Guy Chamberlin Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 9/2/2021 at 7:58 AM, Archy1221 said: She probably doesn’t play craps so she probably doesn’t know that her example isn’t helping her cause even though we know what she is trying to get across. take a straight line time log over the history of the Earth. Those 500 yr floods she talked about aren’t supposed to happen just once every 500 years like clockwork. Over time, on average, it’s a 500 year event (or so we say). There could have been a 2000 years where the flood didn’t happen, but three times over a 500 year span where it did happen. Same with craps. The odds of rolling box cars is 2.78% over time. However, there are plenty of instances were boxcars have been rolled 2 or three times in a row (I hit snake eyes four of five rolls last weekend). Using craps as her example, she is showing the randomness of relative short term events. She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos. While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. Sorry about your gambling problem. 1 Link to comment
Lorewarn Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 52 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said: Sorry about your gambling problem. That's really unnecessary. Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said: She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos. While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. Sorry about your gambling problem. Hey...don't crap (get it) on gambling. 1 Link to comment
Guy Chamberlin Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Lorewarn said: That's really unnecessary. He said he hit snake eyes four out of five rolls last weekend. That's a gambling problem. And also a joke. Link to comment
Lorewarn Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I hit snake eyes three rolls in a row once in Vegas. I've also played craps four times in my entire life. 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 5 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said: She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos. While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. Sorry about your gambling problem. Who has a problem? 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, Lorewarn said: I hit snake eyes three rolls in a row once in Vegas. I've also played craps four times in my entire life. That’s a very good thing on a crapless table. 1 Link to comment
Scarlet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Remind me of the last time a wildfire ripped through the Front Range....in late December. Wasn't there an unprecedented tornado outbreak in Kentucky this month too? Nevermind the Thwaites Glacier 1 Link to comment
admo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If you have 15 minutes... Interesting convo with Wes 1 Link to comment
nic Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Swing and a miss? https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-ethanol-worse-climate-than-gasoline-study-finds-2022-02-14/ 1 1 Link to comment
NebraskaHarry Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Archy1221 said: I'll be curious who will respond to this since I dont think there are many, if any, far left wingers in here. Or is this just a told you so moment by a far right Trumper trying to score a cheap point. 1 Link to comment
JJ Husker Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 56 minutes ago, Archy1221 said: So Russia funded climate activists, a climate they couldn’t care less about, to help create more demand for Russian natural gas? Color me shocked. Shocked I tells ya. 1 Link to comment
funhusker Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Archy1221 said: I don't know much about "fracking", but I think it's dumb on it's face for EU countries to ban something that I understand is necessary to tap into NG, but then continue to import NG from Russia. 2 Link to comment
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