Danny Bateman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Moiraine said: I read that one of the problems was they weren't weighting education enough and it was a big factor in how people voted last time, so they are weighting it differently this time around. And like others have said the % undecided is way different this time. The other thing is the polls days before the election were not that far off, and well within the margin of error. The ones saying Clinton was ahead nationally turned out to be correct. It was the predictions on battlegrounds which weren't correct but they were within the margin of error. In battlegrounds Clinton was up 1.1 on election day, but an election day poll would be based off of data from previous days, and it was 45.4 to 44.3. That's 10.3% undecided. That's a lot of undecided voters. Right now Biden is up 3.9% in battlegrounds with 5.1% undecided. At 7 days until election, Clinton was up 2.8% in battlegrounds with 11.0% undecided. I've read a lot about this. In 2016 polls, particularly state ones, weighted education incorrectly and dramatically understated the amount of non-college white working class voters that would turn out. The good state polls have since corrected this. Also, you're right there's much less undecideds this year. And the people that dislike both candidates are breaking quite heavily for Biden over Trump whereas they broke for Trump over Clinton last time. Also, as a matter of methodology, looking at individual state polling gives us a different look than averaging across battlegrounds. In other words, states like GA/TX/OH are all within the margin of error and thus more or less pure tossups whereas WI and my home state of MI are not particularly close at ~7 and ~8 points apart apiece. Biden's surest road to victory remains through the Rust Belt "blue wall" states of MI/PA/WI and now he's looking to expand his map in other tossup battleground states while Trump is playing defense everywhere. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said: I've read a lot about this. In 2016 polls, particularly state ones, weighted education incorrectly and dramatically understated the amount of non-college white working class voters that would turn out. The good state polls have since corrected this. Also, you're right there's much less undecideds this year. And the people that dislike both candidates are breaking quite heavily for Biden over Trump whereas they broke for Trump over Clinton last time. Also, as a matter of methodology, looking at individual state polling gives us a different look than averaging across battlegrounds. In other words, states like GA/TX/OH are all within the margin of error and thus more or less pure tossups whereas WI and my home state of MI are not particularly close at ~7 and ~8 points apart apiece. Biden's surest road to victory remains through the Rust Belt "blue wall" states of MI/PA/WI and now he's looking to expand his map in other tossup battleground states while Trump is playing defense everywhere. The added complication this year is the sitting president will try his damnedest to use the courts and if it gets to the Supreme Court we are likely screwed, so Biden can't just rely on the battlegrounds that are leaning towards him. I hope he can pull off Florida and/or Texas so it's so lopsided there won't be any question. 2 Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ulty said: These really, really good people either outright embrace racism, ignorance, and corruption; or they are willing to tolerate those things to the detriment of their fellow Americans. Which is it? Those are not the only choices. Link to comment
Ulty Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 40 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: Those are not the only choices. No? Please elaborate. The explanations offered by BB and Frantz refer to people who fall into the category of "ignorance." Really, it is a choice of embracing what Trump is all about, or being willing to overlook those things. What else is there, other than not understanding what he is about (which again, is ignorance). As voters, we overlook the flaws of our candidates all the time, because no one is perfect. Sometimes we have to decide which of those flaws are dealbreakers. For Trump voters: racism, corruption, and ignorance are simply not deal-breakers. 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 Trump has done a lot for the GOP: He has ended the GOP's heavy burden to keep Texas red as it is now trending towards Biden https://www.mediaite.com/news/just-in-nbc-news-predicts-texas-moving-toward-biden/ 1 Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Ulty said: No? Please elaborate. The explanations offered by BB and Frantz refer to people who fall into the category of "ignorance." Really, it is a choice of embracing what Trump is all about, or being willing to overlook those things. What else is there, other than not understanding what he is about (which again, is ignorance). As voters, we overlook the flaws of our candidates all the time, because no one is perfect. Sometimes we have to decide which of those flaws are dealbreakers. For Trump voters: racism, corruption, and ignorance are simply not deal-breakers. Like @FrantzHardySwag I have family, and co-workers, that are Trump backers due to his policies. Not racists. Not apologists. Not ignorant. Knowledge of the issues. Voted for Obama in 2008. Do not support Trump as a person. If you met them, you would like them. People you would be happy to have as a friend, and they would be the first in line to help anyone, of any color/creed/ideology. But they have been so turned off by the liberal agenda of the past 4-8 years, that they will still vote for Trump. 