Bracketology

[ScottyIce]

12 hours ago, HS_Coach_C said:

Virginia tech beats Duke and it's starting to look like Nebraska will need at least two wins in the big ten tournament to make it to the dance

VT was already in

[Cdog923]

21 minutes ago, VectorVictor said:

 

It's almost as if we need to have a tournament (or playoff?) just for the P5 conferences, and then we can have some fun, meaningless games for the non-P5 schools to take on P5 schools that didn't quite make the tournament/playoff cut. And then we don't have to worry about these dirty non-P5 schools messing things up.

 

 

 

/s

 

Love the sarcasm, but I don't *quite* think that's the angle PC was going for. 

[VectorVictor]

1 minute ago, Cdog923 said:

 

Love the sarcasm, but I don't *quite* think that's the angle PC was going for. 

 

No, I'm pretty sure it wasn't. However, it may not be the angle we need, but it's the angle that Gotham deserves. 

 

Or something like that. 

[Cdog923]

3 minutes ago, VectorVictor said:

 

No, I'm pretty sure it wasn't. However, it may not be the angle we need, but it's the angle that Gotham deserves. 

 

Or something like that. 

 

I'd post an appropriate, funny gif to go along with this, but Google's new changes to how images are linked makes that almost impossible. 

Work to do

Nebraska (22-9, 13-5 Big Ten)

(BPI: 62 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 33 | RPI: 58)

 

One reason why the Cornhuskers and their gaudy 13-5 Big Ten record are not in stronger bubble position is that Nebraska has beaten just one opponent that will earn an at-large bid: Michigan. It's possible fate has given Nebraska something of a break in that department.

If the brackets hold their form at the Big Ten tournament, the Cornhuskers will play the Wolverines on Friday afternoon in one quarterfinal (assuming Michigan wins on Thursday). No other Quadrant 1 opportunity was possible for Nebraska from any other potential opponent playing on Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Your chance has arrived, Cornhuskers.

 

Per: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022718/syracuse-orange-quit-life-edge-bubble

[HS_Coach_C]

9 minutes ago, ScottyIce said:

VT was already in

 

10 hours ago, HS_Coach_C said:

Probably, but Virginia Tech had an RPI of 57 before tonight and Nebraska's was 58. Their resume is definitely better, but we can use all the help we can get.

 

Every year there is a team that plays itself out of the tournament in the last week and one that plays itself in. We need some teams to fall apart or we're going to the NIT.

 

Also, of the teams you mentioned, only USC is considered in the tournament by Lunardi. We are currently not projected in, so teams in front of us need to lose. Beating Michigan might help us jump a team or two, but not five or six.

 

See my post from above.  They are likely in, but they were one of Lunardi's last four bye's.  If you think we'll get in by just having 1 or 2 teams in front of us lose, I think you're wrong.  We need a few other teams that are currently projected in the field to fall apart.  Sure Texas and Baylor might be out, but when a mid-major team steals their conference's bid, we'll get bumped down a spot.  All I was pointing out is that we need teams on the fringe to start losing games, and for the most part they aren't.

[ScottyIce]

15 minutes ago, HS_Coach_C said:

 

 

See my post from above.  They are likely in, but they were one of Lunardi's last four bye's.  If you think we'll get in by just having 1 or 2 teams in front of us lose, I think you're wrong.  We need a few other teams that are currently projected in the field to fall apart.  Sure Texas and Baylor might be out, but when a mid-major team steals their conference's bid, we'll get bumped down a spot.  All I was pointing out is that we need teams on the fringe to start losing games, and for the most part they aren't.

Didn't see that.

Yes, you are right, but I think teams that are that far ahead of us don't leave us enough ground to gain on them.

 

We need the teams that are in the first four out, and the last four in to lose and lose regularly while we beat Michigan.

Texas losing last night was huge for us.

[BIG ERN]

Only 4 of these teams are getting in. I think as of today we would be the last team in. I don't like how the B10 is done so early though, can only hurt our chances. We obviously will have to beat Michigan to get into the tournament.

