4skers89 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 49 minutes ago, Cdog923 said: Oh good lord. A bunch of you are headcases who don't know how to take a joke. Joke or not, it was an interesting stat. You're just figuring out we're head cases? Welcome to the board! Link to comment
knapplc Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, Cdog923 said: Oh good lord. A bunch of you are headcases who don't know how to take a joke. It's on me for not understanding that nobody is in the mood for jokes right now. I attempted to have a little lighthearted thread, but people are (justifiably) unhappy and aren't ready for it. This would have been better in the off season when people calm down. 3 Link to comment
Cdog923 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 1 minute ago, 4skers89 said: Joke or not, it was an interesting stat. You're just figuring out we're head cases? Welcome to the board! Link to comment
ADS Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 I thought it was a funny joke. 2 Link to comment
4skers89 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, knapplc said: It's on me for not understanding that nobody is in the mood for jokes right now. I attempted to have a little lighthearted thread, but people are (justifiably) unhappy and aren't ready for it. This would have been better in the off season when people calm down. Please no jokes related to coaches while we're deciding our next HC. This is serious stuff! I think we can agree that jokes about "old" knapplc are OK. Haven't heard one of those for awhile. Link to comment
4skers89 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 hours ago, lo country said: I'm sure if you look at UCF they do not abandon the run when it nets 1-2 yards....They scheme throughout the game and adjust. I think you're on to something. 61% of our rushing yards come from 1st down runs. For UCF it is 48%. Even though we run 5% more often on 1st down that leaves 8% difference in non 1st down rushing yards. I don't see how run the damn ball guy could get upset over that. Link to comment
Head Coach Scott Frost Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Guys, 66% - 62% is a 4% difference. That means out of 25 first down plays UCF runs the ball one fewer time. That plus the image I thought it was an obvious joke Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 What bothers me is that too often Langs will call a 'bomb' on 1st down. We miss it. We then either (1) run up the middle on 2nd down and it is now 3rd and 8 or (2) we throw pass on 2nd, and then need to pass on 3rd down. So many 2nd and longs due to poor play calling on 1st down. I'll admit, I haven't studied it factually but it sure feels that way in watching the game that we have way too many 2nd / 3rds and long. Which I believe is due to poor play calling on first down after we get the ball. Link to comment
VectorVictor Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, TGHusker said: What bothers me is that too often Langs will call a 'bomb' on 1st down. We miss it. We then either (1) run up the middle on 2nd down and it is now 3rd and 8 or (2) we throw pass on 2nd, and then need to pass on 3rd down. So many 2nd and longs due to poor play calling on 1st down. I'll admit, I haven't studied it factually but it sure feels that way in watching the game that we have way too many 2nd / 3rds and long. Which I believe is due to poor play calling on first down after we get the ball. Kinda makes you wonder how many of those YOLO bombs we attributed to Tommy actually belonged to 'Dorf... ...and we've needed stretch/boundary runs that aren't jet sweeps/reverses since BYU 2015. I just don't know if it's against 'Dorf's religious beliefs, a running back traumatized him as a kid, or he just plain doesn't know how to execute a sweep/toss boundary run. 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 (edited) 47 minutes ago, TGHusker said: What bothers me is that too often Langs will call a 'bomb' on 1st down. We miss it. We then either (1) run up the middle on 2nd down and it is now 3rd and 8 or (2) we throw pass on 2nd, and then need to pass on 3rd down. So many 2nd and longs due to poor play calling on 1st down. I'll admit, I haven't studied it factually but it sure feels that way in watching the game that we have way too many 2nd / 3rds and long. Which I believe is due to poor play calling on first down after we get the ball. To the above I found this article which seems to support what I'm saying - too many bad 2nd downs. Boom or bust on 1st down: https://hailvarsity.com/s/2437/huskers-good-plays-are-bigger-in-2017-but-efficiency-still-lags It is pretty obvious Nebraska’s offense has been less successful this season compared to the previous two under coach Mike Riley, something not many anticipated. Through six games in 2017, the Huskers’ offense has a success rate of 40.14 percent. At this same point last season, it had a 48.53 success rate, more than eight percentage points higher. The 2015 team, which finished with a 6-7 record, had a 40.78 success rate through six games, a very similar rate to this year’s team, which has a 3-3 record. Typically, the average college football offense will be somewher close to 41 percent and very good offenses will have a rate above 45 percent. The 2017 Nebraska offense is far from that latter designation right now. Although, when it has been successful, it’s generally made more out of its opportunities compared to previous seasons. An interesting way to judge this is by calculating yards gained beyond success, or YBS for short. What we’re measuring here is how successful Nebraska’s successful plays have been. Are the Huskers staying on