a link to the source). The closest I can find is the personal savings rate here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-healthy-is-the-consumer/

 

 

That chart shows that people saved a lot of money and are now saving less, not that they spend all their savings. Here's a link to an analysis by the Federal Reserve that also shows a slowdown in saving rate and a loss of savings, not that it has all been spent (see Figure 5): https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/excess-savings-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-20221021.html

 

 

Good points. Context matters. When a pandemic interrupts normal spending habits, the folks with the means to do so are of course going to put it towards savings. 

 

Prior to the Covid spike saving trends appear very stagnated. The giant spike in 2020 wasn’t the result of some illustrious Trump policy. It was because there weren’t any T Swift concerts or Amalfi coast trips to go on.

[Guy Chamberlin]

45 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

And more 

 

That would suggest the temporary relief couldn't totally prevent a dip in the historical trend caused by an unprecedented global economic crisis.

 

In a country with notoriously poor savings habits.  

That has since stabilized and is trending back upwards. 

 

While proving itself stronger and more resilient than almost any nation on Earth. 

 

Cheer up!