Popular Post knapplc Posted April 21, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted April 21, 2014 Remember the ecstasy back in 2007 when Bo was announced as our new head coach? We got the guy we wanted, the guy who would fix the defensive woes inflicted upon us by the worst Defensive Coordinator ever, Kevin Cosgrove. No more embarrassing losses, the return of the real Blackshirts, the defense would once again be something to be proud of. That's the bill of goods we were sold back then. Early on, it looked like that may actually be the case. We lost four games in 2008, but it was a transition year, and we only had one blowout loss (for the purposes of this post, "blowout loss" is defined as any loss by double digits). The next year, the Year of Suh, we only had one blowout loss. If we'd have had an offense, any offense, we may have won the conference, and with a good offense we likely could have been a national title contender. But recruiting mishaps and attrition (grades, injuries, etc) decimated those first few classes, and the coaching wasn't able to fill in the talent gap as those classes came to comprise more and more of the starting two-deep. In fact, the longer we've been in the Pelini Era, the worse the defense has gotten. We may owe Kevin Cosgrove a hefty apology. Since 2008, Pelini's first year, Nebraska has been blown out 14 times. Blowout Losses by Season 2008 - 2 2009 - 1 2010 - 1 2011 - 3 2012 - 3 2013 - 4 Perhaps the most alarming thing about our blowouts isn't the increasing regularity, it's the diversity of teams doing the thrashing. If it was just one or two teams that had our number, that would be (a bit) more understandable. But it's not; 13 different teams are responsible for those 14 blowouts: The 13 teams that have beaten us by 10+ in the Pelini Era Year - Opponent 2008 - Missouri 2008 - Oklahoma 2009 - Texas Tech 2010 - Washington 2011 - Wisconsin * 2011 - Michigan 2011 - South Carolina 2012 - Ohio State 2012 - Wisconsin * 2012 - Georgia 2013 - UCLA 2013 - Minnesota 2013 - Michigan State 2013 - Iowa Wisconsin (2011, 2012) is the only repeat offender. It's not as if Bo's defense has been trounced by one or two teams or coaches. Whatever the reason, whether it's skill or scheme or coaching or whatever, team after team has been able to figure this defense out, and score on it with alarming frequency. And it's not like the losses all happen on the road. Five times Nebraska has been blasted in Lincoln: Blowouts by location Year - Location 2008 - Lincoln 2008 - Norman 2009 - Lincoln 2010 - San Diego 2011 - Madison 2011 - Ann Arbor 2011 - Orlando 2012 - Columbus 2012 - Indianapolis 2012 - Orlando 2013 - Lincoln 2013 - Minneapolis 2013 - Lincoln 2013 - Lincoln Three of those blowout home losses happened last season. Four were at neutral sites (three straight bowl losses, and the 2012 Big Ten Championship) and five were true road games. Nor is it that Bo's teams are being beaten by great quality opponents. Shockingly, only five (about 1/3) of these blowout losses are coming at the hands of top-ten teams. Opponent rank by blowout Year - Rank 2008 - 4 2008 - 4 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 7 2011 - 20 2011 - 10 2012 - 12 2012 - 2012 - 6 2013 - 16 2013 - 2013 - 14 2013 - Nine of our opponents, including the last four straight, have blown out a Bo Pelini team when that opponent has been ranked outside of the top ten. An astounding five of those opponents were unranked when they blew out a Bo Pelini team. The records of these opponents doesn't paint a much better picture. We're not losing to top-tier teams, we're losing to teams that have mediocre records. Opponent Win/Loss Records Year - ( W - L ) 2008 - ( 10 - 4 ) 2008 - ( 12 - 2 ) 2009 - ( 9 - 4 ) 2010 - ( 7 - 6 ) 2011 - ( 11 - 3 ) 2011 - ( 11 - 2 ) 2011 - ( 11 - 2 ) 2012 - ( 12 - 0 ) 2012 - ( 8 - 6 ) 2012 - ( 12 - 2 ) 2013 - ( 10 - 3 ) 2013 - ( 8 - 5 ) 2013 - ( 13 - 1 ) 2013 - ( 8 - 5 ) Three of the last six opponents to blow us out by ten or more points have finished their season with five or more losses. Six of our opponents have had four losses or more, while only one opponent (2012 Ohio State) went undefeated, and only one more (2013 Sparty) had one loss. So, how does Nebraska compare to our opponents' opponents in those years? Not all that well, and the longer we go the less impressive those losses are. Only three of these opponents had a top-ten Strength of