Mavric Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, ColoradoHusk said: I think that answer is yes. If it's a close game, those are typically 50-50 ball games. Frost has gone 1-2 against Northwestern with all of those games being close games. NU could very well be 3-0 or 0-3. If it's a close game, I don't think it favors either team. However, I think Nebraska has the better opportunity of making it a 10+ point game than Northwestern does. That's why I would put NU's win probability higher than Northwestern in this game. Yep. Just the annual reminder that it has been much more about Nebraska beating themselves than Northwestern beating us. Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern 2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468 2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301 2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326 2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290 2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333 2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388 2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475 2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487 2019 (W): NU - 319; NW - 293 2020 (L): NU - 442; NW - 317 Only in 2011 and 2017 did they really out-play us. We lost by 3 in 2011 and in overtime in 2017. A couple years have been close but most of the time we had a significant advantage in yards. But we turn the ball over and do enough stupid things to lose. 5 1 Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, Mavric said: Yep. Just the annual reminder that it has been much more about Nebraska beating themselves than Northwestern beating us. Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern 2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468 2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301 2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326 2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290 2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333 2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388 2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475 2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487 2019 (W): NU - 319; NW - 293 2020 (L): NU - 442; NW - 317 Only in 2011 and 2017 did they really out-play us. We lost by 3 in 2011 and in overtime in 2017. A couple years have been close but most of the time we had a significant advantage in yards. But we turn the ball over and do enough stupid things to lose. Interesting. I thought I'd take a look at turnovers: Turnovers vs. Northwestern (TO margin) 2011 (L): NU - 2; NW - 3 (-1) 2012 (W): NU - 3; NW - 0 (-3) 2013 (W): NU - 4; NW - 1 (-3) 2014 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (-1) 2015 (L): NU - 1; NW - 0 (+1) 2016 (W): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0) 2017 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1) 2018 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1) 2019 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (+1) 2020 (L): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0) The results are surprising in that the TO margin does not seem to correlate with who won. Nebraska is 1-1 when winning the TO margin, 1-1 when TO margin is 0 (as expected), and is 3-3 when losing the TO margin including winning twice when down by 3 TO's. Weird. 1 Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, RedDenver said: Interesting. I thought I'd take a look at turnovers: Turnovers vs. Northwestern (TO margin) 2011 (L): NU - 2; NW - 3 (-1) 2012 (W): NU - 3; NW - 0 (-3) 2013 (W): NU - 4; NW - 1 (-3) 2014 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (-1) 2015 (L): NU - 1; NW - 0 (+1) 2016 (W): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0) 2017 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1) 2018 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1) 2019 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (+1) 2020 (L): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0) The results are surprising in that the TO margin does not seem to correlate with who won. Nebraska is 1-1 when winning the TO margin, 1-1 when TO margin is 0 (as expected), and is 3-3 when losing the TO margin including winning twice when down by 3 TO's. Weird. Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win. Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome. 2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer 2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers 2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3 2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over 2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1 2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores 2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime 2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1 2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won 2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone 4 Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, Mavric said: Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win. Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome. 2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer 2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers 2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3 2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over 2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1 2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores 2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime 2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1 2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won 2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone Good analysis. 1 Quote Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Mavric said: Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win. Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome. 2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer 2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers 2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3 2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over 2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1 2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores 2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime 2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1 2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won 2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone what it boils down to is, if we play up to our potential and cut down on turnovers, we should win most of the games against them. 1 Quote Link to comment
whateveritis1224 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Mavric said: Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win. Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome. 2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer 2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers 2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3 2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over 2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1 2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores 2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime 2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1 2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won 2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone 2018 - We were leading by 2 scores and a lot of yards until things fell apart halfway through the 4th quarter 1 Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 hours ago, whateveritis1224 said: 2018 - We were leading by 2 scores and a lot of yards until things fell apart halfway through the 4th quarter Very true. And sad. Quote Link to comment
BIG ERN Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Now that Porter is out for the year NW basically has lost their entire team from last year. Back up RBs transferred, good DE transferred, DC retired, QB graduated along with best WR and two very productive LBs...they have a stud DB and that is about it now. 1 Quote Link to comment
suh_fan93 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Wow. That stadium definitely has some history but undoubtedly is dated. Al Capone at Northwestern vs Nebraska football game at Ryan Field (then called Dyche stadium) Oct 3rd 1931. 4 Quote Link to comment
MyBloodIsRed16 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said: Wow. That stadium definitely has some history but undoubtedly is dated. Al Capone at Northwestern vs Nebraska football game at Ryan Field (then called Dyche stadium) Oct 3rd 1931. My parents rented a house owned by Al Capone in Cedar Lake, IN. 1 Quote Link to comment
Caliborn72 Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 We open as 8pt favorites. 1 Quote Link to comment
Head Coach Scott Frost Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I feel very confident about beating them this year. I feel very confident about losing to them to start next season. 1 1 Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Not really sure where to put this, but this seems like a good enough spot. We knew we were bad at Special Teams, but I didn't know we were worst in the nation. 1 1 Quote Link to comment
Dogs In A Pile Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, knapplc said: Not really sure where to put this, but this seems like a good enough spot. We knew we were bad at Special Teams, but I didn't know we were worst in the nation. One metric where nobody comes close to matching DONU! And we thought it couldn't get any worse than the last couple of years 1 Quote Link to comment
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