Economy

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Born N Bled Red]

6 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

LETS GO BRANDON!!!! 

 

[ZRod]

6 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Seeing $4.39 at the stations on the way home, which means Costco is probably $3.99 as well.

[DevoHusker]

 

 

 

[funhusker]

1 hour ago, DevoHusker said:

 

 

 

This isn't a new way to "define" recession.

 

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/03/pdf/basics.pdf

[DevoHusker]

35 minutes ago, funhusker said:

This isn't a new way to "define" recession.

 

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/03/pdf/basics.pdf

 

There are differing views on the criteria. I've heard and seen online comments that the "common rule of thumb" standard was 2 consecutive Q in decline.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp#:~:text=The working definition of a,more frequently reported monthly data

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-economy-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-recession.html

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/white-house-says-second-consecutive-quarter-negative-gdp-unlikely-indicative-recession

 

https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/r/recession

 

Just seems odd timing to me that the WH would feel the need to get a clarification definition on record right now...no?

 

 

[funhusker]

Just now, DevoHusker said:

 

There are differing views on the criteria. I've heard and seen online comments that the "common rule of thumb" standard was 2 consecutive Q in decline.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp#:~:text=The working definition of a,more frequently reported monthly data

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-economy-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-recession.html

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/white-house-says-second-consecutive-quarter-negative-gdp-unlikely-indicative-recession

 

https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/r/recession

 

Just seems odd timing to me that the WH would feel the need to get a clarification definition on record right now...no?

 

 

Not odd at all.  Since opponents are chomping at the bit to say we are in a recession.

 

And the WH did admit that some believe 2 quarters of negative GDP makes a recession.  They are just saying they will use a more holistic approach.

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

2 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

Just seems odd timing to me that the WH would feel the need to get a clarification definition on record right now...no?

I don't find that odd.  There is a lot of recession talk right now and everyone is wondering are we in or going into a recession.  I would think the people in charge would want clarification on that.

 

What some people aren't realizing is that we are in an extremely different time right now.  Yes, GDP might be going down for two quarters.  However, we are still at extremely low unemployment and I don't see that changing.  Everyone is looking for employees.  Actually...begging for employees. But, there just isn't people out there to hire.  So, if the demand for their products goes down, it's very possible that people aren't going to lose their jobs.  It's just that those companies will stop looking for more people because they don't need them.  

Right now, we are seeing some cracks in our market.  There's a lot of talk about our market pulling back.  However, we have been looking for 15-20 employees for what seems like the last 18 months.  If we have a drop in demand, there's a chance I won't lay anyone off, I'll just stop looking for those 15-20 employees.

 

So, how does full employment play into a "recession"?  Usually, in a recession, unemployment starts climbing because people are losing their jobs.  I don't ever remember a time like this.  I would expect experts to start debating what a recession would look like in this environment.

[DevoHusker]

You both have more confidence than I do.

 

I've seen a lot of folks opine that we are in a virtual copy of what conditions existed prior to 2008. Will see if I can find examples.

[funhusker]

13 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

You both have more confidence than I do.

 

I've seen a lot of folks opine that we are in a virtual copy of what conditions existed prior to 2008. Will see if I can find examples.

I’m not confidant at all.  I just don’t care what they call it. 

[BigRedBuster]

5 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

You both have more confidence than I do.

 

I've seen a lot of folks opine that we are in a virtual copy of what conditions existed prior to 2008. Will see if I can find examples.

I'm not confident at all that we are going to stay out of a recession.  In fact, I'm very concerned about it.  What someone calls a recession compared to not a recession doesn't change reality.  

 

And, there are similarities to 2008.  High housing prices that could pop and rising gas prices that are soaking up everyone's extra cash.  

But, there are some huge differences too.  Mainly, the banking regulations.  I know bankers hate them.  I have friends constantly tell me over and over again how horrible they are as a banker.  But, back in 2006, the mortgage industry was basically the wild wild west.  I don't believe it's anywhere close to that bad right now.  At least it better not be.

[BigRedBuster]

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[teachercd]

14 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Wal Mart near me basically has tons of stuff on clearance, most of it is stuff I am not interested in but still, just aisles and aisles filled with deals.

[BigRedBuster]

Quote

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — By one common definition, the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a recession. Yet that definition isn’t the one that counts.

On Thursday, when the government estimates the gross domestic product for the April-June period, some economists think it may show that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter. That would meet a longstanding assumption for when a recession has begun.

But economists say that wouldn’t mean that a recession had started. During those same six months when the economy might have contracted, businesses and other employers added a prodigious 2.7 million jobs — more than were gained in most entire years before the pandemic. Wages are also rising at a healthy pace, with many employers still struggling to attract and retain enough workers.

The job market’s strength is a key reason why the Federal Reserve is expected to announce another hefty hike in its short-term interest rate on Wednesday, one day before the GDP report. Several Fed officials have cited the healthy job growth as evidence that the economy should be able to withstand higher rates and avoid a downturn. Many economists, though, are dubious of that assertion.