Schedule, and only one of the last ten opponents to blow us out had a top 25 SoS. Opponent Strength of Schedule Year - SOS 2008 - 10 2008 - 2 2009 - 56 2010 - 2 2011 - 53 2011 - 33 2011 - 29 2012 - 54 2012 - 39 2012 - 31 2013 - 13 (UCLA) 2013 - 60 2013 - 62 2013 - 49 The average SoS of the last ten opponents to blow out Nebraska: 42.3 The average margin of defeat in these 14 games is more than three touchdowns (22.9pts). Increasingly it's the defense at the forefront of the breakdown. Nebraska has scored on average 21 points in these losses. Over the last ten blowout losses that average climbs to 24 points per game. That's more than enough to win most every game, or at the very least to be competitive. The problem is that we're giving up more and more points as the Bo Pelini Era goes on. In those 14 blowout losses the defense averages 44 points allowed. Over the last ten games that jumps to 46 points allowed. In those last ten blowout losses, the fewest points allowed was 30. The "Blackshirts" gave up 35 or more points eight times in the last ten blowout losses alone. Over all 14 games they've given up 40 or more points nine times. Nine times? I don't remember them giving up that many points nine times. Well, wake up and smell the coffee, Husker fans! It's a fool's paradise. We're being led down the primrose path! Yet another dagger to the heart of Husker Fan - we're in increasingly rarefied air when it comes to points given up against these teams. With the exception of a few opponents, Nebraska gave up as many points as the dregs of college football these years. Nebraska's Points-Allowed Peers Year - Opponent - Who did they score this many points against? 2008 - Missouri - Scored 52+ on Illinois, SE MO St., Nevada, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State 2008 - Oklahoma - Scored 62+ on Texas A&M, Texas Tech, & Missouri 2009 - Texas Tech - Scored 31+ on North Dakota, Rice, New Mexico, Kansas State, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan State 2010 - Washington - Scored 19+ on Syracuse, Nebraska, USC, Oregon St, UCLA, Washington St, Nebraska 2011 - Wisconsin - Scored 48+ on UNLV, N. Illinois, SoDak, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue 2011 - Michigan - Scored 45+ on Minnesota, Nebraska 2011 - South Carolina - Scored 30+ on E Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska 2012 - Ohio State - Scored 63+ on Nebraska 2012 - Wisconsin - Scored 70+ on Nebraska 2012 - Georgia - Scored 45+ on Buffalo, FLA Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, GA Southern, Nebraska 2013 - UCLA - Scored 41+ on Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico St, Colorado, Washington, Virginia Tech 2013 - Minnesota - Scored 34+ on UNLV, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Nebraska, Indiana 2013 - Michigan State - Scored 41+ on Youngstown St, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska 2013 - Iowa - Scored 38+ on Western Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska For those of you scoring along at home, we were the victim of the most points scored by Wisconsin and Ohio State in 2012. In 2013, we were among such company as Nevada, New Mexico State and Colorado in being victimized by UCLA. We ranked right up there with UNLV, New Mexico State and San Jose State in giving up a boatload of points to Minnesota. We were among a few elite in giving up 41 or more points against Sparty, joining the ranks of Youngstown State, Indiana and Illinois. And most gloriously, we gave up more points to Iowa (that's 8-5 Iowa, mind you) than all their other opponents except for Western Michigan and Purdue. But lest you think that defense is the only side of the ball with problems, here's who scored around about the same points as we did against these juggernauts in those years... Nebraska's Points-Scored Peers Year - Opponent - Who scored this many points against them? 2008 - Missouri - Allowed 17 to Illinois, Nevada, Buffalo, Nebraska, OK State, Texas, Baylor, KSU, ISU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Northwestern 2008 - Oklahoma - Allowed 28+ to Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M & Oklahoma State 2009 - Texas Tech - Allowed 10+ to every opponent. 