Notre Dame Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Biden enters White House. Wonders when Barry will get there. 1 1 Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 16 hours ago, Moiraine said: Voting him out is off topic with this discussion - that's a prerequisite for Trump refusing to leave. If he wins the election the other part of the discussion is irrelevant. On the refusal to leave topic, he likely has a personal army now. I hope enough people will protest to overcome him refusing to leave, but I have my doubts. I look at Belarus and I think they will not get anywhere unless they turn the military against the president. The advantage we have is Trump has not been in charge for 30 years. Disadvantage is the GOP has done a wonderful job of painting all Democrats as socialists who want to destroy the country. Scenarios listed from best to worst: 1. Trump loses and leaves 2. Trump loses and won't leave but he's forced out legally 3. Trump loses and won't leave but he's forced out militarily 3. (tie) Trump wins and leaves in 2024 5. Trump wins and won't leave in 2024 but he's forced out legally 6. Trump wins and won't leave in 2024 but he's forced out militarily 7. Trump wins and won't leave in 2024 8. Trump loses and won't leave I put the tie in because if he's forced out militarily we might have a civil war which will just be people killing random people in the streets. Either the institutions we have will remove Trump if he loses, or we have the 2nd Amendment for a reason. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, RedDenver said: Either the institutions we have will remove Trump if he loses, or we have the 2nd Amendment for a reason. The people with guns will shoot the protesters. Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moiraine said: The people with guns will shoot the protesters. Everyone can have guns. That's kind of the point of the 2nd Amendment. 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 59 minutes ago, RedDenver said: Everyone can have guns. That's kind of the point of the 2nd Amendment. But the people who are going to be doing the shooting are the Trumpers and the victims are going to be the protesters. And even if Trumpers don’t take up arms, the military would still win. 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 So the question is - what issue will be on the voter's mind come Nov 3rd? Since Trump wants to be the law and order candidate and since he cannot win on the covid conversation or even the economy at this time, he has one leg to stand on - law and order. It is in his best interest to make this the subject at the forefront and at the center of the voter's concerns. So, this past weekend there have been more riots, more deaths, and more accusations going back and forth between the candidates. Trump wins either way - if Biden says TRump is stoking the flames of violence as he did this weekend,- the subject remains law and order. If we learned anything in 2016, tRump was a master at controlling the media narrative and grabbing a hold of the news cycle discussion. If the news cycle is all about law and order, even if it appears negative towards trump, Trump has won that news cycle. Biden has got to get the conversation going on trump's failures and get the news cycle to change its emphasis. As president, trump can affect the news cycle more than Biden can and he is using it for his advantage. Case in point: this poll and commentary by the Democracy Institute which has a libertarian (Cato Institution) bias and leans right to far right. One has to factor in this bias, but nevertheless, the poll should not be ignored. It shows Trump leading Biden in key battleground states and predicts a trump win in November. There were questions from the poll on Biden's mental state but not Trump's - which reflects a bias. I hope Biden can grab a hold of the narrative and change the discussion from that which favor's tRump's law and order emphasis. It is in Trump's best interest to keep the chaos going regardless of its negative affect on the nation. It is in Biden's best interest to show the failure of the tRump admin in a variety of ways and to also get people talking about the positives of Biden's proposals. The poll full results and internals are here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1329041/US-election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-latest-polling A small sample from the article: Quote Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)270 needed to win Trump = 319 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire] Biden = 219 Enthusiasm Gap?Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?” Trump voters = 82% Biden voters = 40% Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent? Trump voters: positive vote = 85%; negative vote = 15% Biden voters: positive vote = 34%; negative vote = 66% Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?” Trump voters: Yes = 3% Biden voters: Yes = 9% Poll Internals: Quote Poll Methodology The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from August 26th to August 28th 2020. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households. The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent. The poll additionally surveyed 500 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent; 450 likely voters in Minnesota with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent; and 400 likely voters in New Hampshire with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The state party identification turnout model for Florida is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 27 percent. The state party identification turnout model for Minnesota is: Democrats = 46 percent; Republicans = 39 percent; and Independents = 15 percent. The state party identification turnout model for New Hampshire is: Democrats = 28 percent; Republicans = 31 percent; and Independents = 42 percent. https://democracyinstitute.org/patrick-bashams-commentary-on-new-democracy-institute-poll/ Quote US election 2020: Trump handed huge boost as Biden makes major mistake – Exclusive poll DONALD TRUMP is on course for a clear victory in the US Presidential election after he opened up a three point lead over Joe Biden in an exclusive poll for the Sunday Express. Read the full story According to the latest monthly Democracy Institute (DI)/ Sunday Express poll President Trump has 48 percent of the popular support over former Vice President Biden’s 45 percent. In the key swing states the gap is even bigger with 49 percent for Trump to 42 percent for Biden giving the incumbent US President an almost unassailable seven point lead. Significantly, the latest poll shows that 21 percent were positively influenced to vote Trump after the Republican convention but a negligible eight percent were inspired to vote Biden after the Democrat convention. Trump is set to win in Minnesota 48 to 45, Florida 47 to 44 and New Hampshire, where he just held a major rally, 47 to 43. Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Moiraine said: But the people who are going to be doing the shooting are the Trumpers and the victims are going to be the protesters. And even if Trumpers don’t take up arms, the military would still win. That's a lot of assumptions about who has guns, who would shoot whom, and that the military is supporting Trump as a dictator. 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Geez, I thought we were trying to STOP with so many assumptions! Haha 1 Link to comment
knapplc Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 We absolutely need to be vigilant and VOTE, but Mr. Moore is cherry-picking polls. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/ It's less on "the party" and "the candidate" than Trump being an incumbent and having JUST gotten done with his national convention. Link to comment
commando Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 president he-man compared to joe biden 1 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, commando said: president he-man compared to joe biden Some of the LP stuff is kind of cringey, but dammit alright that's funny. Link to comment
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