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2019 Season Prediction Thread

2019 Season Predictions  

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This was asked about in another thread.  I know there was at least one thread where people were posting their game-by-game predictions but I couldn't find it on a quick look.  And I usually like to do one with a poll so we can see aggregate results.

 

So here we are....

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I'm hyped on the 10-2 Koolaid train, but have probably been beat down so much the past decade that I"m calling for us to flip from last year and go 8-4.  To be honest..I really had to grit my teeth to pick more than two losses.  Thinking about how Frost said he saw too many times when our guys weren't the biggest and strongest guys on the field.  Don't think we can change that with one additional recruiting class and off season.

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Ha, I voted for 11-1 but couldn't put my finger on the 1 so individually I picked all 12. I think we'll drop 1 or 2 somewhere along the way but I don't think the most obvious chance, tOSU, will be among the losses. It just seems crazy to say we'll be 12-0 or 11-1, almost as crazy as predicting a loss to any of 11 of those teams.

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9 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

Ha, I voted for 11-1 but couldn't put my finger on the 1 so individually I picked all 12. I think we'll drop 1 or 2 somewhere along the way but I don't think the most obvious chance, tOSU, will be among the losses. It just seems crazy to say we'll be 12-0 or 11-1, almost as crazy as predicting a loss to any of 11 of those teams.

 

 

Exactly how I feel. It's crazy to say 12-0 but when you look at each game individually, they all seem winnable assuming the first half of last season isn't indicative of how good the team is. I can't really pick the losses, but I picked 2 anyway.

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I look at that schedule and think every game is winnable based on how we finished the back half.  Throw in another year in the culture S&C etc......BUT, we lose like what seems 75% of our O production in Oz and Stan.  I'm hoping (expecting) JD and Mo to really step up.  Our D has got to be better.  Has to be.

 

I'd say 10-2, but based on my previous kool-aid drunk self, I'm guessing 8-4.  Just based on the past 15 years........

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1 hour ago, grandpasknee said:

I'm hyped on the 10-2 Koolaid train, but have probably been beat down so much the past decade that I"m calling for us to flip from last year and go 8-4.  To be honest..I really had to grit my teeth to pick more than two losses.  Thinking about how Frost said he saw too many times when our guys weren't the biggest and strongest guys on the field.  Don't think we can change that with one additional recruiting class and off season.

I have similar reasoning.  The program was driven off a cliff including misses in recruiting, severe lack of development and losing attitude resulting in 4-8 record (again) and 1 player invited to combine,  We're a few years from winning anything of substance. We still need to get back to liking to win which will encourage more effort and maybe by next year they'll be to a point where they don't enter game(s) believing they'll lose.  The last hurdle is the biggest since it has become ingrained in the program over the last 15 years.  Getting to the point where they expect and want to win every game could happen three seasons from now which is necessary to win some kind of championship.  I'll be satisfied this season if they are competitive in every game, play hard until the end of every game and show improvement over last year.  Without knowing what other teams are losing from this year I picked losses to OSU, Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota.

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1 hour ago, Head Coach Scott Frost said:

I think we should do this a couple times before next year.  I'd be interested to see how much more koolaid people drink the closer the season gets.

 

I think that was done a couple years ago.  I think it was a slightly different topic.  Maybe how do you feel about Riley/Pelini.  We took polls after spring practice, after fall camp, after the non-con and toward the end of the season or something like that.  @knapplc would probably remember.

 

If someone reminds me we might do the same here.  Now, after spring ball and right before the season starts or something like that.  Would be interesting.

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I went with 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State. I know that is overly optimistic, but it is reasonable with the schedule we have. The only other games that scare me are Northwestern and Iowa. So, 8-10 wins should be attainable.

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4 hours ago, lo country said:

BUT, we lose like what seems 75% of our O production in Oz and Stan.

 

We may be a year away from this statement being true just because those positions are so young, but with a scheme as good as this one and a returning QB, those positions should be plug and play.

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4 hours ago, lo country said:

Our D has got to be better.  Has to be.

 

The offense, with a healthy Martinez, will make a big jump. There’s very little to suggest otherwise. I think with an overall increase in talent level, and just general depth, the special teams units are mostly sorted out.

 

I can’t even pretend to pick a record until we see more from the defense. I want to see how the LBs shake out with guys like Dixon/Honas/Tanner and maybe Henrich/Hannah. Can the elder Daniels hold up in the middle? The outside CBs looked good at the end, but what about depth there and at Safety. There is so much promise at so many positions, but so many questions, too. They really need to make a huge jump or, rightfully, Chinander will have questions to answer.

