Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[Hilltop]

1 hour ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

 

Mortality rate of people who get the virus. Why would you do mortality rate of the entire population?

 

Oops just reread what you wrote. You are not using different numbers. Just off on math. 

 

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx

 

1809 deaths / 45031 cases = .04 = 4%

 

.04% would be .0004 

Antibody tests all over the world have proven that the actual number of cases is exponentially higher than what is being reported.  The vast majority of cases have gone unreported as the patients were either asymptomatic or they never became sick enough to warrant being tested.  Through much of the world, health care providers were only testing people if they were sick enough to be admitted to hospitals.  That is changing as tests become more readily available but it still won't account for all the asymptomatic cases.  Estimates through different areas range from 20% to as high as 90+% of cases are asymptomatic.  Nobody will ever know exact numbers as it's impossible to test the whole world population and even if we could, most tests have a 5%+ error factor. 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

10 minutes ago, Hilltop said:

Antibody tests all over the world have proven that the actual number of cases is exponentially higher than what is being reported.  The vast majority of cases have gone unreported as the patients were either asymptomatic or they never became sick enough to warrant being tested.  Through much of the world, health care providers were only testing people if they were sick enough to be admitted to hospitals.  That is changing as tests become more readily available but it still won't account for all the asymptomatic cases.  Estimates through different areas range from 20% to as high as 90+% of cases are asymptomatic.  Nobody will ever know exact numbers as it's impossible to test the whole world population and even if we could, most tests have a 5%+ error factor. 

 

Ok so just to clear this up. When you say 5 out of 1000 people or .5% thats your guess and not you just not understanding percentages? 

[Husker03]

7 hours ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

 

Ignoring what I assume is decimal errors, California is over 4% and New York is 5.978%. Thats also confirmed cases vs deaths not resolved vs deaths. Its also completely ignoring the deaths which will not be accounted for in which the ER is full and anyone has another type of illness or accident can't get proper care. 

Here you are arguing that Covid-19 mortality rates are 4-6% in our country, yes or no?  As in, 5 deaths out of every 100 people that contract Covid-19?

[Hilltop]

I am not "guessing" and I do understand percentages.  I do have a college education in biology with an extensive math background.  Here is some clickbait from the web.  There is a lot more in support of and against these findings.  The one thing they all agree on is that there are a lot more positives in society than what is being counted which results in significantly lower death rates.      

 

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

From NY Cuomo himself - "If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said."

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/24/21229415/coronavirus-antibody-testing-covid-19-california-survey

The Covid-19 antibody surveys found that the virus is more common and less dangerous than previously thought

The only thing we do know is that there are a lot more Covid-19 cases out there than what is being reported.  Studies from major universities believe the actual rate to be somewhere between .2 and .5% or 2-5 out of every 1000 patients.  

 

 

 

 

[Hilltop]

This got so off track - sorry mods.  Feel free to move it all.

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

17 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

Here you are arguing that Covid-19 mortality rates are 4-6% in our country, yes or no?  As in, 5 deaths out of every 100 people that contract Covid-19?

In Cali the reported numbers are just over 4%. I posted the link and even did the math for you

[Husker03]

2 minutes ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

In Cali the reported numbers are just over 4%. I posted the link and even did the math for you

What I am arguing is that Covid-19 does not have a 4-5% mortality rate, much closer to 0.5%. You are using numbers based on positive tests, but we know that only the sickest of the sick get tested so I am simply saying that if 100 people get corona virus and 60 of them show no symptoms, 35 of them show mild symptoms, 4 of them get very sick and one gets sick enough that they are actually tested.. That 1 positive goes into the stats, and if you run the cycle 100 times, of those positives, approx 4 will die. So, the actual mortality rate of the disease itself is much less than 4%, we dont know how much less officially. The mortality rate of the sickest of the sickest that actually get tested is 4%, but even that is up for debate based on the way things are qualified. Long story short, if a virus truly had a 5% mortality rate, it would be devastating to humanity in general. 1million positives in the US currently. If we even assume one out of every 20 people are tested, that is 20million true positives. at a 5% mortality rate, thats 1million deaths.. Instead we find ourselves at 55k deaths. Still not good, but nowhere near 5% disease mortality rate. 