2010 - Washington - Allowed 7+ to every opponent 2011 - Wisconsin - Allowed 17+ to UNLV, Nebraska, Michigan St., Ohio St, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Oregon 2011 - Michigan - Allowed 17+ to Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio St, Virginia Tech 2011 - South Carolina - Allowed 13+ to E Carolina, Georgia, Navy, Auburn, Arkansas, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska 2012 - Ohio State - Allowed 38+ to Nebraska, Indiana 2012 - Wisconsin - Allowed 31+ to Nebraska 2012 - Georgia - Allowed 31+ to Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska 2013 - UCLA - Allowed 21+ to Nebraska, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Washington, Arizona St 2013 - Minnesota - Allowed 23+ to UNLV, San Jose St, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana 2013 - Michigan State - Allowed 28+ to Indiana, Nebraska 2013 - Iowa - Allowed 17+ to Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, LSU These numbers show us that, early on in the Bo Pelini Era when the offense was lacking, the majority of teams scored the same or more points against our blowout opponents as Nebraska did, meaning the defenses would have had to play superlative football to avoid those blowouts - and clearly they didn't. But as Bo's tenure wore on, fewer teams were scoring as much as we were, and when they did, for the most part they were pretty decent teams (with a few exceptions, of course). In 2012 the Huskers scored more points against against Wisconsin than any other team (31), and the funny thing is, the #2 scoring team on Wiscy that year? Nebraska (30) in the conference opener. Also in 2012, no team scored more points against undefeated Ohio State than the Huskers (38). And only three other teams, all SEC teams, scored as many points against Georgia that year as Nebraska. And yet, we lost those games. And four more blowout losses in 2013. Granted, those scoring deficiencies in 2013 can largely be attributed to the loss of Taylor Martinez, but that's small comfort in the overall picture here. So there's a bunch of stats thrown against the wall. What sticks? To me, it's this: That despite the excuses (valid or not is up for you to judge) of conference change, injuries to key positions, youth or whatever, it's a head coach's responsibility to field a competent team. Blowout losses are never acceptable. They are even less acceptable at a place like Nebraska, and they are nigh on unforgivable when the culprit is mostly the defense, and the head coach's area of expertise is stingy defense. I'd like to end this with some rah-rah "we're going to do it this year!" closer, but the bottom line is, if it isn't fixed by now, why would it be fixed next season? EDIT - Bye Bye Big XII has done a breakdown of turnovers in these games that makes a perfect addendum to this post. Scroll down in this thread or click HERE for his further analysis. 14 Quote Link to comment
OH HSKR FAN Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Going to be an enjoyable thread. The only thing I'm going to say is how often does this team turn the ball over on its own side of the field? 2 Quote Link to comment
QMany Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Quite the work you put in there, Knapp. Moral of the story, I'm tired of getting "blow outs," no matter the definition. Quote Link to comment
JJ Husker Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Well hell. That put the kibosh to even begin to think about drinkin me some Kool-Aid. Thanks knapp. Quote Link to comment
OH HSKR FAN Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I do think there is a hangover effect after turnovers it seems. Quote Link to comment
RedRedJarvisRedwine Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I can handle the number of blowouts if the number was trending down signifying improvement. Quick question. How many of those blowouts qualify because of situational end of the game turning the ball over in our end being very aggressive on defense trying to force a turnover allowing a pile on score type of thing. #apologiesfortherunonsentence 1 Quote Link to comment
ZRod Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I can handle the number of blowouts if the number was trending down signifying improvement. Quick question. How many of those blowouts qualify because of situational end of the game turning the ball over in our end being very aggressive on defense trying to force a turnover allowing a pile on score type of thing. #apologiesfortherunonsentence I think Iowa and MSU last year fall into that category. Quote Link to comment