 

I’m really confident we can average greater than 520 yards on offense, but concerned we may on defense as well.

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If Frost takes two different losing programs (Nebraska, UCF), and leads them both to undefeated regular seasons in year 2, he's the next Saban/Meyer. That would be unparalleled.

 

I'm not expecting it, but as others have said, it's not impossible with that schedule.

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7 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

I think that was done a couple years ago.  I think it was a slightly different topic.  Maybe how do you feel about Riley/Pelini.  We took polls after spring practice, after fall camp, after the non-con and toward the end of the season or something like that.  @knapplc would probably remember.

 

If someone reminds me we might do the same here.  Now, after spring ball and right before the season starts or something like that.  Would be interesting.

 

Yep. It was 2013. Opinion swung pretty crazily among those polls.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Yep. It was 2013. Opinion swung pretty crazily among those polls.

 

I miss firing coaches because they only won 10 games.

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I kept hearing "8 wins" for the 2018 season and we delivered half  of that (one being Bethune).  With that in mind, people saying 11 or 12 wins, Im going to go with 6 or 7, a bit more than half.  Until we can be consistent, every game is going to give you many "WTH" moments.  I just don't see it with such a young roster.  

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I picked 11-1 with the only loss to Purdue on the road. I think we get the jump on OSU and Wisconsin at home this year, that home field advantage will finally become real again. I wanted to pick 12-0 but didn't want to sound crazy. But c'mon, we can do it! 

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I don't really see anything remotely resembling a loss honestly.  Picked 10-2 with losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin, I guess?  That would probably knock us out of winning the west though which I don't think happens.  I'll stick with 10-2 but the losses will be random.

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15 hours ago, Mavric said:

This was asked about in another thread.  I know there was at least one thread where people were posting their game-by-game predictions but I couldn't find it on a quick look.  And I usually like to do one with a poll so we can see aggregate results.

 

So here we are....

IMO I'd be interested to lock down the poll results (maybe just before the spring game) and issue another poll just before the 2019 season to see how (if at all) the predictions change.

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I went with 9-3 and that is assuming AM stays healthy.  IMO we still don't have the pieces to put together an elite defense.  Until we have the guys to do that, we are going to lose some shootouts.  Heck, Illinois should have beat us last year if it wasn't for all their muffed punts. 

 

I do think we see a jump on that side of the ball hence the 9-3 hopeful prediction.  I think the losses will be random as others have mentioned but I picked OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin. 

  

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I dont see a for sure loss on the schedule. We could really break out this year. I voted 10-2 but think we will end up 9-3 or 12-0...hahahaha

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14 hours ago, The Murphinator said:

I went with 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State. I know that is overly optimistic, but it is reasonable with the schedule we have. The only other games that scare me are Northwestern and Iowa. So, 8-10 wins should be attainable.

This is almost exactly what I was thinking too but I might throw in Purdue along with NW and Iowa. 

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I don’t see more than 8 wins unless our D and ST make huge strides.  I also banned myself from drinking the koolaid this year so I’m taking a cautious approach.  The future is bright, but I still think we’re another year or two away from being really good. 

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7 hours ago, Decoy73 said:

I don’t see more than 8 wins unless our D and ST make huge strides.  I also banned myself from drinking the koolaid this year so I’m taking a cautious approach.  The future is bright, but I still think we’re another year or two away from being really good. 

 

 

I don't think our D or ST need to get a lot better for us to win a lot of games. I think they need to make moderate improvements. Our rankings in defense in the last half of the season were already quite improved for the most part. If our defense is ranked in the top 75 this season, we will win several more games than last season.

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The Iowa game will be our 375th sellout. We've won every other 25-game milestone in the streak. It's destiny.

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16 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

 

The Iowa game will be our 375th sellout. We've won every other 25-game milestone in the streak. It's destiny.

 

Ah, the Iowa game. Being 11-0 at Thanksgiving is going to be awesome!

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We won 4. Just about the lowest prediction here is 8, and that almost seems pessimistic.

 

I don’t know where to peg the target because it’ll depend somewhat on the offense, but 30 pts per game, which is around 80th most years, won’t hit these lofty targets. Frost’s stated goal is about 21 pts per game, with turnovers. 

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I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous. I agree that all of the games on the schedule are winnable, but with an uninspiring defense and new starters on the offense, we will have several close games. I chose 8-4 with losses to Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

 

Ohio State) I know we played them close at the shoe, but I believe they were playing below their potential during the middle stretch of the season. We did not get their best. With most of their coaches returning and the distractions eliminated, they will be a dangerous team. Plus they are stocked with more talent than everyone except 2-3 other teams in the country. 