 

ON THE BUBBLE

1. Louisville (19-10) 7th ACC: (1)Virginia, @ NC St
2. USC (21-9) 2nd P12: UCLA
3. Baylor (17-12) 6th B12: Oklahoma, @ Kansas St
4. Nebraska (22-9) 4th B10
5. Syracuse (18-11) 10th ACC: @ BC, (18)Clemson
6. UCLA (19-10) 4th P12: @ USC
7. Mississippi State (21-8) 3rd SEC: (16)Tennessee, @ LSU
8. Texas (17-12) 8th B12: (20)West Virginia 
9. Boise State (22-6) 2nd MWC: @ SDSU, Wyoming
10. Washington (19-10) 6th P12: Oregon St, Oregon
11. Utah (18-10) 4th P12: Colorado
12. Notre Dame (17-12) 10th ACC: Pitt, @ (1)Virginia 

[ECisGod]

15 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

Only 4 of these teams are getting in. I think as of today we would be the last team in. I don't like how the B10 is done so early though, can only hurt our chances. We obviously will have to beat Michigan to get into the tournament.

 

ON THE BUBBLE

1. Louisville (19-10) 7th ACC: (1)Virginia, @ NC St
2. USC (21-9) 2nd P12: UCLA
3. Baylor (17-12) 6th B12: Oklahoma, @ Kansas St
4. Nebraska (22-9) 4th B10
5. Syracuse (18-11) 10th ACC: @ BC, (18)Clemson
6. UCLA (19-10) 4th P12: @ USC
7. Mississippi State (21-8) 3rd SEC: (16)Tennessee, @ LSU
8. Texas (17-12) 8th B12: (20)West Virginia 
9. Boise State (22-6) 2nd MWC: @ SDSU, Wyoming
10. Washington (19-10) 6th P12: Oregon St, Oregon
11. Utah (18-10) 4th P12: Colorado
12. Notre Dame (17-12) 10th ACC: Pitt, @ (1)Virginia 

Of the 12 teams listed I would take NU over Baylor, Syracuse, Texas, Boise State, Washington Utah & Notre Dame.  I know that wouldn't put NU in the tournament, but most of those team shouldn't even be on the bubble.

[HS_Coach_C]

 

Here's a table of all of the at-large teams that are a 9 seed or lower in Lunardi's bracket along with all of the other teams he lists on the Bubble:

 

Team	D1  W/L	Conf. W/L	RPI	SOS	SOR	vs top 50	vs 100+	Remaining Games		Comments	Projection
*Alabama	17-12	8-8	44	8	58	6-5	5-3	Florida	@ Texas A&M	1 more win probably makes them a lock	IN
*NC State	20-9	10-6	48	59	31	6-5	11-1	@ GA Tech	Louisville	Probably already a lock	IN
*Missouri	17-11	8-8	42	28	52	4-6	8-2	@ Vandy	Arkansas	Lose next 2 and they should be sweating	IN
*Miami	20-8	9-7	28	58	25	4-5	13-1	@ N Carolina	VA Tech	Probably already a lock	IN
*Arizona State	19-9	7-9	39	64	56	3-3	11-1	Cal	Stanford	A loss to either team could hurt a lot	IN
*St. Mary's	27-4	16-2	43	197	42	1-1	23-2			Only 6 games against top 100 RPI teams…	IN
#Virginia Tech	20-9	9-7	57	89	22	5-8	13-1	@ Miami		Likely a lock now with a win over Duke	IN
#Kansas State	20-9	9-7	60	98	30	2-8	12-0	@ TCU	Baylor	A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry	IN
#St. Bonaventure	22-6	12-4	24	85	38	3-2	16-3	Davidson	@ Saint Louis	Even with 2 more losses I don't see them out	IN
#Providence	18-11	9-7	41	20	46	5-7	8-3	@ Xavier	St. John's	Lose next 2 and they might be sweating	IN
%Louisville	19-10	9-7	37	33	39	1-10	12-0	Virginia	@ NC State	Tough call, 1 decent win, no bad losses	IN
%Texas	17-12	7-9	52	23	41	6-7	10-0	W. Virginia		If they finish 4 games over .500 and get in…	OUT
%USC	21-9	12-5	29	46	54	1-5	12-1	UCLA		Very similar to NEB except higher RPI & SOS	IN
%Baylor	16-12	7-9	62	18	43	3-10	9-1	Oklahoma	@ K State	A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry	OUT
^Syracuse	18-11	7-9	45	15	53	3-8	11-2	@ Boston Co.	Clemson	A 1-1 finish might be enough for them	IN
^UCLA	19-10	10-7	53	66	63	4-4	11-1	@ USC		Loser of USC/UCLA is hopefully out	OUT
^Nebraska	22-9	13-5	58	128	33	1-5	18-1			Need to get the RPI down and top 50 wins up	IN
^Mississippi St	20-8	9-7	61	134	44	4-6	13-2	Tennessee	@ LSU	Beat Tennessee and they probably move in	OUT
^Washington	19-10	9-7	49	44	71	4-2	12-1	Oregon St.	Oregon	2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB	OUT
^Boise State	21-6	12-4	46	143	49	1-2	17-2	@ San Diego St	Wyoming	2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB	OUT
^Utah	18-10	10-7	55	67	67	4-6	11-1	Colorado		Beating Colorado won't do much for them	OUT
^Notre Dame	16-12	7-9	66	39	60	4-8	9-2	Pitt	@ Virginia	If they don't beat VA they're probably out	OUT
*	Currently projected safely in the field as a 9 or 10 seed
#	Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 byes as a 10 or 11 seed
%	Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 in
^	Currently projected out of the field