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 You know Trump has got to be going crazy behind the scenes https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/trump-pulls-florida-ads-as-cash-poor-campaign-enters-final-week Quote President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016. Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time. Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even. However, In the alt-universe that is the world of Trump we have this- as they steal Reagan's line that It is Morning in America with Trump being the sun. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/trump-campaign-ads-are-working-around-facebooks-election-rules.html Quote Though Election Day is a week away, President Donald Trump’s campaign appears to have a victory ad ready to go on Facebook. A video in the ad shows the president’s face superimposed on a sun, with a voiceover pulled from various sources. “It’s morning in America. Donald J. Trump is still president of the United States,” the video says. Flowers rise from the ground and open to faces, who scream, “NOOOO!” as the smiling president, now also a hummingbird, flits around. Quote The ads are visible in Facebook’s political ads library, a database of all political ads that run on Facebook, even though they’re not currently being paid to run in people’s News Feeds. But all the ads in the library did run at least temporarily in order to qualify ahead of Facebook’s new political ad ban that went into effect Tuesday. Facebook announced last month that it would not accept new political ads the week before the Nov. 3 election, starting Oct. 27. Advertisers were able to submit and run new ads until midnight Pacific Time on Monday. In its policies, Facebook says it does not allow “Ads with premature claims of election victory” if they’re related to voting around the 2020 election and are targeted to people in the U.S. 3 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: Like @FrantzHardySwag I have family, and co-workers, that are Trump backers due to his policies. Not racists. Not apologists. Not ignorant. Knowledge of the issues. Voted for Obama in 2008. Do not support Trump as a person. If you met them, you would like them. People you would be happy to have as a friend, and they would be the first in line to help anyone, of any color/creed/ideology. But they have been so turned off by the liberal agenda of the past 4-8 years, that they will still vote for Trump. same here 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 Could the polls be off? This article says if they are, it could help Biden as well as Trump - depending on location https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/polls-could-be-wrong-may-help-biden-not-just-trump-n1244753 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, TGHusker said: This chick was right to cry Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Moiraine said: This chick was right to cry I missed your point - please explain. Its late afternoon in Tulsa, work make my head grow dense Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Ladies, we're getting you're husbands back to work - we know you want the house to yourself all day so you can do your cooking and cleaning. 1 Link to comment
Ulty Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 47 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: Like @FrantzHardySwag I have family, and co-workers, that are Trump backers due to his policies. Not racists. Not apologists. Not ignorant. Knowledge of the issues. Voted for Obama in 2008. Do not support Trump as a person. If you met them, you would like them. People you would be happy to have as a friend, and they would be the first in line to help anyone, of any color/creed/ideology. But they have been so turned off by the liberal agenda of the past 4-8 years, that they will still vote for Trump. ok. So, for the reasons you stated, they are willing to overlook Trump's brand of racism and corruption. They have knowledge of what kind of man this is and choose to vote for him anyway. 3 1 Link to comment
commando Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 56 minutes ago, TGHusker said: You know Trump has got to be going crazy behind the scenes https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/trump-pulls-florida-ads-as-cash-poor-campaign-enters-final-week However, In the alt-universe that is the world of Trump we have this- as they steal Reagan's line that It is Morning in America with Trump being the sun. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/trump-campaign-ads-are-working-around-facebooks-election-rules.html same here the teletubby president Link to comment
Recommended Posts