Minnesota) Sure, we beat them last year, but that second half after the quarterback change was terrifying. They continued to improve after switching D-coordinators and finished the season with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and GT. Plus they were an extremely young squad, they will be dangerous in year 0. 

Purdue) This past loss did not feel that close to me,  we were not a threat by the second half. Their offense will continue to improve under Brohm. 

Wisconsin) Game felt similar to the Purdue contest. When was the last time we beat them?

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33 minutes ago, Caveman said:

I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous. I agree that all of the games on the schedule are winnable, but with an uninspiring defense and new starters on the offense, we will have several close games. I chose 8-4 with losses to Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

 

Ohio State) I know we played them close at the shoe, but I believe they were playing below their potential during the middle stretch of the season. We did not get their best. With most of their coaches returning and the distractions eliminated, they will be a dangerous team. Plus they are stocked with more talent than everyone except 2-3 other teams in the country. 

Minnesota) Sure, we beat them last year, but that second half after the quarterback change was terrifying. They continued to improve after switching D-coordinators and finished the season with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and GT. Plus they were an extremely young squad, they will be dangerous in year 0. 

Purdue) This past loss did not feel that close to me,  we were not a threat by the second half. Their offense will continue to improve under Brohm. 

Wisconsin) Game felt similar to the Purdue contest. When was the last time we beat them?

 

10 wins, with that schedule, is far from outrageous. 8-4 is obviously very possible as well. Anything less than 8-4 would be a failed season in my mind, and I think the staff and players would agree.

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1 hour ago, Caveman said:

I agree that all of the games on the schedule are winnable, but with an uninspiring defense and new starters on the offense, we will have several close games

 

I don’t know who will be playing on defense. A lot of the would be participants were injured last year. We would hope Darrion Daniels is a major contributor immediately from this class, but several others might be as well. By fall, we could see a significant number of players that didn’t see much, if any, time last year.

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52 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

10 wins, with that schedule, is far from outrageous. 8-4 is obviously very possible as well. Anything less than 8-4 would be a failed season in my mind, and I think the staff and players would agree.

 

 

You're right, I was spicing things up with hyperbole. All the games are definitely winnable, although I feel we will need a number of lucky breaks in order to win 10 or more, especially with our penchant for penalties and turnovers. 

 

 

Edit: In summary, 10+ wins is doable, but the fact that the majority of those polled believe we will achieve that is a bit shocking. 

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9 minutes ago, Caveman said:

 

 

You're right, I was spicing things up with hyperbole. All the games are definitely winnable, although I feel we will need a number of lucky breaks in order to win 10 or more, especially with our penchant for penalties and turnovers. 

 

 

Edit: In summary, 10+ wins is doable, but the fact that the majority of those polled believe we will achieve that is a bit shocking. 

 

Kool aid is typical this time of year:lol:

 

I wouldn't be shocked with anything between 8-4 or 10-2... Anything better or worse would surprise me a little.

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2 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

If 10 wins is doable, then 10 wins is not outrageous unless you work for Webster’s.

 

I never said 10 wins was outrageous 

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3 minutes ago, Caveman said:

 

I never said 10 wins was outrageous 

 

 

You said:

 

I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous.”

 

 

Do you know what 10+ wins means?

 

It means 10 wins or 11 wins or 12 wins or 13 wins or 14 wins or 15 wins.

 

By default, if 10+ is outrageous, 10 wins is outrageous. Picking 10+ wins instead of 10 increases the chance that someone is correct in their prediction. It’s less outrageous to pick 10 wins than it is to pick 10+ wins. There’s a higher probability to win 10+.

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18 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

You said:

 

I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous.”

 

 

Do you know what 10+ wins means?

 

It means 10 wins or 11 wins or 12 wins or 13 wins or 14 wins or 15 wins.

 

By default, if 10+ is outrageous, 10 wins is outrageous. Picking 10+ wins instead of 10 increases the chance that someone is correct in their prediction. It’s less outrageous to pick 10 wins than it is to pick 10+ wins. There’s a higher probability to win 10+.

 

As you pointed out, 10 does not equate to 10+. Personally, I think 10 wins is absolute best case scenario in year 2 and I'm not surprised that SOME people chose that in the poll, but I am surprised that roughly a quarter of participants did and even moreso that roughly another quarter chose 11/12 wins. I assumed the bell curve would rest lower on the graph.

 

So the fact that the majority (~54% currently) of those polled believe we will match or exceed my wildest team expectations is outrageous to me. 