 

 

++ Note these are my opinions next to the data, not Lunardi's ++

 

Honestly I'm not sure if a win over Michigan is enough, but it might be close.  We need 4-6 teams in front of us to drop without anyone jumping us to feel safe even if some at large spots are stolen in conference tournaments. 

 

The most likely that I see:

Arizona State - I'm not as impressed with their resume as Lunardi is, need to lose 1 of their last 2 for sure, maybe both

Kansas State - An 0-2 finish and I think they'd be left out, even 1-1 I think they'll be close

Louisville - If they finish 0-2 it'll be close for them

Texas - As long as they lose to West Virginia and don't do much in the conf. tourney, I think they're out

USC - Beat UCLA and don't implode in the conf. tourney and they are probably in

Baylor - Lose their last 2 and I think they're out, go 1-1 it's probably close

Syracuse - Need to finish 0-2 for us to jump them

UCLA - I hope it's either USC or UCLA and not both

---

Edited February 27, 2018 by HS_Coach_C

[Minnesota_husker]

38 minutes ago, HS_Coach_C said:

 

Here's a table of all of the at-large teams that are a 9 seed or lower in Lunardi's bracket along with all of the other teams he lists on the Bubble:

 

Team	D1  W/L	Conf. W/L	RPI	SOS	SOR	vs top 50	vs 100+	Remaining Games		Comments	Projection
*Alabama	17-12	8-8	44	8	58	6-5	5-3	Florida	@ Texas A&M	1 more win probably makes them a lock	IN
*NC State	20-9	10-6	48	59	31	6-5	11-1	@ GA Tech	Louisville	Probably already a lock	IN
*Missouri	17-11	8-8	42	28	52	4-6	8-2	@ Vandy	Arkansas	Lose next 2 and they should be sweating	IN
*Miami	20-8	9-7	28	58	25	4-5	13-1	@ N Carolina	VA Tech	Probably already a lock	IN
*Arizona State	19-9	7-9	39	64	56	3-3	11-1	Cal	Stanford	A loss to either team could hurt a lot	IN
*St. Mary's	27-4	16-2	43	197	42	1-1	23-2			Only 6 games against top 100 RPI teams…	IN
#Virginia Tech	20-9	9-7	57	89	22	5-8	13-1	@ Miami		Likely a lock now with a win over Duke	IN
#Kansas State	20-9	9-7	60	98	30	2-8	12-0	@ TCU	Baylor	A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry	IN
#St. Bonaventure	22-6	12-4	24	85	38	3-2	16-3	Davidson	@ Saint Louis	Even with 2 more losses I don't see them out	IN
#Providence	18-11	9-7	41	20	46	5-7	8-3	@ Xavier	St. John's	Lose next 2 and they might be sweating	IN
%Louisville	19-10	9-7	37	33	39	1-10	12-0	Virginia	@ NC State	Tough call, 1 decent win, no bad losses	IN
%Texas	17-12	7-9	52	23	41	6-7	10-0	W. Virginia		If they finish 4 games over .500 and get in…	OUT
%USC	21-9	12-5	29	46	54	1-5	12-1	UCLA		Very similar to NEB except higher RPI & SOS	IN
%Baylor	16-12	7-9	62	18	43	3-10	9-1	Oklahoma	@ K State	A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry	OUT
^Syracuse	18-11	7-9	45	15	53	3-8	11-2	@ Boston Co.	Clemson	A 1-1 finish might be enough for them	IN
^UCLA	19-10	10-7	53	66	63	4-4	11-1	@ USC		Winner of USC/UCLA is hopefully out	OUT
^Nebraska	22-9	13-5	58	128	33	1-5	18-1			Need to get the RPI down and top 50 wins up	IN
^Mississippi St	20-8	9-7	61	134	44	4-6	13-2	Tennessee	@ LSU	Beat Tennessee and they probably move in	OUT
^Washington	19-10	9-7	49	44	71	4-2	12-1	Oregon St.	Oregon	2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB	OUT
^Boise State	21-6	12-4	46	143	49	1-2	17-2	@ San Diego St	Wyoming	2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB	OUT
^Utah	18-10	10-7	55	67	67	4-6	11-1	Colorado		Beating Colorado won't do much for them	OUT
^Notre Dame	16-12	7-9	66	39	60	4-8	9-2	Pitt	@ Virginia	If they don't beat VA they're probably out	OUT
*	Currently projected safely in the field as a 9 or 10 seed
#	Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 byes as a 10 or 11 seed
%	Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 in
^	Currently projected out of the field