Branno Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I can handle the number of blowouts if the number was trending down signifying improvement. Quick question. How many of those blowouts qualify because of situational end of the game turning the ball over in our end being very aggressive on defense trying to force a turnover allowing a pile on score type of thing. #apologiesfortherunonsentence I think Iowa and MSU last year fall into that category. I'd also add Michigan in 2011 Quote Link to comment
Landlord Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Good work and research knapp, and I pretty much agree with you except for your criteria of a blowout. Anything within two scores is not a blowout, in my eyes, and preferrably we could look at the context of each game since the most honest definition would be one centered around a lack of competitiveness. Looking at quick context through my own perspective, that list would look kind of like this: Year - Opponent 2008 - Missouri - Blowout 2008 - Oklahoma - Blowout 2009 - Texas Tech - Blowout 2010 - Washington - Weren't going to win this one, but a repeat opponent and lack of motivation still resulted in a 12 point loss. 2011 - Wisconsin * - Blowout 2011 - Michigan - Blowout 2011 - South Carolina - Were on the verge of blowing this game open the opposite direction before a Hail Mary and a fumble on the one inch line. 2012 - Ohio State - Only down one score over halfway through the third quarter. 2012 - Wisconsin * - Travesty. 2012 - Georgia - Gave them all they could handle for 3.5 quarters and got beat by 5 NFL throws by Aaron Murray. 2013 - UCLA - Showed that we had the ability to take them to town, and then ????? 2013 - Minnesota - Were down 4 points until a garbage touchdown in the final minute. 2013 - Michigan State - Hung with them for three quarters despite 5 turnovers. 2013 - Iowa - Meh. Maybe that's a positive slant, maybe not, but I think context is important. Even if we ignore context, though, I think a +17 point margin of victory is the absolute minimum in terms of being able to say a team blew another team out. WHich would make the list look like this: The 13 teams that have beaten us by 10+ in the Pelini Era Year - Opponent 2008 - Missouri 2008 - Oklahoma 2009 - Texas Tech 2010 - Washington 2011 - Wisconsin * 2011 - Michigan 2011 - South Carolina 2012 - Ohio State 2012 - Wisconsin * 2012 - Georgia 2013 - UCLA 2013 - Minnesota 2013 - Michigan State 2013 - Iowa Not that any of that means anything. Just a different defining criteria. 1 Quote Link to comment
Chaddyboxer Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I do think there is a hangover effect after turnovers it seems.You might be onto something sir...I feel turnovers on offense can really affect a team as a whole. However, it's up to the team to be mentally ready and resilient to turnover problems. I'd like to crunch some #'s sometime and find out a percentage of team's losses if they lose the turnover battle. Quote Link to comment
NUpolo8 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Good effort Knapplc. Plus one internet point to you. It really is astounding when you see those numbers stacked up like that. Quote Link to comment
Landlord Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I do think there is a hangover effect after turnovers it seems.You might be onto something sir...I feel turnovers on offense can really affect a team as a whole. However, it's up to the team to be mentally ready and resilient to turnover problems. I'd like to crunch some #'s sometime and find out a percentage of team's losses if they lose the turnover battle. Get Bye Bye Big XII on it. What you will find, though, is that Nebraska is an insane statistical anomaly in that regard. If you showed someone our turnover margin numbers as a blind resume, they would be stunned that we have won as many games as we have. 1 Quote Link to comment