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20 hours ago, The Dude said:

9 wins.  Losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

 

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12 hours ago, Caveman said:

I love the optimism, but a 10+ win season is outrageous. I agree that all of the games on the schedule are winnable, but with an uninspiring defense and new starters on the offense, we will have several close games. I chose 8-4 with losses to Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

 

Ohio State) I know we played them close at the shoe, but I believe they were playing below their potential during the middle stretch of the season. We did not get their best. With most of their coaches returning and the distractions eliminated, they will be a dangerous team. Plus they are stocked with more talent than everyone except 2-3 other teams in the country. 

Minnesota) Sure, we beat them last year, but that second half after the quarterback change was terrifying. They continued to improve after switching D-coordinators and finished the season with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and GT. Plus they were an extremely young squad, they will be dangerous in year 0. 

Purdue) This past loss did not feel that close to me,  we were not a threat by the second half. Their offense will continue to improve under Brohm. 

Wisconsin) Game felt similar to the Purdue contest. When was the last time we beat them?

Caveman’s right folks. Time to temper your expectations. This is a marathon. Not a sprint. We aren’t going from 4-8 to 10-2 in the Big 10. The right staff is in place and the culture is changing, but it needs a couple more years until we’re among the top tier, which is essentially what 10-2 is.  If I’m wrong and we go 10-2 I will gladly eat crow. 

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The reason so many publications have already put Nebraska in their Top 25 for next year is because this team was significantly better than 4-8 last year. Where Northwestern shouldn’t have won as many as they did, Nebraska shouldn’t have lost as many as they did. By pythagorean win expectation, which is a measure of how many wins a team should have expected based solely on points scored and points allowed, both Nebraska and Northwestern were about 2 games off (6 and 7 wins, respectively). Furthermore, Nebraska did a rather poor job converting yardage to points, so it’s a little more of a shift than even that would suggest. That’s also considering the full season’s stats, not just the last half. If we consider only the back half, Nebraska is about an 8 win team. 

 

When you consider an average second year coach improves by about 2 games, and top coaches quite a bit more, a more favorable schedule, a returning QB, and back to back quality recruiting classes, it’s not as illogical a jump as it sounds to go from 4 to 10. I’m not saying it will happen, I need to get a better idea of what the defense will be before I did that, but this is a rationale for why both local and national people have big expectations for Nebraska next year.

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I think we can safely say Nebraska should have won 3 more games last year.  Colorado, Troy and NW were winnable. In 2019 I'll predict we start 3-0.  The next 6 games will tell us what the season will be.  Illinois should be improved, OSU is always a big hurdle,  NW, Minnesota, Indiana and Purdue I hate to say it can all pose problems.  We close with Wisconsin Maryland and Iowa.  If I am optimistic and both the OL and DL improve and the D can get some turnovers we could be 9-3.  On the flip side, if we have injuries at key positions given our lack of depth, we could go 6-6 as much as it grieves me to say it.  I will predict we go 8-4.

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19 hours ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

Kool aid is typical this time of year:lol:

 

I wouldn't be shocked with anything between 8-4 or 10-2... Anything better or worse would surprise me a little.

This is exactly my thoughts.  I chose to vote for 10-2 because, well, that's what I'm hoping for (if not better :thumbs)

 

I also think every game is winnable with how they finished, but there are also 4 games that are definitely loseable (sp?)  I chose losses to OSU and Wisconsin just because those are the teams that Nebraska hasn't beat in a long time...

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are we still addicted to kool aid?.........huge improvement in this conference is not likely, everyone is going to be better........just like us.

7-5 or 6-6 are very likely...........8-4 would be  blessing. as usual, a bit of luck could swing the results by a game

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7 hours ago, brophog said:

 

The reason so many publications have already put Nebraska in their Top 25 for next year is because this team was significantly better than 4-8 last year. Where Northwestern shouldn’t have won as many as they did, Nebraska shouldn’t have lost as many as they did. By pythagorean win expectation, which is a measure of how many wins a team should have expected based solely on points scored and points allowed, both Nebraska and Northwestern were about 2 games off (6 and 7 wins, respectively). Furthermore, Nebraska did a rather poor job converting yardage to points, so it’s a little more of a shift than even that would suggest. That’s also considering the full season’s stats, not just the last half. If we consider only the back half, Nebraska is about an 8 win team. 

 

When you consider an average second year coach improves by about 2 games, and top coaches quite a bit more, a more favorable schedule, a returning QB, and back to back quality recruiting classes, it’s not as illogical a jump as it sounds to go from 4 to 10. I’m not saying it will happen, I need to get a better idea of what the defense will be before I did that, but this is a rationale for why both local and national people have big expectations for Nebraska next year.