 

 

 

Honestly I'm not sure if a win over Michigan is enough, but it might be close.  We need 4-6 teams in front of us to drop without anyone jumping us to feel safe even if some at large spots are stolen in conference tournaments. 

 

The most likely that I see:

Arizona State - I'm not as impressed with their resume as Lunardi is, need to lose 1 of their last 2 for sure, maybe both

Kansas State - An 0-2 finish and I think they'd be left out, even 1-1 I think they'll be close

Louisville - If they finish 0-2 it'll be close for them

Texas - As long as they lose to West Virginia and don't do much in the conf. tourney, I think they're out

USC - Beat UCLA and don't implode in the conf. tourney and they are probably in

Baylor - Lose their last 2 and I think they're out, go 1-1 it's probably close

Syracuse - Need to finish 0-2 for us to jump them

UCLA - I hope it's either USC or UCLA and not both

---

Really helpful information. I didnt realize how bad Louisville was against top 50.

 

I am hoping Texas and Baylor struggle and we can jump them. BIG12 is the basketball darling this year, but I think we are better than quite a few teams in that league.

 

It all starts with beating Michigan. If we do that we get a Tier 1 win. If we beat MSU we are in for sure in my head.

 

I honestly think we need to just say "Screw y'all and win the whole thing" MSU is the scariest team in our way. Purdue is really good but they seem inconsistent enough that we can maybe catch them.

 

 

[VectorVictor]

1 hour ago, Minnesota_husker said:

Really helpful information. I didnt realize how bad Louisville was against top 50.

 

I am hoping Texas and Baylor struggle and we can jump them. BIG12 is the basketball darling this year, but I think we are better than quite a few teams in that league.

 

It all starts with beating Michigan. If we do that we get a Tier 1 win. If we beat MSU we are in for sure in my head.

 

I honestly think we need to just say "Screw y'all and win the whole thing" MSU is the scariest team in our way. Purdue is really good but they seem inconsistent enough that we can maybe catch them.

 

 

 

Same could be said for Ohio State, to be honest. 

 

And it's just our luck that we get the craptacular side of the bracket. Michigan and (assuming we and they win), Michigan State?!?! Playing tOSU/Purdue is gonna seem like a letdown if we get by both Michigan teams. 

 

BTW, that's Lunardi saying we're 'IN' now after swearing up and down we're nowhere close to being in?  Wonder if Delaney made a call to someone in Bristol, CT...

Edited February 27, 2018 by VectorVictor

[HS_Coach_C]

18 minutes ago, VectorVictor said:

 

Same could be said for Ohio State, to be honest. 

 

And it's just our luck that we get the craptacular side of the bracket. Michigan and (assuming we and they win), Michigan State?!?! Playing tOSU/Purdue is gonna seem like a letdown if we get by both Michigan teams. 

 

BTW, that's Lunardi saying we're 'IN' now after swearing up and down we're nowhere close to being in?  Wonder if Delaney made a call to someone in Bristol, CT...

Those are my opinions, not Lunardi's.  Sorry if I wasn't clear.  I was just using the teams he had listed on the Bubble.

[Red Five]

Tweet storm on the SECs high RPI
 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Red Five

[GSG]

 

 

Sounds like football. SEC being rewarded for beating each other

[Moiraine]

I don't care what sport it is. If you have a metric that is supposed to order the teams from best to worst, winning % should be the #1 factor. Make it worth only 30% if you want, but the other factors should be worth less. And having opponent win % worth more is simply moronic.