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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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Biden up 11 pts in this poll which was the most accurate in 2016

https://news.usc.edu/174625/usc-dornsife-2020-election-tracking-poll-biden-lead-11-points/


 

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Two centers at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences have launched a daily nationwide poll to track Americans’ opinions about the presidential candidates.

USC researchers will base election forecasts on an updated version of methods used in their groundbreaking 2016 election poll, which tracked crucial inflection points in the election by following the same individuals over time. Data from the 2016 USC poll suggested late-breaking support among certain groups that contributed to Donald Trump’s surprise win in the electoral college.

“Our 2016 Daybreak poll was the USC debut of experimental polling methods pioneered by our team at Rand in 2012,” said Jill Darling, survey director of the 2020 Daybreak Poll, which is conducted by the USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research.

“We adjusted our model for the 2018 election and had great success predicting the congressional outcome. This election cycle we’ll be using that model, and two additional methodologies, to track voter support for presidential candidates. We are also asking voters which party’s candidate they’ll vote for in congressional races.”

Results are based on repeated participation of eligible voters in USC’s Understanding America Study, a probability-based representative sample of U.S. households. The researchers expect that more than 6,000 voters from their panel will respond to the poll every two weeks, with shifts in the data reflecting changing opinions.

The first full release of findings from the poll will be in late August, in which researchers will examine the impact of the pandemic on voters and take a look at differences between voting blocs in 2016 and 2020. An early peek at preliminary data among roughly 1,500 respondents who participated from Aug. 11-16, using the poll’s signature probability method, finds Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding an 11 point lead over President Trump.

 

 

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1 hour ago, commando said:

i assume there is no pardon available there since it's new york?

 

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

Likely. And he hasn't been convicted yet, so nothing to pardon yet. 

 

Aubrey Strauss is federal (Acting United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York), and presumably why Barr was trying to get rid of Berman, so a pardon is still in play.

 

Cy Vance is state-level (District Attorney of New York County, NY), which is why Trump is fighting so hard (and losing) the subpoenas regarding his tax records.

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3 hours ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

Whom can you trust if not the power lawyers of New York City?  

 

Amazing that another one of Trump's inner circle gets busted literally defrauding poor stupid rubes thinking they're helping one of his signature policy proposals and you still find a way to complain about the lawyers doing the busting.

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