 

 

Good points. A couple games slipped through our grasp (CU, NW) and the Troy game would have been a win with Adrian, but I would argue that some of our wins could have ended differently as well- they were not convincing. The Illinois game was a shootout and may have had a different outcome if they had not gifted us 5 turnovers (we gave 2 back) and multiple dropped passes. The Minnesota game was essentially over at halftime, but we were evenly matched after they switched quarterbacks. Its hard to take much away from the MSU game due to the severe conditions. Our guys fought hard, but that game felt like a coin flip. 

 

The yardage vs points discrepancy was frustrating, but improved throughout the season as we reduced our turnovers/penalties and our O-line developed chemistry. It took several games and personnel changes for the O-line to come together. 2019 is a new season with new faces at the skill positions and on the O-line. It's impossible to know how many turnovers or penalties the newcomers will commit. It's impossible to know the amount of time required, if any, before the O-line is able to maintain consistent execution- especially in the red zone. 

 

There are plenty of reasons for optimism and I think we will continue to improve as team, but there are many unknowns, unproven players, and lack of depth on both sides of the ball. I would love a double digit win season, but I have my doubts. 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Caveman said:

2019 is a new season with new faces at the skill positions and on the O-line. It's impossible to know how many turnovers or penalties the newcomers will commit. It's impossible to know the amount of time required, if any, before the O-line is able to maintain consistent execution- especially in the red zone.

 

Most of those newcomers are guys in the program - not guys getting off the bus in May. There’s no question these guys need to play well in order to hit some of these lofty win totals. Continuity in the coaching staff and at QB should help transition these guys.

 

The biggest newcomer for me is Darrion Daniels. He’s not a guy that gets into the backfield a lot, he’s a wide body that demands a double team and when he doesn’t get it he’s got a good enough swim to separate and cause havoc. Right now, Darrion is way ahead of his brother, but Damion has always showed potential. For me, when talking unknowns and things that have to go right for a big season, the defensive line and LBs are at the top of the list.

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I have us around 8-9 wins, though I officially voted for eight. Losses to Purdue, Minnesota, Ohio State. Wisconsin or Iowa would be the other potential loss to land in the eight win area. I could very well see borderline bowl eligibility, though, somewhere in the 6-7 win area.

 

I think the Top 25 prognostications and even the 10-win stuff is a bit too lofty at this point, but I can see where people are getting it from, especially the national folks:

- Nebraska will probably have the best QB on the field in every single game in 2019

- second year in a system (keep in mind, this is the first time in four years some of these players will have the same returning DC... that's really significant)

- two solid back-to-back recruiting classes, including a Top 15 caliber for this cycle

- the perception of the influx of talent is quite high, with more than 75 percent of the roster having been flipped since Frost arrived (that's remarkable)

- Oh, and ScoFro

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What are people seeing in Minnesota? I know they played better towards the end of the year, but it still feels like year 0 part 3 for them. I think losses are much more likely against OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and probably even Northwestern. I don't think we lose all of those, but I see them as tougher games than Minnesota.

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1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

What are people seeing in Minnesota? I know they played better towards the end of the year, but it still feels like year 0 part 3 for them. I think losses are much more likely against OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and probably even Northwestern. I don't think we lose all of those, but I see them as tougher games than Minnesota.

 

1. Minnesota dramatically improved after switching D-coordinators, which occurred after we played them, and finished the season with wins against Purdue, Wisconsin, and GT.

2. They shredded our defense after switching quarterbacks. That game would have been a thriller if Morgan started the entire game.

3. They were one of the youngest teams in the entire country, so I'm assuming their potential for improvement would be greater than most

4. Scott Frost is awesome and we will continue to improve, but don't sleep on Coach Fleck. What he did at Western Michigan was remarkable

 

Edit:

5. The game is at their place

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42 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

What are people seeing in Minnesota? I know they played better towards the end of the year, but it still feels like year 0 part 3 for them. I think losses are much more likely against OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and probably even Northwestern. I don't think we lose all of those, but I see them as tougher games than Minnesota.

I think they're benefitting from some late season pub much like Nebraska is. Their November started with an odd, inexcusable blowout loss to Illinois. But, they then throttled Purdue, lost a close game to NW, smacked Wisconsin and finished out the year by delivering Paul Johnson a big defeat in his last game. @Caveman also brings up some great points.

 

Admittedly, they're sort of all over the place as a program. The ebb and flow of their season last year is really interesting to look at overall because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

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