[NUance]

Smokers Hospitalized Less Often for COVID-19

April 29, 4:07 p.m.   www.webmd.com

Few of those hospitalized with the coronavirus are smokers, and researchers are trying to understand why, according to VICE.

One hypothesis is that nicotine, which has anti-inflammatory properties, may interfere with the way that COVID-19 causes an overreaction of the immune system.

 

The hypothesis comes from Konstantinos Farsalinos, a cardiologist in Greece who focuses on tobacco-use reduction. Farsalinos noticed that few COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized in China were smokers, though about half of men in the country smoke.  LINK

 

======================================================  

 

So ... how many packs per day should I smoke?   

 

[skersfan]

Doctors from Stanford,  earlier this evening, stated the chance of dying from Covid in the state of California is .003%.  Too many crying wolf me thinks.  

 

Doctors are always over protective, and they are running the show.  

 

The good point I guess, traffic deaths are down, murders are down, robberies are down, but the sad part is spousal abuse, suicide is way up.

 

Hydro-Choroquene is being used on the front lines, and it helps tremendously if given during early on set of the virus.  This is fact.  I deal directly with a CNO in Riverside County, CA.  Very small chance of heart damage if the patient is monitored.  Quit buying what all the doctors are spewing.  Hell 90% of them won't go near a patient.  Most are setting at home doing phone appointments.  This is killing the hospitals, no money coming in for elective surgeries, IE knee replacements, hip replacements, heart attacks, stroke.  People are dying at home because they are terrified to go to the hospital because it is so overhyped, the nation may never recover from it.  Hell the world might not due to the stupidity of this.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Red Five]

4 minutes ago, skersfan said:

Doctors from Stanford,  earlier this evening, stated the chance of dying from Covid in the state of California is .003%.  Too many crying wolf me thinks.  

 

Doctors are always over protective, and they are running the show.  

 

The good point I guess, traffic deaths are down, murders are down, robberies are down, but the sad part is spousal abuse, suicide is way up.

 

Hydro-Choroquene is being used on the front lines, and it helps tremendously if given during early on set of the virus.  This is fact.  I deal directly with a CNO in Riverside County, CA.  Very small chance of heart damage if the patient is monitored.  Quit buying what all the doctors are spewing.  Hell 90% of them won't go near a patient.  Most are setting at home doing phone appointments.  This is killing the hospitals, no money coming in for elective surgeries, IE knee replacements, hip replacements, heart attacks, stroke.  People are dying at home because they are terrified to go to the hospital because it is so overhyped, the nation may never recover from it.  Hell the world might not due to the stupidity of this.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to get political, but 23k people have died in New York state from COVID.  New York state's population is 19.5M.  So 0.1% of New York state's population has already died due to COVID.  So that .003% number you spout makes no sense.

[skersfan]

IN the state of California.  There is a difference, even though California is the most populous state.

 

Every news cast is based in terror.  Control.  

 

I know a lot of people have died in New York.  But each state is different.  Most of us don't live in apartment buildings 10 stories high, living in filth.  We don't ride filthy subways too and from work.  We don't walk thru crowded streets where you can not even see the pavement.

 

Most of the Stanford information does not get highly publicized as it normally does not fit into the terror pattern the news media wants to promote.

 

The cure for this is turning out to be worse in the long run.  All of this was to flatten the curve, of the expected 1.2 to 2.2 million predicted to die from it.  That has been attained, with far less deaths than the medical field predicted.  But some states are extending the stay at home orders, making masks mandatory.  It seems to me to be about power.

 

We seem to be following like sheep.  

