Iowa Game What did we learn?

[Packerhuskerfan]

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

I really didn't see any point in the game where either team clearly looked like they were going to win the game.  Until the last 4-5 plays.

Until the big run at the end (like clock work), the defense did look great in the 2nd half.  I'd say Iowa was the better team in the first half and Nebraska was the better team in the second half.  Nebraska had multiple chances, but their own stupid mistakes and questionable calls by the refs sank them.

[Guy Chamberlin]

1 hour ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Who's the third staff? Riley? He had some excruciating losses but also had a comparable amount of grit-it-out one score wins as well. Pelini was remarkably good in one-score games, so much so that a superstitious person would think we're just regressing to the mean in a painful way.

 

Riley was at least comparable. Beating a ranked Michigan State by one point in 2015 was gritty, but that was the same season with a Hail Mary loss to BYU a loss to Miami in OT, a one point loss to Illinois and a two point loss to Northwestern, and a single possession loss to #3 ranked Iowa. 

 

I could go back and look at the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but I don't feel like it. 

[Lorewarn]

26 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Riley was at least comparable. Beating a ranked Michigan State by one point in 2015 was gritty, but that was the same season with a Hail Mary loss to BYU a loss to Miami in OT, a one point loss to Illinois and a two point loss to Northwestern, and a single possession loss to #3 ranked Iowa. 

 

I could go back and look at the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but I don't feel like it. 

 

 

Riley's one score games:

 

BYU - L

Miami - L (OT) (although to be fair we were down 27-3 in that game and had no business even being close)

Southern Miss - W

Illinois - L (ugly as it gets)

Wisconsin - L (gut punch)

Northwestern - L

Michigan State - W

Iowa - L

UCLA - W

Oregon - W

Indiana - W

Wisconsin - L

Minnesota - W

Arkansas State - W

Oregon - L

Northern Illinois - L

Purdue - W

Northwestern - L

 

 

8-10 overall in one score games, and when you account for the fact that he and his staff just weren't very good coaches, it paints a much different picture than an unshakeable curse.

[BigRedBuster]

41 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Riley's one score games:

 

BYU - L

Miami - L (OT) (although to be fair we were down 27-3 in that game and had no business even being close)

Southern Miss - W

Illinois - L (ugly as it gets)

Wisconsin - L (gut punch)

Northwestern - L

Michigan State - W

Iowa - L

UCLA - W

Oregon - W

Indiana - W

Wisconsin - L

Minnesota - W

Arkansas State - W

Oregon - L

Northern Illinois - L

Purdue - W

Northwestern - L

 

 

8-10 overall in one score games, and when you account for the fact that he and his staff just weren't very good coaches, it paints a much different picture than an unshakeable curse.

Looking at this for one season, doesn't tell us much about a staff, especially when the program has had this problem for a long time.  But, when you get to the end of games and it's within one score, there's just way too much wacky things that can happen for a staff (long term) to have a dominating record in those games.

 

But, long term, I would think one score games should be somewhere around 50-50 for an average coach.  Good coaches will be win more than 50%.  Bad coaches will win less than 50%.

[deedsker]

I bet that good coaches are still probably only 60% or so of one possession games. They are more likely to avoid them all together. 

 

In Georgia's dominating run the last several years their record in one possession games is as follows under Kirby:

2023: 2-0

2022: 2-0

2021: 1-0

2020: 2-0

2019: 4-1

2018: 0-2

2017: 1-1

2016: 5-3

 

Total: 17-7 (3/year avg)

 

Harbaugh @ Michigan:

2023: 2-0

2022: 2-1

2021: 3-1

2020: 1-2

2019: 2-1

2018: 1-1

2017: 1-2

2016: 1-3

2015: 1-2

 

Total: 14-13 (3/year avg)

 

Ferentz @ Iowa:

2023: 5-1

2022: 2-3

2021: 4-1

2020: 1-2

2019: 3-3

2018: 2-3

2017: 3-3

2016: 3-3

2015: 5-1

2014: 3-4

2013: 3-2

2012: 2-5

2011: 2-2

2010: 2-5

2009: 4-2

2008: 2-4

2007: 3-2

2006: 1-3

2005: 0-3

2004: 5-0

2003: 2-0

2002: 3-1

2001: 2-4

2000: 2-3

1999: 0-4

 

Total: 64-64 (5.1/year avg)

 

 

 

[MyBloodIsRed16]

I think the key here is not to get into one score games.  That's would solve a lot of this mess

[Rauol Duke]

This is a better spot to talk about the "Ree" in "Country", and how Iowa fans always remove it. Shame seeing so many sellouts flocking to seat geek, it's sinful that is even allowed. Scalpers should have to work at sandbagging, I am a Doctor of Journalism damn it! 

[thexyz]

19 hours ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

I think the key here is not to get into one score games.  That's would solve a lot of this mess

 

Part of it I think is they've been paying too much attention to the game instead of just playing it like a good wrestling match. Not as players but a team that keeps on whittling. The wood is tough and grainy. You've got to have the mindset that you're going to lean into the grind. That is going to cause you to become even sharper still on and on play by play game to game. The game is played in the moment. 

