The Environment

[RedDenver]

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

On 9/2/2021 at 7:58 AM, Archy1221 said:

She probably doesn’t play craps so she probably doesn’t know that her example isn’t helping her cause even though we know what she is trying to get across.

 

take a straight line time log over the history of the Earth.  Those 500 yr floods she talked about aren’t supposed to happen just once every 500 years like clockwork.  Over time, on average, it’s a 500 year event (or so we say).  There could have been a 2000 years where the flood didn’t happen, but three times over a 500 year span where it did happen.  
 

Same with craps.  The odds of rolling box cars is 2.78% over time.  However, there are plenty of instances were boxcars have been rolled 2 or three times in a row (I hit snake eyes four of five rolls last weekend).  Using craps as her example, she is showing the randomness of relative short term events.  

 

She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos.

 

While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. 

 

Sorry about your gambling problem. 

[Lorewarn]

52 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Sorry about your gambling problem. 

 

 

That's really unnecessary.

[teachercd]

2 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos.

 

While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. 

 

Sorry about your gambling problem. 

Hey...don't crap (get it) on gambling.  

[Guy Chamberlin]

2 hours ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

That's really unnecessary.

 

He said he hit snake eyes four out of five rolls last weekend. 

 

That's a gambling problem. And also a joke.

[Lorewarn]

I hit snake eyes three rolls in a row once in Vegas.

 

I've also played craps four times in my entire life.

[Archy1221]

5 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

She understood this perfectly well, and is indeed trying to illustrate the randomness and chaos of weather prediction, while acknowledging we are in a period of accelerating chaos.

 

While you can roll boxcars three times in a row and then not, you can't melt a glacier one day and have it restored the next. 

 

Sorry about your gambling problem. 

Who has a problem? 

[Archy1221]

32 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

I hit snake eyes three rolls in a row once in Vegas.

 

I've also played craps four times in my entire life.

That’s a very good thing on a crapless table. 

[Scarlet]

 

Remind me of the last time a wildfire ripped through the Front Range....in late December.   Wasn't there an unprecedented tornado outbreak in Kentucky this month too?   Nevermind the Thwaites Glacier 

[admo]

If you have 15 minutes... Interesting convo with Wes

 

 

[nic]

Swing and a miss?

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-ethanol-worse-climate-than-gasoline-study-finds-2022-02-14/

 

[Archy1221]

 

[NebraskaHarry]

12 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

 

I'll be curious who will respond to this since I dont think there are many, if any, far left wingers in here. Or is this just a told you so moment by a far right Trumper trying to score a cheap point. 

[JJ Husker]

56 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

 

So Russia funded climate activists, a climate they couldn’t care less about, to help create more demand for Russian natural gas?  Color me shocked. Shocked I tells ya.

[funhusker]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

 

I don't know much about "fracking", but I think it's dumb on it's face for EU countries to ban something that I understand is necessary to tap into NG, but then continue to import NG from Russia.