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

8 hours ago, Husker03 said:

What I am arguing is that Covid-19 does not have a 4-5% mortality rate, much closer to 0.5%. You are using numbers based on positive tests, but we know that only the sickest of the sick get tested so I am simply saying that if 100 people get corona virus and 60 of them show no symptoms, 35 of them show mild symptoms, 4 of them get very sick and one gets sick enough that they are actually tested.. That 1 positive goes into the stats, and if you run the cycle 100 times, of those positives, approx 4 will die. So, the actual mortality rate of the disease itself is much less than 4%, we dont know how much less officially. The mortality rate of the sickest of the sickest that actually get tested is 4%, but even that is up for debate based on the way things are qualified. Long story short, if a virus truly had a 5% mortality rate, it would be devastating to humanity in general. 1million positives in the US currently. If we even assume one out of every 20 people are tested, that is 20million true positives. at a 5% mortality rate, thats 1million deaths.. Instead we find ourselves at 55k deaths. Still not good, but nowhere near 5% disease mortality rate. 

Ok but you just made all that up. If you wanna say most likely the rate is lower then fine yes that is probably correct but making up numbers doesn't prove that. It's also just not true that only the sickest of the sick get tested and it's surely true that some people who are killed by it will never be tested. 

 

9 hours ago, Hilltop said:

I am not "guessing" and I do understand percentages.  I do have a college education in biology with an extensive math background.  Here is some clickbait from the web.  There is a lot more in support of and against these findings.  The one thing they all agree on is that there are a lot more positives in society than what is being counted which results in significantly lower death rates.      

 

 

 

This also I can agree with in premise but also is only shown in less than reputable studies what they think the actual numbers are.  We know for sure the reported cases vs deaths and yes obviously there are people who have caught it and not known or just didn't report it. This is also the with any common virus. 

[Mavric]

 

[twofittyonred]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:01 PM, 84HuskerLaw said:

well if there is no immunity from

revovery - how did anyone survive?

Top of the list of most uneducated things I've seen posted on the virus.   

[RedSavage]

On 4/29/2020 at 3:47 PM, Husker03 said:

What I am arguing is that Covid-19 does not have a 4-5% mortality rate, much closer to 0.5%. You are using numbers based on positive tests, but we know that only the sickest of the sick get tested so I am simply saying that if 100 people get corona virus and 60 of them show no symptoms, 35 of them show mild symptoms, 4 of them get very sick and one gets sick enough that they are actually tested.. That 1 positive goes into the stats, and if you run the cycle 100 times, of those positives, approx 4 will die. So, the actual mortality rate of the disease itself is much less than 4%, we dont know how much less officially. The mortality rate of the sickest of the sickest that actually get tested is 4%, but even that is up for debate based on the way things are qualified. Long story short, if a virus truly had a 5% mortality rate, it would be devastating to humanity in general. 1million positives in the US currently. If we even assume one out of every 20 people are tested, that is 20million true positives. at a 5% mortality rate, thats 1million deaths.. Instead we find ourselves at 55k deaths. Still not good, but nowhere near 5% disease mortality rate. 

 

15 hours ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said:

Ok but you just made all that up. If you wanna say most likely the rate is lower then fine yes that is probably correct but making up numbers doesn't prove that. It's also just not true that only the sickest of the sick get tested and it's surely true that some people who are killed by it will never be tested. 

 

 

This also I can agree with in premise but also is only shown in less than reputable studies what they think the actual numbers are.  We know for sure the reported cases vs deaths and yes obviously there are people who have caught it and not known or just didn't report it. This is also the with any common virus. 

@PasstheDamnBallGuy take the flu as an example.  This flu season, in the U.S., 1.3 million people have been tested.  Of that 1.3 M, 247,000 people have tested positive.  The CDC estimates there have been 24,000-62,000 deaths from influenza related illness so far this year.  On the LOW end that would be a death rate of 10%.  We all know the actual death rate is nowhere near that number.