 

It's like boxing. You really don't know what it's going to take to eventually prevail. It's successfully landing punches, avoiding them and responding after being hit. There's a confidence factor. With competence comes confidence. The more successful one is, the more confident. With that confidence, you are comfortable doing a larger variety of things. And, the confidence has to be sustained even when you get smacked and can smack back capitalizing on opportunities. Alright, I've got a gash above my eye, that's not going to deter me or us. I kind of rather enjoy it when our swords meet clanging. 

 

Patience and transitioning. You don't dictate what's given you but you do determine how you'll respond even while you don't know specifically what will be required as it comes to you. You've got to be have the ability to be variable. When to slow up, put the hammer down and everything in between. Ride the horse however it does. It's difficult to have a winning instinct haven't had won a lot. You're teaching a whole group to do it not just an individual. Things get tight, you overcome circumstances, there's learning. That's a hill we mightily struggle to get over, overcoming. 

 

How are we going to win? Whatever it takes. The team answers. There's no damned recipe to achieving the outcome. You have the ability to adjust and adapt whatever is thrown your way based upon sheer determination and having absolute faith in your coaches, teammates and training. There's a game plan sure but your opponent is going to do everything in their power to derail it. Being like water seems a simple enough task, now get a whole group of men doing it together. Tricky. 

 

There's blood and sweat all around and you look over across to the opponent and think, maybe it's time we send these guys back to the locker room losers. Instead of losing focus when challenged, you focus better still. Taking advantage of opportunities as they're presented trusting ourselves and each other. We aren't doing those things well enough now. 

 

Maybe having an "identity" is having cohesion. Doing whatever "it" is together well. Every "drop" working together where there's flow. The whole thing has got be better for it to gain greater momentum. Usually we focus on this or that when we'd it'd better serve us to look at the relationships within all the moving parts of the system.

 

Dang, what's up with these dudes? They don't let up. We just delivered a blow and not only are they not phased, they're are stronger yet. Our will is in the opponent's heads now. Click, click, click.  Doubt creeps in. Get started and keep on going! 

 

Being good is scary territory to negotiate too. But that's a topic for another time. lol Hopefully sooner, rather than later. 

[huskerfan74]

Just learned that we finished the season with the worst offensive production in 50 years. That is a testament to the wonderful work of coach satterfield under the great leadership of coach Rhule. Imagine how bad our offense would have been had we actually played some good teams. I am sure satterfield will fix our offense next year. After all, Rhule believes in him.

[funhusker]

13 hours ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

I think the key here is not to get into one score games.  That's would solve a lot of this mess

See!!!!  Pelini knew what he was doing.  Win the games you were gonna win, and just make sure the losses were ugly enough to keep fans happy!!….oh wait…

[Mavric]

6 hours ago, huskerfan74 said:

Just learned that we finished the season with the worst offensive production in 50 years. That is a testament to the wonderful work of coach satterfield under the great leadership of coach Rhule. Imagine how bad our offense would have been had we actually played some good teams. I am sure satterfield will fix our offense next year. After all, Rhule believes in him.

 

Yeah, our offense didn't play against any good defenses this year.

[Stumpy1]

2 hours ago, funhusker said:

See!!!!  Pelini knew what he was doing.  Win the games you were gonna win, and just make sure the losses were ugly enough to keep fans happy!!….oh wait…

And now we are losing to teams that Pelini beat regularly.  Would still take ugly losses and 9 win seasons over this s#!t show. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

16 hours ago, Rauol Duke said:

This is a better spot to talk about the "Ree" in "Country", and how Iowa fans always remove it. Shame seeing so many sellouts flocking to seat geek, it's sinful that is even allowed. Scalpers should have to work at sandbagging, I am a Doctor of Journalism damn it! 

 

Auspicious start, Duke. Curious to see how long you can stay in character. 

[gossamorharpy]

17 hours ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

I think the key here is not to get into one score games.  That's would solve a lot of this mess

I feel like over analyzing results in one score games is just a nice way to call out inferior talent. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that our ineptitude in one score games and OT games aligns with our general downward trend in talent in the program.

 

elite players step up and make plays when it matters. Particularly in the red zone or OT setting, we haven’t had a dude on offense really since ameer.  We’ve also been pitiful in 1 score games and OT since around Ameers departure 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

19 hours ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Riley's one score games:

 

BYU - L

Miami - L (OT) (although to be fair we were down 27-3 in that game and had no business even being close)

Southern Miss - W

Illinois - L (ugly as it gets)

Wisconsin - L (gut punch)

Northwestern - L

Michigan State - W

Iowa - L

UCLA - W

Oregon - W

Indiana - W

Wisconsin - L

Minnesota - W

Arkansas State - W

Oregon - L

Northern Illinois - L

Purdue - W

Northwestern - L

 

 

8-10 overall in one score games, and when you account for the fact that he and his staff just weren't very good coaches, it paints a much different picture than an unshakeable curse.

 

Fair enough. But if you're a fan feeling the cumulative effect of Nebraska finding ways to lose games both big and small, it definitely stretches back to 2015.

 

And while that might leave us yearning for the Pelini years, that just wasn't how it felt in the moment. Those were gut punches, too, where the team did well enough to matter before being blown out in all phases of the game when it mattered most, and ending the season irrelevant. Pelini teams didn't look like they belonged on the same field as their supposed peers, and that was distressing in its own way. 

 

Expectations have definitely shifted, and the next 9 win Husker coach will be greeted as a king. 

 

I know it sounds crazy, but I think we are one talented quarterback away. Just like a lot of teams.