schedule by just hitting the success threshold, or are those good plays going for more yards beyond that? To do this, first, filter successful plays, meaning the offense gained at least 50 percent of the yards to go for first down plays, 70 percent on second and 100 percent on third and fourth. Now it gets a bit confusing, but I will do my best to explain. Of those successful plays, calculate the total yards to go for first down plays. The sum so far for 2017 is 1791. Knowing that total, any yards gained over 50 percent of it—or 896 yards—is YBS for first down. Make sense? Good. Calculate the YBS for each down, while increasing the percentage the offense must gain for the play to be considered successful. Eventually you’ll find the 2017 Nebraska offense has gained an average of 7.17 YBS on all downs combined. In 2016, the Huskers had a slightly lower average of 6.56 YBS. Their highest average under Riley and offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf was in 2015, when the offense had an average of 8.37 YBS. Separate it back to individual downs, and the 2017 offense has gained a higher average of YBS on first and third than both 2015 and 2016. The offense has had a significantly lower average of YBS on second down this season. One possible explanation for this is Nebraska has been either boom or bust on first down. Meaning if it busts, it’s left with a second-and-long, where the opportunity for a higher YBS minimalizes. On 104 second-down plays following a non-successful first down in 2017, the offense is left with an average of 9.88 yards to go. That average was 9.43 in 2015 and 9.35 in 2016. Not a huge difference, but still, a possible reason. Flip it to second-down plays following a successful first down and the offense has been left with an average of 3.38 yards to go in 2017, slightly higher than both 2015 and 2016. So what are all these numbers saying? Football is known as a game of inches. A few more feet or yards here and there can drastically change the final outcome of a game, or season. It sounds too simple, but if Nebraska can gain a couple more yards and turn those second-and-longs into second-and-mediums, it will better its chances of having a successful play. Combine that with its increase in YBS on first and third downs from the past two years and the offense might start to click. Something Nebraska desperately needs. Edited October 13, 2017 by TGHusker 1 Link to comment
4skers89 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, TGHusker said: What bothers me is that too often Langs will call a 'bomb' on 1st down. We miss it. We then either (1) run up the middle on 2nd down and it is now 3rd and 8 or (2) we throw pass on 2nd, and then need to pass on 3rd down. So many 2nd and longs due to poor play calling on 1st down. I'll admit, I haven't studied it factually but it sure feels that way in watching the game that we have way too many 2nd / 3rds and long. Which I believe is due to poor play calling on first down after we get the ball. Going through the play by plays it looked like a lot of our short drives started with an incomplete pass on 1st down. Incomplete passes killed a lot of drives. I'm stating the obvious but if we had a higher completion %, it would make a tremendous difference. 1 Link to comment
Mavric Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, TGHusker said: It is pretty obvious Nebraska’s offense has been less successful this season compared to the previous two under coach Mike Riley, something not many anticipated. Through six games in 2017, the Huskers’ offense has a success rate of 40.14 percent. At this same point last season, it had a 48.53 success rate, more than eight percentage points higher. But I was repeatedly told that the issues in previous years that all the issues were because we didn't have a QB to run their system and had too many injuries. 1 Link to comment
HuskerPowerVA Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 (edited) I think any thread that mentions Scott Frost will become multiple pages regardless of anything. Edited October 13, 2017 by HuskerPowerVA Link to comment
soup Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 You guys realize that Frost's offense is almost all shotgun. Even on 4th down. RTDB guy is going to have a stroke if Frost ever comes to Nebraska. (and don't say you won't, because it was happening when Beck was OC, and did very similar things) 2 Link to comment
VectorVictor Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, soup said: You guys realize that Frost's offense is almost all shotgun. Even on 4th down. RTDB guy is going to have a stroke if Frost ever comes to Nebraska. (and don't say you won't, because it was happening when Beck was OC, and did very similar things) To be fair re: Shotgun snaps on 4th down, a lot of that was because Beck had ill-suited personnel selected on 4th down conversion attempts (e.g. putting your slow, bruising back or FB out there five yards back to get one isn't the best strategy when your speedy, lithe RB is, as they can close the gap quicker to the LOS). Plus, we had Beck go away from successful formations (remember the Diamond?) to use single-back sets in obvious running downs. How many times did we beg for Beck to resurrect the Diamond (or hell, make it a main facet of the offense) only to completely shelve it against defenses it would have worked perfect against? There's more at play here than just the formations being selected--it's the play selection, execution, and personnel awareness that we haven't had in an OC since...well, since Frank was around. Edited October 13, 2017 by VectorVictor Link to comment
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