JJ Husker Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 To piggy back onto where Landlord was headed, I too thought double digits didn't necessarily describe a blowout condition. It seems like 14 or 17 points is probably a better way to define blowout. So, I looked at the individual games and found 5 at 17 points or better. Sorry, but once you go past 17 points it matters little if you were in the game for 2 or 3 quarters or not, you still got your ass handed to you by the time it was over and that is a blowout folks. 2010 Washington bowl game 7-19 (12 pts) meh, who cares. We didn't care about that matchup as fans and it was no surprise that the team couldn't get up for it either. 2011 S. Carolina bowl game 13-30 (17 pts) I wouldn't classify this a blowout. That was a good team that we hung with longer than we should've. 2012 Georgia bowl game 31-45 (14 pts) I wouldn't call this one a blowout either. Hung in there better than I expected. 2013 Minnesota 23-34 (11 pts) I would call this a blowout, an embarrassment, and a huge failure on the part of the coaching staff. Plain and simple we got pushed around and out coached. I still don't know what the hell our Offense was trying to do with TM in there. Gut wrenching stupidity this one. 2013 Michigan State 28-41 (13 pts) I don't know about blowout but this is a game we could've and should've won. As disgusting as all those turnovers were, we were always within striking distance if we could've just forced a turnover or prevented 1 or 2 of our own. Sickening loss describes this better than blowout. Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I'd agree that 10 points is a bit kind. I'd put it at 3 scores (17 points), but there games that weren't nearly as close as the score indicated. Michigan State last year, for example. We could've beaten those guys, they weren't that much better than us. But thanks to our turnovers, the score was 41-21 until a garbage time touchdown with 10 seconds to go. Or say, a 16th ranked Nebraska team yielding 653 yards to NR UCLA (which would finish the season 9-5 and unranked); that game wasn't quite as close as it seems, either. Or in 2011, Nebraska clinches the game vs Fresno State with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, and yields 444 yards. Or 465 to South Dakota State, 2013. Or 602 to Wyoming in a handy win-turned-last-minute-scare. There's no easy, objectively pure way to condense the experience of several seasons into a few statistics, but we've all watched the games, and knapplc does as a good a job as possible with this breakdown, IMO. You look at the talent and think, that's easy, our defense is going to be way better this year. But then given the track record, you have to ask, "...but will it really?" who cares. We didn't care about that matchup as fans and it was no surprise that the team couldn't get up for it either. '10 bowl: that was a stunning poop laid on the field. If 'the players and staff just couldn't get up for the boring rematch' is really what happened, that's a huge indictment on the staff. '11 bowl, '12 bowl: I'd say they were blowouts. Like many other games in recent years, they were talented teams we proved we could hang with and even beat. But games are 60 minutes long, and we ended up getting worked over. 589 yards by Georgia. Quote Link to comment
Redux Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Well, a bunch of ugly numbers arent something any BoLiever wants to see. It's sobering to see the stats provided in the op. Even though I agree with Landlord about what classifies as a blowout, the numbers still arent pretty. Lets face it, we aren't exactly worrysome to anybodies national title aspirations and havent been since 2001. With all that said I would like to respond to knapps question: "if it hasnt been fixed by now, why would it this year?" Well quite frankly it has to. This is a year Bo cant afford to field a vanilla defense and a leaky offense. If he does, he is in trouble. We need a league title like theres no freaking tomorrow. That of course doesnt just grant us the rights to one though. So again why would this year be any different? We all watched the bowl game. The win meant more to some of us than it did to others and thats okay. But couple that with the strong strides in recruiting recently and its fair to say momentum is building. Not enough? Like Bo or not its pretty clear we were young and banged up last year. We didnt want a rebuilding year but thats what we got. If you dont feel the rebuild will be successful then by all means pass on the koolaid. Me, I love what I saw from the team moving into 2014. Im getting my big gulp washed to fill it tilo the brim with some of that sweet stuff. I think the corner was turned and not many people noticed. Ill keep the nasty stats at a safe distance and remember that above all I support the team. Bo is coach and I support him. Go big red. 1 Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.